FORM 425
Filed by General Motors Corporation
Pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act of 1933
Subject Company: General Motors Corporation
Commission File No. 001-00043
General Motors Corporation
2009 2014 Restructuring Plan
Presented to U.S. Department of the Treasury
As Required Under Section 7.20
of the Loan and Security Agreement
Between General Motors and the
U. S. Department of the Treasury
Dated December 31, 2008
February 17, 2009
GENERAL MOTORS RESTRUCTURING PLAN HIGHLIGHTS
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GMs Plan details a return to sustainable profitability in 24 months |
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Demonstrates GMs viability under conservative economic assumptions |
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Expands and accelerates the Plan submitted on December 2 |
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Lowers the Companys breakeven to a U.S. market of 11.5-12.0M units annually |
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GM is comprehensively transforming its business, globally |
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Brands, nameplates and dealer networks streamlined and focused |
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Productivity and flexibility gains enabling more facility consolidations |
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Shared global vehicle architectures creating substantial cost savings |
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Unprofitable foreign operations addressed |
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GMs Plan emphasizes the Companys continued focus on great products |
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Fewer, better vehicles in U.S. supporting Chevrolet, Cadillac, Buick and GMC |
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Renewed commitment to lead in fuel efficiency, hybrids, advanced propulsion |
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All major U.S. introductions in 2009-2014 are high-mileage cars and crossovers |
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GMs Plan calls for considerable sacrifice from all stakeholders |
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Bondholders and other debtors |
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Hourly and salaried employees, executives and retirees |
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Dealers and suppliers |
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Shareholders |
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GMs Plan addresses the requirements of the loan agreement with the United States Department of the
Treasury |
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Competitive product mix and cost structure |
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Compliance with Federal fuel efficiency and emissions requirements |
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Domestic manufacturer of advanced technology vehicles |
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Rationalization of costs, capitalization and capacity |
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Major progress made with the UAW and hourly employees; considerable progress made
with bondholders; additional work under way to achieve term sheet requirements and savings
targets |
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Positive net present value (NPV) |
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Repayment of Federal loans |
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Reflecting further deterioration in economic, industry and credit markets since December 2, GMs
Plan details need for additional Federal funding |
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Restructuring actions accelerated to mitigate this need |
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Partial repayment of Federal funding still slated to begin in 2012 |
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General Motors is vital to a robust U.S. economy, and a revitalized GM will greatly advance
Americas technology leadership and energy independence |
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Highly focused on a U.S. supply base and U.S. R&D, design and engineering |
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Directly and indirectly supports 1.3 million U.S. jobs |
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Committed to investing in advanced technologies and high-tech green jobs |
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A sound investment for U.S. taxpayers that will be repaid fully |
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
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11 |
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11 |
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15 |
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20 |
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26 |
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32 |
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35 |
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36 |
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39 |
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39 |
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APPENDICES |
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A. ROLE OF GM AND THE DOMESTIC AUTO INDUSTRY |
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42 |
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B. ECONOMIC AND INDUSTRY ASSUMPTIONS |
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47 |
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C. GM MARKET SHARE AND UNIT VOLUME PROJECTIONS |
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55 |
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D. FUTURE PRODUCT LAUNCHES |
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63 |
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E. GM U.S. BRAND AND NETWORK PLANS |
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72 |
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F. SALARIED COMPETITIVENESS |
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76 |
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G. VEBA / UNSECURED PUBLIC DEBT EQUALIZATION |
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79 |
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H. RESTRUCTURING PLAN MILESTONES |
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87 |
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I. 2009-2014 FINANCIAL PROJECTIONS |
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89 |
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J. ENTERPRISE VALUE AND NPV |
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94 |
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K. SUPPLY BASE DEVELOPMENT |
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100 |
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L. BANKRUPTCY ANALYSIS |
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102 |
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LIST OF TABLES
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Table |
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1. U.S. Industry Volume Scenarios |
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2. GM North American Marketing Strategy U.S. |
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3. Dealerships by Brand, Market Type and Throughput |
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17 |
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4. North America Productivity The Harbour Report |
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5. GM Fuel Efficient Models |
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6. GM Fleet Average Fuel Economy (MPG) |
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21 |
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7. GM U.S. Employment |
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23 |
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8. GM U.S. Manufacturing Operations |
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24 |
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9. GM North America Key Metrics |
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27 |
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10. GM North America Adjusted Operating Cash Flow |
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27 |
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11. GM Global Metrics |
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28 |
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12. GM Global Cash Flow |
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30 |
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13. U.S. Pension Funds |
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31 |
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14. U.S. TARP Loan Balance Under Various Volume Scenarios |
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32 |
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LIST OF CHARTS
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Chart |
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1. Loan Agreement Requirements |
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2. Restructuring Plan Summary of Key Changes |
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3. GM Technology and Fuel Economy Leadership |
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22 |
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4. GM North America Structural Cost Outlook |
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24 |
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5. Potential Funding Mix |
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36 |
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For information regarding exchange offers and safe harbors related to forward looking statements,
see Page 39.
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General Motors Corporation
2009-2014 Restructuring Plan
February 17, 2009
1. Introduction
On December 2, 2008, General Motors submitted a Restructuring Plan for Long-Term Viability to the
Senate Banking Committee and the House of Representatives Financial Services Committee. The Plan
was a blueprint for a new General Motors in the United States, one that is lean, profitable,
self-sustaining and fully competitive. Key elements of the December 2nd Plan included:
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A dramatic shift in the Companys U.S. product portfolio, with 22 of 24 new vehicle
launches in 2009-2012 being fuel-efficient cars and crossovers; |
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Full compliance with the 2007 Energy Independence and Security Act, and extensive
investment in a wide array of advanced propulsion technologies; |
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Reduction in brands, nameplates and dealerships to focus available resources and
growth strategies on the Companys profitable operations; |
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Full labor cost competitiveness with foreign manufacturers in the U.S. by no later
than 2012; |
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Further manufacturing and structural cost reductions through increased productivity
and employment reductions; and |
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Balance sheet restructuring and supplementing liquidity via temporary Federal
assistance. |
The net effect of these and other operational and financial restructuring elements was a plan to
restore GM North America (GMNA) to profitability on an adjusted Earnings Before Interest and Taxes
(EBIT) basis at U.S. industry sales rates of 12.5-13.0 million units, well below both actual sales
levels experienced in the past several years and consensus projections for 2010-2014.
Reflecting a dramatic deterioration in economic and market conditions during 2008, new vehicle
sales declined rapidly, falling to their lowest per-capita levels in 50 years. General Motors
revenues fell precipitously, in part reflecting escalating public speculation about a potential GM
bankruptcy, consuming liquidity that one year prior was considered adequate to fully fund the
Companys restructuring efforts. To bridge to more normal market conditions, General Motors
requested temporary Federal assistance totaling $18 billion, comprised of a $12 billion term loan
and a $6 billion line of credit (as a provision for the Downside scenario) to sustain operations
and accelerate implementation of the Restructuring Plan. Given the Baseline industry outlook
contained in the December 2 submission to Congress, General Motors planned to begin repayment of
the requested Federal loan in 2011.
Subsequent to December 2, the United States Department of the Treasury and General Motors entered
into negotiations for the requested Federal loans, reaching agreement on
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December 31, 2008. This agreement provides General Motors with up to $13.4 billion in 3-year term
loans to sustain operations through the 1st Quarter of 2009, providing necessary
liquidity support while the Company finalizes its Restructuring Plan. In consideration for this
temporary loan facility, General Motors is required to submit to the U.S. Department of the
Treasury, by February 17, a detailed restructuring plan for the period 2009-2014 that demonstrates
long-term viability.
Specifically, as Chart 1 below highlights, Section 7.20 of the loan agreement sets forth key
restructuring targets that GMs Plan needs to address in the February 17th and March
31st submissions to the U.S. Department of the Treasury.
Chart 1: Loan Agreement Requirements
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Federal Loan Requirements |
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February 17 Restructuring Plan |
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March 31 Progress Report |
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Status |
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Status |
Product Mix & Cost Structure
Competitiveness
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Detailed Plan Submitted
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Implementation Progress to be
Provided |
- Competitive Labor Cost Agreement
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JOBS Program Suspended
Major Progress Made Related to
Competitive Gap Closure
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Targeting Final Agreement on Competitive Gap Closure |
Compliance with Federal Fuel Efficiency and
Emission Requirements
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Compliance Confirmed in Plan
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Status Update |
Domestic Manufacture of Advanced
Technology Vehicles (Section 136
Applications)
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Two Applications Submitted to
Department of Energy
Third Application Being Developed
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Status Update |
Rationalization of Cost, Capitalization and
Capacity
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Detailed Plan Submitted
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Status Update |
- Agreement on 50% VEBA Equitization
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Negotiations Under Way; Confirming
Letter Contained in Appendix G
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Targeting Final Agreement |
- Agreement on Conversion of 2/3rds Unsecured
Public Debt to Equity
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Negotiations Under Way; Confirming
Letter Contained in Appendix G
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Targeting Commencement of Bond
Exchange Offer |
Financial Viability (Positive NPV)
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Positive NPV Demonstrated in Plan
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Status Update |
Repayment of Federal Loans
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Under Baseline Scenario,
Repayments Begin in 2012
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Status Update |
The Plan is to include evidence of progress related to both labor cost competitiveness and debt
reduction. Specifically, the loan documents require best efforts related to the achievement of
hourly and salaried wage compensation and work rule competitiveness by December 31, 2009;
conversion of at least half of future VEBA payments to equity; and a reduction in unsecured public
indebtedness by at least two-thirds by December 31, 2009 (with the actual exchange offer having
commenced by March 31).
This Restructuring Plan addresses the requirements set forth in the loan documents executed with
the United States Department of the Treasury on December 31, 2008.
2. Executive Summary
The automotive industry has been the backbone of U.S. manufacturing and a leading investor in
research and development for nearly a century. It is a significant factor in the
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U.S. economy,
employing 1 in 10 workers and a major purchaser of U.S.-made steel, aluminum, iron, glass, plastics
and electronics. It is an industry undergoing massive
change, and one that can be key to both transforming the U.S. economy and creating high-tech,
green jobs that support a healthy and growing middle class. Appendix A presents key facts about
the role of the automotive industry on the U.S. economy.
For most of this decade, General Motors has been pursuing a major transformation of its business,
working to improve the consumer appeal, quality, safety, and fuel efficiency of its cars and
trucks; to achieve cost competitiveness or advantage in labor, manufacturing, product development,
procurement and staff functions; and to address the Companys huge legacy cost burden. As noted in
the December 2 submission, the Company has made significant progress in all of these areas and,
even after rising oil prices and a slowing economy in mid-2008 cut automotive volumes by more than
20%, GM was confident in its ability to self-fund its continuing transformation.
In the last six months of 2008, housing price declines accelerated, foreclosures rose, credit
markets froze, job losses skyrocketed, and consumer confidence tumbled. As the economic crisis
intensified, automotive sales fell to their lowest per-capita levels in half a century, putting
automakers under enormous financial stress. All automotive manufacturers have been severely
affected, with most reporting significant losses in the recent quarter. Under these extraordinary
conditions, GMs liquidity fell rapidly to levels below those needed to operate the Company, and GM
was compelled to turn to the U.S. Government for assistance.
Since December 2, economic conditions have continued to deteriorate globally. This, combined with
public speculation about GMs future, has further reduced the Companys volumes, revenues, and cash
flows. In addition, the weakening financial markets have significantly reduced the value of GMs
large pension fund assets.
The Company has responded aggressively to these worsening economic and industry circumstances,
accelerating, and adding to, the restructuring elements contained in the Companys December 2 Plan
(Chart 2 below presents key Plan changes). The revised Plan comprehensively addresses GMs
revenues, costs, and balance sheet for its U.S. and foreign operations, and is based on
conservative assumptions. It also results in a business that will contribute materially to the
national interest by developing and commercializing advanced technologies and vehicles that will
reduce petroleum dependency and greenhouse gas emissions, and drive national technological and
manufacturing competitiveness.
7
Chart 2: Restructuring Plan Summary of Key Changes
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Plan Element |
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December 2 |
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February 17 |
2009 U.S. GDP Forecast (%)
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(1.0)
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(2.0) |
2009 U.S. Industry Volumes |
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Baseline
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12.0M
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10.5M |
Upside
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12.0M
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12.0M |
Downside
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10.5M
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9.5M |
2012 Market Share |
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U.S.
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20.5%
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20.0% |
Global
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13.1%
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13.0% |
Labor Cost Competitiveness Obtained
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2012
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2009 |
2012 U.S. Manufacturing Plant Count
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38
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33 |
2012 U.S. Salaried Headcount
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27k
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26k |
U.S. Breakeven Volume (Adjusted EBIT Basis)
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12.5-13.0M
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11.5-12.0M |
U.S. Brand Reductions Completed
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No Date
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2011 |
Foreign Operations Restructuring Comprehended |
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Sweden (Saab)
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No
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Yes |
Germany and Europe
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No
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Yes |
Canada
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No
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Yes |
Thailand and India
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No
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Yes |
Financial Projections Through
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2012
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2014 |
The revised Plan restructures the Companys business in the U.S. by concentrating on GMs three
strongest global brands (Chevrolet, Cadillac and Buick) and its premium truck brand (GMC); by
restructuring the retail distribution channel to achieve a strong, healthy dealer network while
preserving GMs historical strength in rural areas; by basing the product plan on fewer, better
entries; and by continued commitment to be a quality leader. The Company is accelerating the
timetable to achieve competitive costs and work rules to 2009, in line with Federal loan
requirements. The Company will close additional facilities and reduce employment beyond the
December Plan targets, and will continue to leverage already highly efficient manufacturing and
product development operations.
GM will also pursue accelerated restructuring of its Canadian, European, and certain Asia-Pacific
operations. While the Company intends to retain its global approach to conducting business,
additional funding will be required to sustain certain operations outside the U.S., given the
global economic slowdown also impacting these markets. The Company is also in discussions with
many foreign governments for funding support. Significant restructuring of the Companys
liabilities and balance sheet are also vital parts of this Plan, and detailed negotiations related
to restructuring of VEBA obligations and unsecured public debt are progressing.
Since the December submission, the Company has been engaged with the UAW, regarding competitive
costs/work rules and restructuring VEBA obligations, and advisors to an unofficial committee of
major bondholders with regard to conversion of unsecured public debt to equity. As of February 17,
the Company and the UAW have made significant progress on costs/work rules, which represent major
steps in narrowing the
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competitive gap. However, these revisions do not achieve all of the labor
cost savings comprehended in the Companys financial projections.
GM plans to report this progress to the U.S. Secretary of Labor who must certify GMs
competitiveness relative to the U.S. transplants. Management will continue to work with
the UAW with regard to competitiveness, and will work on additional initiatives to ensure GM
achieves the cost reductions and financial targets comprehended in the Plan.
With regard to both the VEBA and bondholder negotiations, while discussions and due diligence are
underway, restructuring agreements have not yet been finalized with either party at this point.
Negotiations will continue with the objective of achieving successful resolution of these matters
no later than March 31, 2009.
The net effect of all Restructuring Plan initiatives is a further reduced breakeven point, allowing
for profitable operations in North America (on an adjusted EBIT basis) with a U.S. industry sales
rates as low as 11.5-12.0 million units, compared to 12.5-13.0 million units in the December Plan.
The Companys operating and balance sheet restructurings are expected to generate positive adjusted
EBIT and positive adjusted operating cash flow for its North American operations in 2010 (with a
U.S. industry volume of 12.5 million units), with significant improvements occurring over the
2010-2014 period.
Globally, positive adjusted EBIT will also be achieved in 2010, with adjusted operating cash flow
approaching breakeven in 2011. Partially offsetting these results are restructuring costs
(including provisions for resolution of Delphi), debt retirements, and additional contributions to
the Companys U.S. pension plans that may be required in 2013 and 2014.
Financial ViabilityOne important measure of determining long-term financial viability is whether
the Company has positive Net Present Value (NPV). Based on the assumptions and methodology set
forth in Section 5.3 and Appendix J, the Enterprise Value of GM under the Baseline Scenario is
estimated between $59 billion and $70 billion. After deducting the Net Obligations of the Company
and adjusting for the pro-forma effects of the two-thirds reduction in public unsecured
indebtedness and 50 percent reduction in the UAW Hourly VEBA obligations (per the requirements of
the U.S. Department of the Treasury loan agreement), the NPV of the Baseline Scenario of the GM
Restructuring Plan is estimated in the range of approximately $5 billion to $14 billion.
Presently, there are additional restructuring initiatives in process inside and outside the U.S.
that when successfully concluded, are anticipated to have a further positive effect on the Baseline
Scenario NPV range. In the Upside Sensitivity Scenario, in which U.S. industry volumes return to
more historical trendline levels by 2014, the NPV analysis yields a range of $30 billion to $41
billion. Further elaboration of the Baseline Scenario and both Upside and Downside sensitivities
can be found in Appendix J.
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Federal Funding RequestWhile the accelerated restructuring efforts have, for the most part,
offset the massively negative effects of volume and revenue deterioration, Federal support beyond
that requested in December will be required to complete the Companys renewal. In the December 2
submission, the Company indicated that General Motors needs to retain the level of targeted global
cash balances (approximately $11-$14 billion) to support the normal conduct of business and under a
U.S. Downside volume
sensitivity, GM would need funding support of approximately $18 billion. In addition, it should be
noted that in its December 2 submission, the Company had assumed that the $4.5 billion U.S. secured
bank revolver credit facility would be renewed and fully drawn again in 2011.
In the current Baseline forecast, near-term U.S. industry volumes are similar to the December 2
Downside scenario and the Company has not assumed, based upon credit market conditions, that it
will be able to rollover and draw the full $4.5 billion secured bank revolver in 2011. On this
basis, GM is requesting Baseline federal funding support of $22.5 billion (i.e., the $18 billion
prior Downside funding request plus the $4.5 billion incremental required). If the new, even lower
Downside volume sensitivity scenario occurs, GM will require further federal funding, estimated
currently at an additional $7.5 billion, which could bring total Government support up to $30
billion by 2011.
Under the Companys Baseline outlook, repayment of Federal support is expected to begin in 2012 and
be fully repaid by 2017. Additional financial support might be required in 2013 and 2014 if U.S.
pension fund contributions are required (as is currently estimated) but, at this time it is
premature to plan for such additional funding support until alternatives to address pension funding
status are fully explored.
During the 2009-2014 timeframe, General Motors is also requesting funding support from certain
foreign governments. Notably, the Company is presently in discussions with the Governments of
Canada, Germany, United Kingdom, Sweden and Thailand, and has included an estimate of up to $6
billion in funding support to provide operating liquidity specifically for GMs operations overseas
and additional amounts beyond the $6 billion to mitigate legacy obligations.
The dramatic change in the Companys financial outlook over the past 6 months demonstrates the
industrys acute sensitivity to volume. As discussed previously, the Companys U.S. industry
assumptions are conservative compared to other forecasts, well below levels experienced for most of
this decade of approximately 17 million units, and below scrappage rates, estimated to be around
12.5 million units. If industry volumes recover more quickly, as a result of general economic
stimulus or industry-specific measures (such as sales tax holidays), U.S. Federal TARP funding
support could decline from $18 billion in mid-2009 to $13 billion in 2011, and be fully repaid by
2014.
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3. Key Restructuring Plan Changes: December 2 versus February 17
Significant changes have occurred since General Motors submitted its plan to Congress on December
2. As a result, GM has undertaken even more aggressive action impacting both the scope of the
restructuring efforts and the projected results.
3.1 External ChangesThe economic outlook has deteriorated considerably in the past 10
weeks. Whereas GMs December 2 Plan anticipated negative GDP growth (-1.0%) in the U.S. in 2009,
the Company is currently projecting a (-2.0%) decline in GDP for the same period. Global GDP is
now expected to also be negative in 2009 (-0.6%)the first such decline in the post-World War II
era. All regions have been revised downward with Western Europe, where General Motors has
extensive operations, expected to decline by approximately (-1.8%) in 2009. Compared to external
forecasts, General Motors GDP assumptions are more conservative.
In combination with rapidly rising unemployment in the United States, these deteriorating economic
conditions have had a chilling effect on consumer confidence and on automotive purchases in
particular. Compounding the challenge is that the credit markets for consumer credit are still
largely frozen, making it difficult for many consumers who have good credit ratings and who want to
buy a vehicle to do so.
Oil price forecasts have also been revised downward compared to those assumed in the December 2
Plan, reflecting the lower current price levels. While the Company retains its long-term price
view of $130 per barrel, and reflects this level from 2014 onward, somewhat lower interim oil and
gasoline prices are reflected in this Plan update, and account for minor changes in industry mix
during the 2009-2014 timeframe. General Motors oil price assumptions are in line with, or
somewhat higher than, external forecasts.
Finally, reflecting the change in GDP outlook noted above, the Companys outlook for industry sales
has been loweredsignificantly so in the 2009-2010 period. In December, General Motors projected
for U.S. and global industry sales in 2009 of 12 million units and nearly 64 million units,
respectively. The Baseline outlook for the U.S. has since been reduced to 10.5 million units,
while the global industry outlook has been reduced to 57.5 million units. The current global
industry baseline volumes are now below the Downside volumes presented in December for both 2009
and 2010. These industry volume forecasts are conservative compared to outside forecasts.
Details on the current and prior projections for GDP, oil prices, industry volumes and select other
economic indicators are presented in Appendix B.
3.2 Internal ChangesChanges to GMs restructuring Plan include revisions to market share
and GM unit volume assumptions, scope and/or timing of select U.S. restructuring elements, and new
restructuring initiatives under way at select foreign operations.
11
The Companys market share outlook has been updated to reflect both resource-driven product
portfolio changes and shifts in segment and country percent-of-total sales mix. For the Companys
U.S. operations, the revised Plan projects U.S. share of 22.0% in 2009, in line with 2008 actual,
and an increase of 0.5 points versus the December Plan. On a global basis, GMs projected market
share for 2009 declines slightly to 12.0%, down 0.4 points versus the December Plan.
As noted in the Executive Summary, the Company has reduced its industry outlook in all regions, and
now utilizes a Baseline industry volume for the U.S. which is similar, in the near-term, to the
Downside scenario contained in the December 2 submission. Table 1 below presents Baseline,
Downside and Upside scenarios utilized in this Restructuring Plan.
Table 1: U.S. Industry Volume Scenarios
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U.S. Industry Volumes (million units) |
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2009 |
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2010 |
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2011 |
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2012 |
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2013 |
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2014 |
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Downside |
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February 17 |
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9.5 |
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11.5 |
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12.8 |
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14.5 |
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14.9 |
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15.3 |
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December 2 |
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10.5 |
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11.5 |
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12.0 |
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12.8 |
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N/A |
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N/A |
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Baseline |
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|
|
|
|
|
|
February 17 |
|
|
10.5 |
|
|
|
12.5 |
|
|
|
14.3 |
|
|
|
16.0 |
|
|
|
16.4 |
|
|
|
16.8 |
|
December 2 |
|
|
12.0 |
|
|
|
13.5 |
|
|
|
14.5 |
|
|
|
15.0 |
|
|
|
N/A |
|
|
|
N/A |
|
|
Upside |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
February 17 |
|
|
12.0 |
|
|
|
14.3 |
|
|
|
15.8 |
|
|
|
17.5 |
|
|
|
17.9 |
|
|
|
18.3 |
|
December 2 |
|
|
12.0 |
|
|
|
14.0 |
|
|
|
15.5 |
|
|
|
16.2 |
|
|
|
N/A |
|
|
|
N/A |
|
|
GMs Baseline volume outlook is relatively conservative compared to other external forecasts, which
are included in Appendix B. Also, the Congressional Budget Offices most recent GDP forecast
contain outlooks for employment and housing starts that, when incorporated into GMs econometric
models, suggests similar industry volumes in 2009-2010 and higher volumes (on the order of 1.3 to
1.5 million units annually) in the 2011-2014 timeframe.
Combining current industry volume and GM share projections results in lower forecasted sales for GM
in the U.S. and globally. Projected 2009 GM U.S. volumes of 2.3 million units are down by 270,000
units, or 11%, compared to the December 2 submission, while projected GM global volumes of 6.9
million units are down 960,000 units. 2010 and 2011 Baseline volume projections also are below
those contained in the December 2 outlook, driving reductions in revenues and inventories.
Additional details on GMs sales projections are contained in Appendix C.
Related to the scope and/or timing of U.S. restructuring elements, further reductions in both
nameplates offered and manufacturing capacity are now reflected, due to the lower volumes noted
above. Specifically, 36 nameplates will be offered in 2012, 4 lower than indicated in the December
2 Plan and down 25% from 2008 levels. The number of U.S. manufacturing facilities has also been
further reduced, to 33 in 2012 compared to 38 envisioned in the December 2 submission. Related to
these and other actions, total U.S. employment is expected to decline from approximately 92,000
hourly and salaried
12
employees at year-end 2008 to 72,000 by 2012. Importantly, as noted earlier,
the current Plan assumes an acceleration of labor cost competitiveness (with foreign manufacturers
operations in the U.S.) from 2012 to 2009.
The Companys Restructuring Plan is broad based, with total global employment expected to be
reduced by over 47,000 employees over the course of the coming year, 26,000 of which will come from
outside the U.S. Regarding the Companys foreign operations, several initiatives are under way,
briefly summarized as follows:
|
* |
|
AustraliaContinued local production has become more challenging due to
changes in market preferences. GMs local subsidiary (Holden) and the
Australian government have developed a plan to bring to market a new, more
fuel-efficient vehicle, with project funding provided by the Australian
Government in the form of permanent grants. With this support, Holden is
projected to be a viable operation, making a positive NPV contribution. |
|
|
* |
|
CanadaThe Canadian market as well as GMs Canadian operations (GMCL) are
highly integrated into GMs overall North American strategy and operations.
Approximately 90% of GMCLs production in 2008 was exported outside of Canada,
primarily to the U.S. Approximately 88% of GMCLs domestic sales were imports
from the Companys U.S. operations. The recent unprecedented industry volume
downturn in North America, coupled with a gap in cost competitiveness related to
both active employees and retirees (versus U.S. transplants), have accelerated
the need to restructure the Companys Canadian operations in order to achieve
long-term viability. |
|
|
|
|
Discussions are well advanced with the Canadian Federal and Ontario
Governments (related to securing long-term financial assistance to execute the
necessary restructuring actions for long-term viability) and the Companys
Canadian Auto Workers (CAW) union (related to achieving competitive labor costs).
Progress is being made on both fronts. Specifically, on the issue of competitive
labor costs, the CAW has committed to achieving an hourly cost structure that is
consistent with what is ultimately negotiated with the UAW. |
|
|
|
|
Relative to the funding required to support GMCLs ongoing viability,
progress has also been made with the Canadian Federal and Ontario Governments
toward an agreement based on the principle of maintaining proportional levels of
manufacturing in Canada and GMCL receiving long-term financial assistance
proportional to the total support provided to GM by the U.S. Government. GMCL is
continuing its dialogue with both its Unions and the Canadian Government with a
target to finalize agreements on both funding support and competitive labor costs
in March 2009. |
13
|
|
|
GM remains optimistic that both agreements can be completed by that time, which
would support and sustain GMs long and rich history in Canada. The finalization
of such agreements would enable GMCL to achieve long-term viability and enhance
the value of General Motors. In the event agreements cannot be reached, GM will
be required to re-evaluate its future strategy for GMCL, as the subsidiary would
not be viable on a stand-alone basis. |
|
|
* |
|
Sweden/SaabThe Company has conducted a strategic review of its global Saab
business and has offered it for sale. Given the urgency of stemming sizeable
outflows associated with Saab operations, GM is requesting Swedish Government
support prior to any sale. The Company has developed a specific proposal that
would have the effect of capping GMs financial support, with Saabs operations
effectively becoming an independent business entity effective January 1, 2010.
While GM is hopeful that an agreement can be reached with the Swedish Government
to support this direction, the Saab Automobile AB subsidiary could file for
Reorganization as early as this month. |
|
|
* |
|
EuropeEurope is a highly competitive automotive market, and currently
unprofitable for many vehicle manufacturers, and has a relatively costly
restructuring environment. General Motors has engaged its European labor
partners to achieve $1.2 billion in cost reductions, which include several
possible closures/spinoffs of manufacturing facilities in high cost locations.
In addition, GM is restructuring its sales organization to become more brand
focused and better optimize its advertising spend. General Motors is also in
discussions with the German Government for operating and balance sheet support.
A sustainable strategy for GMs European operations may include partnerships with
the German Government and/or other European governments. The Company expects to
resolve solvency issues for its European operations prior to March 31, 2009. |
|
|
* |
|
Asia-PacificLower GDP and industry volume outlooks have prompted
reconsideration of the pace of the Companys capacity expansion plans in India,
which had been planned to be self-funded. In addition, two sizeable
manufacturing expansion projects in Thailandfor tooling and assembly of a new
mid-sized pickup model, and for a diesel engine facilityare no longer feasible
without support from the Government of Thailand and local banks, or other
partners, and are suspended indefinitely. |
Consistent with the requirements of the Federal loan, the Companys Plan will make its foreign
operations competitive and sustainable.
14
4. Restructuring Plan: Federal Requirements
In its December 2 submission to Congress, General Motors summarized its considerable progress over
the past few years related to product quality, productivity, and fuel efficiency, and in building a
full range of striking, award-winning cars, crossovers, and trucks. There is more to be done in
overcoming the gap between perception and reality around these accomplishments, but General Motors
remains focused on delivering the further improvements contained in this Plan. As noted in
December, General Motors is investing significantly in reinventing the automobile, with emphasis
being given to further improving safety, increasing fuel efficiency and reducing Americas
dependency on foreign oil, and reducing green house gas emissions.
4.1 Competitive Product Mix and Cost StructureGeneral Motors Restructuring Plan calls for
rationalizing vehicle sales and marketing operations in the United States through reducing brands,
nameplates and retail outlets. This will help to concentrate product development resources on
fewer, better entries, and generate more competitive dealer economics.
Brands and ChannelsThe Company has committed to focus its resources primarily on its core
brands: Chevrolet, Cadillac, Buick and GMC. Of the remaining brands, Pontiacwhich is part of
the Buick-Pontiac-GMC retail channelwill be a highly focused niche brand. Hummer and Saab,
stand-alone retail channels and brands, are subject to strategic reviews, including their
potential sale. A Hummer sale or phase out decision will be made in Q1 2009, with final resolution
expected for both no later than 2010. Saturn will remain in operation through the end of the
planned lifecycle for all Saturn products (2010-2011). In the interim, should Saturn retailers as
a group or other investors present a plan that would allow a spin off or sale of Saturn
Distribution Corporation (SDC), GM would be open to any such possibility. If a spin off or sale
does not occur, it is GMs intention to phase out the Saturn brand at the end of the current
product lifecycle.
Provisions have been made in the pro-forma financial statements for all brand-related restructuring
costs related to an assumed phase-out of the Saturn, Saab and Hummer retail channels and brands,
should a sale or spin-off prove unachievable. The impact of moving from six to three retail
channels, and eight to four core brands will not only result in structural costs savings in areas
such as marketing and human resources, but will enable GM to achieve greater focus on core brands
and channels. The Company believes the ongoing effect of fewer brands to be limited in terms of
unit sales, while improving profitability, as over 90% of the Companys U.S. aggregate contribution
margin (revenue less variable cost) is derived from core brands.
NameplatesGeneral Motors product plan calls for a 25% reduction in the number of vehicle
nameplates from todays levels by 2012. This reflects both the reduction in brands supported and
continued emphasis on fewer, better, and better supported entries. As shown in Table 2, nameplates
have declined from 63 in 2004 to 48 in 2008, and will be reduced further to 36 by 2012.
15
Table 2: GM North American Marketing Strategy U.S.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
GM North America Marketing Strategy - U.S. |
|
|
2000 |
|
2004 |
|
2008 |
|
2012 |
|
2014 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dec. 2nd |
|
Revised |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Plan |
|
Plan |
|
|
|
|
|
Brands |
|
|
9 |
|
|
|
8 |
|
|
|
8 |
|
|
|
5 |
|
|
|
5 |
|
|
|
5 |
|
|
Total Nameplates |
|
|
51 |
|
|
|
63 |
|
|
|
48 |
|
|
|
40 |
|
|
|
36 |
|
|
|
36 |
|
Car/Crossovers |
|
|
31 |
|
|
|
33 |
|
|
|
31 |
|
|
|
29 |
|
|
|
25 |
|
|
|
29 |
|
Trucks |
|
|
20 |
|
|
|
30 |
|
|
|
17 |
|
|
|
11 |
|
|
|
11 |
|
|
|
7 |
|
Car/Crossovers (%) |
|
|
61 |
% |
|
|
52 |
% |
|
|
65 |
% |
|
|
73 |
% |
|
|
69 |
% |
|
|
81 |
% |
|
New Vehicle Launches |
|
|
10 |
|
|
|
14 |
|
|
|
7 |
|
|
|
12 |
|
|
|
5 |
|
|
|
10 |
|
|
Consistent with the long-term outlook for higher oil prices, increasing fuel economy standards, and
the Companys objective of fuel economy leadership, the mix of General Motors nameplates will
continue to shift in favor of more fuel efficient car and crossover entries. Approximately 70% of
the Companys nameplates in 2012 will be cars or crossovers, increasing further to around 80% by
2014. Notably, all new vehicle launches in the United States during the 2009-2014 timeframe are
cars or crossovers, a sampling of which is presented in Appendix D. Also, as will be discussed in
Section 4.3, GM will bring to market many new fuel saving technologies during the Plan period,
importantly benefiting the Companys very successful truck line-up.
DealersHistorically, the scope and size of the dealer body has been a strength of General
Motors due to excellent customer access and convenience. As the industry has grown, so too has the
competition. Due to the Companys long operating history and legacy locations, many GM dealerships
now operate from outdated facilities that are also no longer in the prime locations required to
succeed. As a result, the traditional strength of GMs broad dealer network in major markets has
become a disadvantage for both the dealerships and the Company. GM has long recognized this issue
and, since 1970, has reduced the U.S. dealer body by over 6,000 dealerships. Key drivers have been
natural attrition, consolidation of franchises in smaller markets and, more recently, actions to
phase out 2,800 U.S. Oldsmobile franchises and realign Buick, Pontiac and GMC into a single
channel. Oldsmobile has been successfully concluded, and over 80% of Buick-Pontiac-GMC sales now
come from aligned dealerships. With the exception of Oldsmobile, most dealer consolidation has
utilized private capital rather than relying solely on GM funds.
To continue to address this issue, GM will accelerate the right-sizing and re-shaping of its dealer
network in major markets, increasing volume throughput in better locations. Fewer, better located
dealerships increase dealer profits, allowing for recruitment and retention of the best retail
talent and more effective local marketing initiatives.
Improving the profitability of GMs independent dealers helps the Company by increasing sales,
attracting private investment, and driving greater customer loyalty. In the major markets GM will
continue to benchmark key locations, facilities, and throughput versus target competitors. The
Companys objective is to have the right number of dealers in the right locations operated by the
right entrepreneurs.
16
In small town markets, GM intends to preserve its historic and competitive strength. Right-sizing
will evolve primarily from normal attrition and from dealer initiated consolidations which are a
minimal cost to GM.
As noted in Table 3, from 2004 to 2008, GM dealerships declined by 15% (from 7,367 to 6,246). Over
the next four years, GM dealerships will be reduced at an accelerated rate, declining by a further
25% (from 6,246 to 4,700). Most of this reduction will take place in metro and suburban markets
where dealership overcapacity is most prevalent. While current economic conditions have resulted
in dealer attrition well above normal levels, the Companys Plan includes actions and investments
necessary to achieve indicated targets.
Table 3: Dealerships by Brand, Market Type and Throughput
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dealerships |
|
|
2004 |
|
2006 |
|
2008 |
|
2009 |
|
2010 |
|
2011 |
|
2012 |
|
2013 |
|
2014 |
|
Total GM Dealerships |
|
|
7,367 |
|
|
|
6,907 |
|
|
|
6,246 |
|
|
|
5,750 |
|
|
|
5,300 |
|
|
|
5,000 |
|
|
|
4,700 |
|
|
|
4,400 |
|
|
|
4,100 |
|
|
Major Market |
|
|
4,062 |
|
|
|
3,884 |
|
|
|
3,513 |
|
|
|
3,100 |
|
|
|
2,800 |
|
|
|
2,600 |
|
|
|
2,400 |
|
|
|
2,200 |
|
|
|
1,925 |
|
Metro |
|
|
2,339 |
|
|
|
2,330 |
|
|
|
2,036 |
|
|
|
1,890 |
|
|
|
1,640 |
|
|
|
1,570 |
|
|
|
1,400 |
|
|
|
1,250 |
|
|
|
1,100 |
|
Hubtown |
|
|
1,723 |
|
|
|
1,554 |
|
|
|
1,477 |
|
|
|
1,210 |
|
|
|
1,160 |
|
|
|
1,030 |
|
|
|
1,000 |
|
|
|
950 |
|
|
|
825 |
|
|
Rural Market |
|
|
3,305 |
|
|
|
3,033 |
|
|
|
2,733 |
|
|
|
2,650 |
|
|
|
2,500 |
|
|
|
2,400 |
|
|
|
2,300 |
|
|
|
2,200 |
|
|
|
2,175 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dealerships By Brand, Market Type and Throughput |
|
|
2004 |
|
2006 |
|
2008 |
|
2009 |
|
2010 |
|
2011 |
|
2012 |
|
2013 |
|
2014 |
Metro Markets |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Chevrolet |
|
|
782 |
|
|
|
802 |
|
|
|
720 |
|
|
|
715 |
|
|
|
710 |
|
|
|
705 |
|
|
|
700 |
|
|
|
630 |
|
|
|
575 |
|
Throughput |
|
|
1,071 |
|
|
|
918 |
|
|
|
666 |
|
|
|
597 |
|
|
|
713 |
|
|
|
844 |
|
|
|
975 |
|
|
|
1,186 |
|
|
|
1,365 |
|
|
Buick-Pontiac-GMC |
|
|
241 |
|
|
|
336 |
|
|
|
332 |
|
|
|
415 |
|
|
|
395 |
|
|
|
370 |
|
|
|
350 |
|
|
|
310 |
|
|
|
285 |
|
Throughput |
|
|
737 |
|
|
|
624 |
|
|
|
381 |
|
|
|
319 |
|
|
|
443 |
|
|
|
545 |
|
|
|
667 |
|
|
|
759 |
|
|
|
795 |
|
|
Cadillac |
|
|
134 |
|
|
|
135 |
|
|
|
120 |
|
|
|
118 |
|
|
|
120 |
|
|
|
120 |
|
|
|
120 |
|
|
|
110 |
|
|
|
100 |
|
Throughput |
|
|
469 |
|
|
|
453 |
|
|
|
355 |
|
|
|
348 |
|
|
|
474 |
|
|
|
535 |
|
|
|
664 |
|
|
|
923 |
|
|
|
1,310 |
|
|
Multi & Saturn, Saab, Hummer |
|
|
1,182 |
|
|
|
1,057 |
|
|
|
864 |
|
|
|
642 |
|
|
|
415 |
|
|
|
375 |
|
|
|
230 |
|
|
|
200 |
|
|
|
140 |
|
Throughput |
|
|
549 |
|
|
|
562 |
|
|
|
587 |
|
|
|
408 |
|
|
|
613 |
|
|
|
536 |
|
|
|
731 |
|
|
|
721 |
|
|
|
833 |
|
|
Hubtowns |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
GM Multi-Line (partial) |
|
|
1,723 |
|
|
|
1,544 |
|
|
|
1,477 |
|
|
|
1,210 |
|
|
|
1,160 |
|
|
|
1,030 |
|
|
|
1,000 |
|
|
|
950 |
|
|
|
825 |
|
Throughput |
|
|
421 |
|
|
|
388 |
|
|
|
320 |
|
|
|
293 |
|
|
|
363 |
|
|
|
460 |
|
|
|
529 |
|
|
|
585 |
|
|
|
685 |
|
|
Rural |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
GM Multi-Line (partial) |
|
|
3,305 |
|
|
|
3,033 |
|
|
|
2,733 |
|
|
|
2,650 |
|
|
|
2,500 |
|
|
|
2,400 |
|
|
|
2,300 |
|
|
|
2,200 |
|
|
|
2,175 |
|
Throughput (Blended) |
|
|
275 |
|
|
|
239 |
|
|
|
196 |
|
|
|
152 |
|
|
|
191 |
|
|
|
224 |
|
|
|
261 |
|
|
|
287 |
|
|
|
295 |
|
|
Retail outlets are independently owned and capitalized. As such, this effort is based on individual
negotiations on a market by market basis. The Company is accelerating its existing trend to
consolidate and relocate dealerships, in many cases leveraging private capital. Dealers who
relocate or who replace other dealers with their private capital expect an opportunity for adequate
return on their investment. Exiting dealers generally expect GMs assistance with respect to their
facilities and other dealership investments, such as new vehicles, parts, tools, and third-party
long term contracts.
Additional information on GMs U.S. brand and network plans are contained in Appendix E.
Cost CompetitivenessThe focus on fewer, better brands, nameplates and retail outlets
will increase the Companys overall effectivenessenhancing revenue, and
17
providing further gains
in product quality due to simplification in engineering and manufacturing operations. Such
simplification contributes to GMs overall cost competitiveness over time, as have the Companys
initiatives related to product development, manufacturing and labor cost, described in the
following sections.
Product DevelopmentIn 2005, General Motors completed a long-term initiative to
transform the Companys operations from a collection of semi-autonomous regions into a cohesive
global enterprise. This change is enabling GM to reap enormous benefits from its significant
global scale. Whereas, historically, each of the Companys four regions managed their own product
development (PD) activities, GM now manages all product development activities globally. Working in
concert with global purchasing and global manufacturing operations, the new PD organization has
developed a succession of high-volume global vehicle architectures.
Vehicles and powertrains are now planned, designed, engineered and sourced once for all markets.
The benefit of this approach is that it maximizes economies of scale, leverages the best and most
experienced engineering talent for a given class of vehicle, and lowers PD costs for all regions.
Each architecture is configured to meet the needs of all vehicles to be built from it, including
specific regional variants. GMs global architectures are flexible to meet changing market
conditions and allow for different sizes and classes of vehicles to share assembly tooling and be
built in the same facility. Only four automobile companies appear to operate currently in this
fashion, GM, Toyota, Honda and Volkswagen. Through the analysis related to a succession of
potential cooperative ventures over the past 3 years, GM has confirmed that the Companys
capabilities and economies of scale achieved from managing product development globally appear to
significantly exceed those of most competitors.
By 2012, over 50% of GMs U.S. passenger car sales will be derived from new, global architectures,
and this increases to nearly 90% by 2014. The benefits to GMs U.S. operations include material
cost savings, lower engineering and capital investment, and better and faster executionall of
which enable greater returns on investment.
Manufacturing Productivity General Motors is a leader in North American
manufacturing productivity. According to The Harbour Report North America, the industrys
competitive assessment study, General Motors has overtaken Toyota in North American vehicle
assembly productivity.
Table 4: North America Productivity The Harbour Report
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
North American Productivity - The Harbour Report |
|
|
Hours Per Vehicle |
|
Segment Winners |
|
|
2000 |
|
2008* |
|
2000 |
|
2008* |
|
GM |
|
|
26.75 |
|
|
|
22.19 |
|
|
|
4 |
|
|
|
11 |
|
Toyota |
|
|
21.60 |
|
|
|
22.35 |
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
* |
|
Reflects 2007 performance; 2008 performance data will be
available Q2 2009 |
As indicated in Table 4, in 2000, General Motors productivity was clearly behind Toyotas North
American assembly productivity levels. Considerable improvements in
18
the Companys processes have
been made since then, resulting in the Company now having eleven vehicle segment winners and three
of the top ten assembly plants compared with none on both counts for Toyota. GM has also
demonstrated improvements in stamping and powertrain operations, having five of the top ten most
efficient engine plants and the overall leading automatic transmission plant.
Labor CostThe lower hours per vehicle noted above, combined with negotiated changes to
the Companys labor agreements in 2005 and 2007, have reduced total labor cost per vehicle by 26%
from 2004 to 2008. Despite this improvement, GM still had a competitive disadvantage. Legacy
costs figure prominently in the competitive gap, due in part to the far greater number of retirees
GM supports with pension and health care benefits. GM spent over $100 billion on retiree benefits
over the past 15 years, while the foreign competitors transplant operations have not had
commensurate obligations or commitments. Other competitive gap factors include the higher mix of
indirect and skilled trade employees and the lower percentage of GM workers earning lower, Tier II
wages compared to competition.
In this regard, in the Companys December 2 submission, a commitment was made to resolve the
competitive labor cost gap by 2012. The loan documents require GM to make progress sooner,
specifically requiring General Motors and its Unions to make best efforts to reach agreement in
principle to closing the gap to competition by the end of 2009.
Since execution of the loan agreement, the UAW and GMs management have been in intense discussions
relative to competitive improvements. Agreements concerning two items have been completed and are
now being implemented. First, a special attrition program has been negotiated to assist
restructuring efforts by reducing excess employment costs through voluntary incentivized attrition
of the current hourly workforce. Second, the UAW and GMs management have also agreed to suspend
the JOBS program, which provided full income and benefit protection in lieu of layoff for an indefinite
period of time.
In addition to the above, GMs management and the UAW have reached a tentative agreement regarding
modification to the GM/UAW labor agreement. This tentative agreement is subject to ratification by
the UAW membership. The terms of the tentative agreement are not being disclosed pending such
ratification.
These competitive improvements will further substantially reduce GMs labor costs and represent a
major move to close the competitive gap with U.S. transplant competitors. In addition, GM and the
UAW have agreed to improve competitive work rules, which will also significantly reduce labor
costs.
While these changes materially improve GMs competitiveness and help the Company realize a
substantial portion of the labor cost savings targeted in the financial projections, further
progress will be required to achieve the full targeted savings. GM plans to report
19
these changes to the U.S. Secretary of Labor who must certify GMs competitiveness relative to the
U.S. transplants.
4.2 Compliance with Federal Fuel Economy and Emissions Regulations |
4.2 Compliance with Federal Fuel Economy and Emissions RegulationsGeneral Motors is among
the industry leaders in fuel efficiency, and committed to a wide variety of technologies to reduce
petroleum consumption. Given the Companys long history as a full-line manufacturer, producing a
wide variety of cars, trucks, and SUVs, the Companys contributions to significantly improving fuel
economy are frequently not well understood. As indicated in Table 5, for the 2008 calendar year,
the Company offers 20 models obtaining 30 miles per gallons or more in highway driving, more
than any other manufacturer. Included in this number is Chevrolets all new Malibu which
achieves better fuel economy than Toyota Camry.
Table 5: GM Fuel Efficient Models (Calendar Year)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
GM Fuel Efficient Models |
|
|
2000 |
|
2004 |
|
2008 |
|
2012 |
|
2014 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dec. 2nd Plan |
|
Revised Plan |
|
|
Models > 30 MPG (Highway) |
|
|
8 |
|
|
|
8 |
|
|
|
20 |
|
|
|
24 |
|
|
|
23 |
|
|
|
33 |
|
Alternative Fuel Models (% of Sales) |
|
|
2 |
% |
|
|
6 |
% |
|
|
17 |
% |
|
|
55 |
% |
|
|
61 |
% |
|
|
65 |
% |
Hybrid and Plug-In Models |
|
|
0 |
|
|
|
2 |
|
|
|
6 |
|
|
|
15 |
|
|
|
14 |
|
|
|
26 |
|
General Motors has also been at the forefront in the development of alternative fuel vehicles,
leveraging experience and capability developed around these technologies in the Companys
operations in Brazil. Alternative fuels offer the greatest near-term potential to reduce petroleum
consumption in the transportation sector, especially as cellulosic sources of ethanol become more
readily and affordably available in the United States. An increasing percentage of the General
Motors sales will be alternative fuel capable offerings, increasing from 17% in 2008 to
approximately 65% in 2014.
General Motors is also investing significantly in hybrid and plug-in vehicles, for both cars and
trucks, and offers 9 hybrid models in 2009 (more than any other manufacturer), a number
which will increase to 14 models in 2012 and 26 models in 2014. The Chevrolet Volt is included in
this count, as are two additional models sharing the Volts extended range electric vehicle (EREV)
technology. With a majority of Americans driving their vehicles less than 40 miles per day, the
Chevrolet Voltproviding up to 40 miles on a single electrical chargeshould be attractive to
those seeking to use little if any gasoline. The development costs of high-technology vehicles
like the Volt are significant, but so are the long-term benefits that come from increased energy
efficiency and independence. Working together, the industry and the Federal Government can and
should explore ways and means of accelerating the adoption of such fuel-saving technologies.
Specifically related to fuel economy, the Company has complied with Federal fuel economy rules
since their inception in 1978, and is fully committed to meeting the requirements in the 2007
Energy Independence and Security Act (which specifies the
20
2020 fuel economy requirement). Going
forward, the Company will work closely with the Administration on future requirements, and work to
meet them in the most cost effective way. Compliance with other regulatory schemes, including the
California CO2 program, will be addressed as any such programs are finalized. General
Motors will work with the Administration, and others, to develop any changes needed to the
Companys product and financial plans to meet such additional requirements.
As shown in Table 6, in the 2010-2015 model years, General Motors anticipates steadily improving
fuel economy for both its car and truck fleets (the only exception being the 2011 truck fleet,
where, in part, a regulation change related to large SUVs and vans reduces the Companys truck
fleet average from the prior year). These fuel economy values include full usage of all credit
flexibilities under the U.S. Corporate Average Fuel Economy program.
Table 6: GM Fleet Average Fuel Economy (Model Year)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
GM Fleet Average Fuel Economy (MPG) |
|
|
2010 |
|
2011 |
|
2012 |
|
2013 |
|
2014 |
|
2015 |
Car |
|
|
31.0 |
|
|
|
32.5 |
|
|
|
33.7 |
|
|
|
36.8 |
|
|
|
38.6 |
|
|
|
38.6 |
|
Truck |
|
|
24.0 |
|
|
|
23.6 |
|
|
|
23.8 |
|
|
|
25.4 |
|
|
|
26.8 |
|
|
|
27.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Car values include both domestic and import car fleets; all values include full usage of all
credit flexibilities under the CAFÉ program. |
General Motors is committed to meeting or exceeding all Federal fuel economy standards in the
2010-2015 model years. The Company will achieve this through a combination of strategies,
including: extensive technology improvements to conventional powertrains, and increased use of
smaller displacement engines and 6-speed automatic transmissions; vehicle improvements, including
increased use of lighter, front-wheel drive architectures; increased hybrid offerings, and the
launch of General Motors first extended-range electric vehicle, the Chevrolet Volt in late 2010;
portfolio changes, including the increasing car/crossover mix referred to previously, and dropping
select larger vehicles in favor of smaller, more fuel-efficient offerings.
Oil prices figure prominently in the attainment of these projected fleet average fuel economy
results because they heavily influence consumer purchase decisions, as was evident in the second
half of 2008 when oil prices soared to approximately $150/barrel. As the global economy faltered,
and oil prices collapsed, consumer preferences shifted again, with truck purchases taking an
increasing percentage of total sales.
4.3 Domestic Manufacturer of Advanced Technology Vehicles |
4.3 Domestic Manufacturer of Advanced Technology VehiclesAs noted in the Companys
December 2 submission, General Motors fully understands and appreciates the challenges to energy
security and the climate from increased global consumption of
petroleum. GM believes that as a business necessity it must do everything it can to help reduce
the nations petroleum dependency and greenhouse gas emissions, with an emphasis on fuel
efficiency, bio-fuels and vehicle electrification.
In the December 2 submission, the Company highlighted that it would invest heavily in alternative
fuel and advanced propulsion technologies during the 2009-2012 timeframe. This investment is
substantially to support the expansion in hybrid offerings, and for the
21
Volts EREV technology.
The Company is developing these and other technologies, shown in Chart 3, consistent with its
objective of being the recognized industry leader in fuel efficiency.
Chart 3: GM Technology and Fuel Economy Leadership
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Current |
|
Medium Term |
|
Long Term |
Underway |
|
Starting in 2012 CY |
|
Starting in 2015 CY |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Cylinder deactivation
|
|
|
|
Gen 2 strong hybrids
|
|
|
|
Fuel cell |
|
|
Direct injection
Turbo-charging with engine downsizing
6-speed transmission
|
|
|
|
Dry dual clutch transmission
New 4 cylinder gas engines
Potential compressed natural gas applications
|
|
|
|
Lean combustion / homogeneous charge compression ignition gas engines
Gen 3 hybrid systems |
|
|
E85 roll-out
Gen 2 Belt-Alternator-Starter hybrids
Gen 1 strong hybrids
Extended Range Electric Vehicles (Volt)
|
|
|
|
Additional Extended Range Electric Vehicles
2-step variable valve lift |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Variable valve timing |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bold represents Powertrain initiatives which favorably impact truck fuel economy |
One item of particular note is the Companys announcement on January 12, 2009 to construct a new
manufacturing facility in the United States to build Lithium-Ion battery packs for the Chevrolet
Volt. Lithium Ion batteries are an essential technology for electric vehicles to be viable and,
more generally, an important energy storage capability for this country in the long run. Despite
restructuring efforts that will reduce overall salaried employment levels in the United States,
General Motors is increasing its investment in electric vehicle/Lithium-Ion battery development,
with over 1,000 engineers and technicians directly involved with this program.
The Company has already submitted two Section 136 applications to the Department of Energy in
support of various advanced technology vehicle programs contained in General Motors product
portfolio, which include some of the alternative fuel and advanced propulsion investment described
above. These two requests combined total $8.4 billion, and a third application is planned for
submission by March 31, 2009.
The investments contained in this restructuring plan will allow GM to become a long-term global
leader in the development of fuel efficient and advanced technology vehicles. In so doing, the
Company will contribute to the development of this countrys advanced manufacturing capabilities in
line with the important, long-term emphasis on developing green economic growth.
4.4 Rationalization of Costs, Capitalization and Capacity |
4.4 Rationalization of Costs, Capitalization and CapacityGeneral Motors has been engaged
in significant restructuring of its core North American business for the past few years, including
significant plant closings, workforce reductions, and renegotiation of labor contracts with its
unions. This Restructuring Plan contains accelerated labor cost parity with foreign manufacturers
operations in the United States, as discussed earlier in this report. The loan documents also
require documentation of salaried cost competitiveness, the restructuring of the Companys VEBA
obligations, and a conversion
22
of two-thirds of the unsecured public debt to equity by year-end
2009. This section addresses those requirements, and provides an update on the scope of GMs North
American manufacturing operations, structural cost outlook and breakeven point.
Salaried CompetitivenessOver the past several years, GM has significantly reduced the
compensation cost of salaried employment in the U.S. Merit increases have been paid in only two of
the past five years, and variable pay (well below target) has only been paid in three of the past
five years. Additionally, there have been reductions in the level of benefits over the same time
period.
The Company has completed an analysis of salaried employee compensation in comparison with the
domestic operations of Honda, Nissan and Toyota. This analysis, performed by Watson Wyatt,
confirms that GM employees are paid at competitive rates, with salaries being slightly above the
3-competitor average (0.2%) but total cash compensation trailing by approximately 6%. Benefit
comparisons with the three transplant competitors are not available. GMs internal analysis shows
the Company does not exceed competitive benchmarks.
Between 2000 and 2008, GM has reduced the number salaried employees in the U.S. by 40%. This
Restructuring Plan includes a further reduction in GM salaried employees, globally, by
approximately 10,000 (14%) compared to year-end 2008 levels. Most of this reduction is expected to
occur in 2009, and will result in annualized savings of $1 billion. Historical and projected U.S.
employment data is presented in presented in Table 7. More details are provided in Appendix F.
Table 7: GM U.S. Employment
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
GM U.S. Employment |
|
|
2000 |
|
2004 |
|
2008 |
|
2012 |
|
2014 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dec. 2nd Plan |
|
Revised Plan |
|
|
Hourly |
|
|
146,026 |
* |
|
|
118,787 |
* |
|
|
62,403 |
* |
|
|
|
|
|
|
46,300 |
|
|
|
46,400 |
|
Salaried |
|
|
49,348 |
|
|
|
41,464 |
|
|
|
29,650 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
26,250 |
|
|
|
26,250 |
|
Total |
|
|
195,374 |
|
|
|
160,251 |
|
|
|
92,053 |
|
|
|
65,000-75,000 |
|
|
|
72,550 |
|
|
|
72,650 |
|
|
|
|
* |
|
These figures include headcounts for 2000-2008 for GMs
subsidiary operations which were subsequently sold and not included
in the December 2 submission figures. |
Manufacturing OperationsGeneral Motors has significantly reduced and consolidated
manufacturing facilities in the past 8 years. Reflecting further productivity and manufacturing
flexibility improvements, GM will achieve further reductions over the next 4 years. As indicated
in Table 8, the Company reduced the total number of powertrain, stamping and assembly plants by 12
in the U.S. (from 59 in 2000 to 47 at 2008 year-end), and has plans to idle an additional 14
facilities by 2012.
23
Table 8: GM U.S. Manufacturing Operations
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
GM U.S. Manufacturing Operations |
|
|
2000 |
|
2004 |
|
2008 |
|
2012 |
|
2014 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dec. 2nd Plan |
|
Revised Plan |
|
|
Powertrain, Stamping and
Assembly Plants |
|
|
59 |
|
|
|
64 |
|
|
|
47 |
|
|
|
38 |
|
|
|
33 |
|
|
|
32 |
|
Flexible Plants (Assembly) |
|
|
22 |
% |
|
|
26 |
% |
|
|
60 |
% |
|
|
77 |
% |
|
|
83 |
% |
|
|
82 |
% |
In addition to these consolidations, General Motors has been implementing an integrated Global
Manufacturing Strategy, based on common lean manufacturing principles and processes.
Implementation of this Strategy provides the infrastructure for flexible production in its assembly
facilities where multiple body styles from different architectures can be built in a given plant.
Also, GMs flexible powertrain facilities are capable of building multiple unique engine variants
and transmission variants on the same machining and assembly line. As indicated in Table 8,
assembly flexibility has tripled from 22% in 2000 to 60% in 2008, with a further increase to 82%
planned by 2014. Flexible manufacturing enables the Company to respond to changing market
conditions more quickly and contributes to higher overall capacity utilization and lower and more
efficient capital investment. These benefits are built into the pro-forma financial projections
contained in this Plan.
Manufacturing consolidation initiatives, along with other, enterprise-wide cost reduction
activities have produced significant reductions in the Companys structural costs. As shown in
Chart 4, the Companys North American structural costs have been reduced from nearly $36 billion in
2006 to approximately $30 billion in 2008.
Chart 4: GM North America Structural Cost Outlook
|
|
|
* |
|
2008 data is preliminary |
|
|
|
Note: 2006 and 2007 data vary from numbers reported in the December
2 submission due to changes in GAAP classification of certain
revenue and other income items previously reflected as structural
cost offsets in-line with prior management reporting |
24
By 2011, reflecting the positive impact of the initiatives and plans previously discussed (e.g.,
facilities, brand and nameplate reductions, headcount reductions, competitive work rules), GMs
structural costs will decline by another $6 billion and remain at that level through 2014 despite
an approximate 30% increase in factory unit sales over the 2010 calendar year level. At these more
normal levels of production and sales, the Companys structural costexpressed as a percentage of
revenuewill fall to approximately 24%, considerably lower than the roughly 30% level experienced
in 2006 and 2007.
Breakeven VolumeIn the December 2nd submission, General Motors Plan targeted breakeven
operations (at the adjusted EBIT level) with U.S. industry volumes in the range of 12.5-13.0
million units, well below the 17+ million levels experienced for most of this decade, and below
projected future volumes as well. With the further facility consolidations and other cost
reductions incorporated in this revised Plan, the Company projects it will now lower its breakeven
point to the equivalent of a U.S. industry SAAR (seasonal adjusted annual rate) of around 11.5-12.0
million units.
CapitalizationOn January 28, a draft term sheet for the conversion of both a substantial
portion of the Companys VEBA obligations (50% or more) and current unsecured public debt
(two-thirds or more) to equity was presented to the UAW and their advisors, and to the advisors to
the unofficial committee of bondholders, followed by a revised term sheet on February 12. Pursuant
to these terms, unsecured public debt on the Companys current balance sheet would be converted to
a combination of new debt and equity, for a net debt reduction of at least $18 billion. In
addition, the current VEBA and retiree Paygo healthcare obligations having a present value of $20
billion would be converted into a new VEBA contribution schedule covering one-half of the current
obligations, with the other half to be met with an equity ownership in GM by the VEBA trust. Under
the term sheet proposal, a substantial majority of the pro-forma equity in General Motors would be
distributed to exchanging bondholders and the UAW VEBA.
At this moment, negotiations are progressing with the advisors to the unofficial committee of
unsecured bondholders and due diligence regarding GMs financial conditions has commenced. A
letter of understanding summarizing the progress to date on these discussions specific to the most
recent term sheet is attached in Appendix G. Reflecting necessary filings with the SEC, and
related review time, the bond exchange offer is now scheduled to commence in late March, consistent
with required timeline. Closingon both VEBA obligations and bond exchangewould follow judicial
and regulatory reviews of the VEBA transaction, which should be complete in May of this year.
Discussions with representatives of the UAW VEBA have also been progressing, and due diligence is
also proceeding. Similar to the unsecured bondholders, a letter of understanding summarizing
progress to date related the VEBA discussions is also attached in Appendix G.
25
5. Restructuring Plan: Financial Viability and Federal Loan Repayment
The Companys current pro-forma financial outlook builds on the Restructuring Plan presented to
Congress on December 2, incorporating updated economic and industry outlooks discussed earlier,
performance requirements included in the loan documents, and new restructuring initiatives
undertaken by General Motors both in the United States and in select foreign operations. The
deterioration in both U.S. and global economic conditions stands out as the largest negative
development since the prior Plan submission to Congress, significantly lowering near-term volumes
and revenues, and significantly reducing asset values in the Companys pension plans.
The accelerated and additional restructurings undertaken by General Motors partially offset these
effects. Nonetheless, liquidity in the 2009-2014 Plan windowwhile steadily improvingis
adversely impacted by industry volumes mirroring the Companys Downside scenario contained in the
December 2 submission, requiring increased Federal support beyond that requested at that time. The
specifics of the current outlook prompting GMs request for additional Federal support are
presented later in this section. Appendix H outlines select Restructuring Plans milestones.
As noted, volume remains the most significant variable in the Companys Plan, with the GDP and
industry volume assumptions employed being quite conservative relative to outside forecasts,
including those of the Federal Government. Any material improvement in the U.S. and global
economies in 2009 and 2010, owing to a bottoming out of mortgage foreclosures, more normal credit
flows (especially important to the automobile business) or Government stimulus programs, will have
a significant beneficial impact on the Companys financial projections presented herein and, in
turn, on the ultimate level and duration of Federal support ultimately needed.
5.1 GMNA Financial Outlook |
5.1 GMNA Financial OutlookTable 9 presents a summary of key metrics for General Motors
North American operations for the period 2009-2014. Reflecting a strong product plan, and the
restructuring initiatives described earlier in this report, the Company will achieve breakeven at
the adjusted EBIT level in 2010 despite still depressed economic conditions. As industry volumes
improve (although still below levels experienced earlier this decade), adjusted EBIT levels
increase significantlyto over $3 billion in 2011, and to the $6.0-$7.6 billion level in the
2012-14 timeframe.
26
Table 9: GM North America Key Metrics
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Actual |
|
Restructuring Plan |
($ billions) |
|
2006 |
|
2007 |
|
2008 |
|
2009 |
|
2010 |
|
2011 |
|
2012 |
|
2013 |
|
2014 |
Industry Volume (mil. units) |
|
|
20.2 |
|
|
|
19.6 |
|
|
|
16.6 |
|
|
|
13.0 |
|
|
|
15.2 |
|
|
|
17.1 |
|
|
|
18.9 |
|
|
|
19.4 |
|
|
|
19.8 |
|
Memo: U.S. Industry |
|
|
17.1 |
|
|
|
16.5 |
|
|
|
13.5 |
|
|
|
10.5 |
|
|
|
12.5 |
|
|
|
14.3 |
|
|
|
16.0 |
|
|
|
16.4 |
|
|
|
16.8 |
|
GMNA Market Share |
|
|
23.8 |
% |
|
|
23.0 |
% |
|
|
21.5 |
% |
|
|
21.1 |
% |
|
|
20.4 |
% |
|
|
19.5 |
% |
|
|
19.4 |
% |
|
|
19.3 |
% |
|
|
19.1 |
% |
GM Factory Unit Sales (000s) |
|
|
4,928 |
|
|
|
4,487 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2,615 |
|
|
|
3,187 |
|
|
|
3,521 |
|
|
|
3,933 |
|
|
|
4,023 |
|
|
|
4,097 |
|
Net Sales |
|
|
116.7 |
|
|
|
112.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
67.6 |
|
|
|
81.3 |
|
|
|
87.9 |
|
|
|
97.0 |
|
|
|
100.1 |
|
|
|
102.9 |
|
Aggregate Contribution Margin |
|
|
35.4 |
|
|
|
34.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
20.8 |
|
|
|
24.9 |
|
|
|
26.8 |
|
|
|
29.7 |
|
|
|
30.9 |
|
|
|
31.2 |
|
ACM as % of Net Sales |
|
|
30.4 |
% |
|
|
30.4 |
% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
30.8 |
% |
|
|
30.7 |
% |
|
|
30.5 |
% |
|
|
30.6 |
% |
|
|
30.9 |
% |
|
|
30.3 |
% |
Structural Cost |
|
|
35.6 |
|
|
|
33.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
26.3 |
|
|
|
25.0 |
|
|
|
24.0 |
|
|
|
24.0 |
|
|
|
24.0 |
|
|
|
24.0 |
|
SC as a % of Net Sales |
|
|
30.5 |
% |
|
|
30.0 |
% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
39.0 |
% |
|
|
30.8 |
% |
|
|
27.4 |
% |
|
|
24.8 |
% |
|
|
24.0 |
% |
|
|
23.3 |
% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Adjusted Earnings Before Interest and Taxes (EBIT) |
|
|
0.3 |
|
|
|
0.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
(5.2 |
) |
|
|
0.3 |
|
|
|
3.2 |
|
|
|
6.0 |
|
|
|
7.3 |
|
|
|
7.6 |
|
Adjusted Earnings Before Taxes (EBT) |
|
|
(1.6 |
) |
|
|
(1.5 |
) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
(7.8 |
) |
|
|
(2.6 |
) |
|
|
0.4 |
|
|
|
3.3 |
|
|
|
5.2 |
|
|
|
5.7 |
|
Adjusted Operating Cash Flows (OCF) |
|
|
(3.2 |
) |
|
|
(2.1 |
) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
(8.2 |
) |
|
|
1.0 |
|
|
|
2.1 |
|
|
|
6.0 |
|
|
|
7.0 |
|
|
|
7.3 |
|
|
|
|
* |
|
2008 year-end financial data has not been released yet |
In 2009, reflecting total U.S. industry volume (including medium and heavy duty trucks and buses)
below a 10 million unit SAAR, 1st Quarter adjusted operating cash flow (OCF) is expected
to be ($10.8) billion, with all subsequent quarters generating positive adjusted cash flow. The
1st Quarter adjusted OCF result is directly related to a softer overall industry outlook
and the Companys dramatic reduction in production (and hence dealer inventories) in the
1st Quarter. Adjusted OCF turns positive in 2010, increasing steadily over ensuing
years owing to improved industry sales and the full effect of restructuring activities, reaching $7
billion in 2013-2014.
Table 10: General Motors North America Adjusted Operating Cash Flow
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
General Motors North America |
|
|
2009 |
|
2010 |
|
2011 |
|
2012 |
N.A. Industry (million units) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Current Outlook |
|
|
13.0 |
|
|
|
15.2 |
|
|
|
17.1 |
|
|
|
18.9 |
|
O/(U) December 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Baseline |
|
|
(1.8 |
) |
|
|
(1.2 |
) |
|
|
(0.4 |
) |
|
|
0.8 |
|
Downside |
|
|
(0.3 |
) |
|
|
0.8 |
|
|
|
2.1 |
|
|
|
3.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Adjusted OCF ($ billions) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Current Outlook |
|
|
(8.2 |
) |
|
|
1.0 |
|
|
|
2.1 |
|
|
|
6.0 |
|
O/(U) December 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Baseline |
|
|
(4.6 |
) |
|
|
(1.9 |
) |
|
|
(2.5 |
) |
|
|
(1.3 |
) |
Downside |
|
|
(1.7 |
) |
|
|
1.3 |
|
|
|
1.1 |
|
|
|
1.8 |
|
Table 10 compares currently projected adjusted OCF for the Companys North American operations with
that contained in the Companys December 2 Baseline submission. As noted, given the significant
reductions in industry volumes, (which approximates the Downside sensitivity scenario in the
December 2 submission), adjusted OCF has deteriorated by approximately $10 billion in the 2009-2012
period. The adjusted OCF deterioration is most pronounced in 2009, especially in the
1st Quarter where production activity has been dramatically reduced in line with
depressed new vehicle demand, which effectively brought down U.S. dealer stock by over 100,000
units versus the Companys
27
December 2 submission. It is this severe industry deterioration that
underlies the Companys request for Federal loan support described in Section 5.4.
5.2 GM Global Financial Outlook |
5.2 GM Global Financial OutlookOverall global financial results generally are expected to
develop along the same lines as the Companys North American operations, with breakeven adjusted
EBIT reached in 2010 and improving over the Plan window, exceeding $10 billion in 2013 and 2014, as
indicated in Table 11.
Table 11: GM Global Metrics
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Actual |
|
Restructuring Plan |
($ billions) |
|
2006 |
|
2007 |
|
2008 |
|
2009 |
|
2010 |
|
2011 |
|
2012 |
|
2013 |
|
2014 |
Industry Volume (mil. units) |
|
|
67.6 |
|
|
|
70.7 |
|
|
|
67.2 |
|
|
|
57.5 |
|
|
|
62.3 |
|
|
|
68.3 |
|
|
|
74.3 |
|
|
|
78.6 |
|
|
|
82.5 |
|
GM Wholesale Volume (mil. units) |
|
|
8.4 |
|
|
|
8.3 |
|
|
|
7.2 |
|
|
|
5.4 |
|
|
|
6.3 |
|
|
|
6.9 |
|
|
|
7.7 |
|
|
|
7.9 |
|
|
|
8.0 |
|
GM Market Share |
|
|
13.5 |
% |
|
|
13.3 |
% |
|
|
12.4 |
% |
|
|
12.0 |
% |
|
|
12.7 |
% |
|
|
12.7 |
% |
|
|
13.0 |
% |
|
|
13.0 |
% |
|
|
12.6 |
% |
Net Sales |
|
|
171.2 |
|
|
|
178.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
111.2 |
|
|
|
130.1 |
|
|
|
142.4 |
|
|
|
158.1 |
|
|
|
160.6 |
|
|
|
162.1 |
|
Aggregate Contribution Margin |
|
|
52.9 |
|
|
|
54.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
33.4 |
|
|
|
40.0 |
|
|
|
44.3 |
|
|
|
49.5 |
|
|
|
50.5 |
|
|
|
50.4 |
|
ACM as % of Net Sales |
|
|
30.9 |
% |
|
|
30.9 |
% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
30.0 |
% |
|
|
30.7 |
% |
|
|
31.1 |
% |
|
|
31.3 |
% |
|
|
31.4 |
% |
|
|
31.1 |
% |
Structural Cost |
|
|
52.9 |
|
|
|
53.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
43.3 |
|
|
|
40.0 |
|
|
|
39.6 |
|
|
|
40.2 |
|
|
|
40.4 |
|
|
|
40.3 |
|
SC as a % of Net Sales |
|
|
30.9 |
% |
|
|
30.1 |
% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
39.0 |
% |
|
|
30.8 |
% |
|
|
27.8 |
% |
|
|
25.5 |
% |
|
|
25.2 |
% |
|
|
24.9 |
% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Adjusted EBIT |
|
|
0.8 |
|
|
|
1.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
(10.2 |
) |
|
|
0.3 |
|
|
|
5.1 |
|
|
|
9.4 |
|
|
|
10.3 |
|
|
|
10.6 |
|
Adjusted EBT |
|
|
(1.6 |
) |
|
|
(0.7 |
) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
(14.2 |
) |
|
|
(5.0 |
) |
|
|
(0.1 |
) |
|
|
4.3 |
|
|
|
5.9 |
|
|
|
6.2 |
|
Adjusted OCF |
|
|
(4.4 |
) |
|
|
(2.4 |
) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
(14.0 |
) |
|
|
(3.8 |
) |
|
|
(0.6 |
) |
|
|
6.6 |
|
|
|
6.5 |
|
|
|
6.4 |
|
|
|
|
* |
|
2008 year-end financial data has not been released yet |
Adjusted operating cash flows approach breakeven levels in 2011, and improve to in excess of $6
billion in the 2012-2014 period reflecting both improving industry volumes and the full-effect of
the global restructuring initiatives. While all regions are cash flow positive, on an adjusted
basis, in this timeframe, GMs North American operations are the
most significant contributor to this result. Detailed financial projections are provided in
Appendix I.
GM EuropeSimilar to the U.S., the Companys European operations are also expected to produce
significant negative earnings and cash flow in 2009 and 2010. Reflecting a very strong product
program, and significant reductions in structural costs (including significant manufacturing
consolidation and labor cost savings), GMs operations in Europe are expected to produce positive
financial results in 2011-2014. The principal issue for GM in Europe is the near-term lack of
liquidity, solutions for which are presently being discussed with select European governments.
5.3 Financial ViabilityOne important measure of determining long-term viability is
whether the Company has positive Net Present Value (NPV). Based on the assumptions and methodology
set forth in Appendix J, Evercore Partners has performed a discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis of
the GM Restructuring Plan as part of the submission to the U.S. Department of the Treasury. This
analysis resulted in an estimated net present value (NPV) of GM after giving effect to the
implementation of the Restructuring Plan, calculated as the estimated Enterprise Value of GM less
the estimated Net Obligations of GM as of December 31, 2008 (Valuation Date).
28
The Enterprise Value of GM was calculated as the estimated value of GMs operations on a going
concern basis taking into account the projected operating cash flows of the business (Core
Enterprise Value) adjusted for (i) the estimated value of GMs investments in unconsolidated
subsidiaries (including GMAC and GMs joint ventures in China) and the present value of expected
asset sales and of the asset carve-out from GMAC (ii) the present value of estimated cash outflows
from GM to Delphi and other estimated cash restructuring costs, and (iii) the estimated value of
GMs minority interests.
The Net Obligations of GM were calculated as the sum of (i) GMs total debt less cash in excess of
the amount required for working capital, plus (ii) the present value of expected cash contributions
by GM to U.S. and international pension funds, plus (iii) the present value of the VEBA
obligations.
The NPV analysis was performed pro-forma for (i) the effects of the two-thirds reduction in public
unsecured indebtedness, and (ii) a 50 percent reduction in the VEBA. The valuation analysis is
presented as of December 31, 2008 and is based on projections and other information provided by GM
management as well as publicly available information.
Based on the Baseline Scenario financial projections developed to reflect the GM Restructuring
Plan, Evercore estimated that the Enterprise Value falls within a range of approximately $59
billion to $70 billion, with a midpoint of $65 billion. Evercore estimated that Net Obligations as
of the Valuation Date fall within a range of approximately $54 billion to $57 billion, with a
midpoint of $55 billion, implying an estimated NPV range for GM of approximately $5 billion to $14
billion, with a midpoint of $9 billion.
The NPV range does not reflect the incremental value that may be generated by balance sheet
restructuring actions in Canada and Germany which are anticipated to have an incremental positive
effect on the NPV analysis. In addition, the U.S. Hourly and Salaried Pension plans are reflected
as an $8-9 billion liability in the NPV analysis and GM is currently reviewing various options to
mitigate this impact.
In addition to the Baseline Scenario, Evercore analyzed Upside and Downside Sensitivity Scenarios
as described in Section 3.2. Using a comparable methodology to the Baseline Scenario, and based on
the Upside Sensitivity Scenario financial projections, Evercore estimated that the NPV range would
increase to approximately $30 billion to $41 billion, with a midpoint of $35 billion. Based on the
Downside Sensitivity Scenario financial projections, the estimated NPV is negative.
Appendix J sets forth the assumptions and valuation methodology used by Evercore to calculate the
NPV of GM.
5.4
LiquidityWhile the Restructuring Plan shows positive NPV, more challenging U.S. and
global economic conditions and reduced industry vehicle demand result in higher liquidity
requirements than anticipated in the December 2 Baseline outlook. The current global liquidity
outlook for General Motors retains the level of targeted cash balances of
29
approximately $11-14 billion identified in the December 2 submission necessary to support the
normal conduct of business. Adjusted operating cash flows are impacted by special items, such as
restructuring costs or additional pension fund contributions, VEBA contributions (which assumes 50%
conversion to equity), scheduled debt repayments (which assumes two-thirds conversion to equity of
the unsecured public debt), loans or other support from foreign governments to the Companys local
operations, and assumed Section 136 support. Projected Federal support is also noted. Table 12
summarizes these flows for the 2008-2014 timeframe.
Table 12: GM Global Cash Flow
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
GM Global Cash Flow |
($ billions) |
|
2008* |
|
2009 |
|
2010 |
|
2011 |
|
2012 |
|
2013 |
|
2014 |
|
Adjusted Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
|
|
|
|
(14.0 |
) |
|
|
(3.8 |
) |
|
|
(0.6 |
) |
|
|
6.6 |
|
|
|
6.5 |
|
|
|
6.4 |
|
Special Items# |
|
|
|
|
|
|
(4.1 |
) |
|
|
(1.4 |
) |
|
|
(0.5 |
) |
|
|
(0.3 |
) |
|
|
(5.8 |
) |
|
|
(6.3 |
) |
GMAC and Related |
|
|
|
|
|
|
1.1 |
|
|
|
0.6 |
|
|
|
0.5 |
|
|
|
0.2 |
|
|
|
0.2 |
|
|
|
0.2 |
|
VEBA Contributions |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
(1.1 |
) |
|
|
(1.1 |
) |
|
|
(1.1 |
) |
|
|
(1.1 |
) |
|
|
(1.1 |
) |
Debt /Foreign Govt. Financing, Maturities |
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.3 |
|
|
|
1.7 |
|
|
|
(5.3 |
) |
|
|
(3.2 |
) |
|
|
(3.6 |
) |
|
|
(2.7 |
) |
Section 136 Funding** |
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.0 |
|
|
|
2.0 |
|
|
|
1.8 |
|
|
|
1.4 |
|
|
|
0.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
Pension Funding |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5.9 |
|
|
|
6.4 |
|
U.S. TARP Funding |
|
|
|
|
|
|
12.0 |
|
|
|
2.0 |
|
|
|
4.5 |
|
|
|
(3.0 |
) |
|
|
(2.9 |
) |
|
|
(2.9 |
) |
Other |
|
|
|
|
|
|
(0.1 |
) |
|
|
(0.2 |
) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Net Cash Flow |
|
|
|
|
|
|
(0.8 |
) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
(0.7 |
) |
|
|
0.5 |
|
|
|
(0.4 |
) |
|
|
|
|
|
Memo: Cash Balance |
|
|
|
|
|
|
13.3 |
|
|
|
13.3 |
|
|
|
12.6 |
|
|
|
13.1 |
|
|
|
12.7 |
|
|
|
12.7 |
|
Memo: U.S. TARP Balance+ |
|
|
|
|
|
|
16.0 |
|
|
|
18.0 |
|
|
|
22.5 |
|
|
|
19.5 |
|
|
|
16.6 |
|
|
|
13.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
* |
|
2008 year-end financial results have not been released. |
|
** |
|
GM has submitted two applications, and will be submitting an additional application before
March 31, seeking in total more than the $7.7 billion shown. Funding GMs applications at this
level is subject to available funds and government approval. Assuming future funding of the
Section 136 program, GM will consider additional project applications. |
|
# |
|
Includes restructuring costs, Delphi, asset sales, U.S. pension contributions +
excludes $0.7 billion of warrant note and $0.9 billion of GMAC note |
As previously noted, tough economic and industry conditions contribute to significantly unfavorable
adjusted Operating Cash Flow (OCF) of ($14) billion in 2009, with liquidity further pressured due
to special items, primarily restructuring costs. The Company anticipates offsetting these cash
outflows through debt/foreign government funding, Section 136 loans and increased TARP funding
support of $16-$18 billion in the 2009 to 2010 timeframe (in addition to $0.7 billion warrant and
$0.9 billion GMAC notes).
Adjusted OCF improves significantly in 2010-2011 (approaching breakeven by 2011), and special
item-related costs are greatly reduced. However, scheduled debt repayments begin, including the
paydown of the U.S. secured bank revolver facility in 2011 and cash contributions to the VEBA in
2010. To maintain adequate cash balances during the beginning of a global economic and industry
recovery, additional funding from foreign
governments, Section 136 facilities and the Federal TARP program are assumed. By year-end 2011,
Federal TARP funding support increases to a total of $22.5 billion.
During the 2012-2014 period, industry and GM volumeswhile not yet at levels experienced earlier
this decadecontribute to adjusted OCF of approximately $6 billion annually. Absent any special
items under the Baseline scenario, this level of adjusted operating cash flow would service the
ongoing VEBA obligations and scheduled debt repayments, and enable partial repayment of Federal
support. In fact, the Baseline
30
liquidity forecast anticipates making a partial repayment of
Federal TARP funding support in 2012 ($3 billion) with full repayment by 2017.
Pension Fund StatusAs noted earlier, asset values have declined significantly over the last 6
months, especially so over the last quarter. Table 13 below tracks the value of GMs obligations
and pension fund assets for the 20052008 period, according to the metrics prescribed by Generally
Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP).
Table 13: U.S. Pension Funds
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Est. |
$ Billions |
|
2005 |
|
2006 |
|
2007 |
|
2008* |
|
|
10/31/08** |
|
|
|
|
Hourly Plans |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Projected Benefit Obligation |
|
|
57.2 |
|
|
|
56.9 |
|
|
|
58.1 |
|
|
|
66.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Plan Assets |
|
|
64.2 |
|
|
|
68.5 |
|
|
|
69.8 |
|
|
|
55.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Surplus / (Deficit) |
|
|
7.0 |
|
|
|
11.6 |
|
|
|
11.8 |
|
|
|
(11.1 |
) |
|
|
|
(3.0 |
) |
Funded Status (%) |
|
|
112 |
% |
|
|
120 |
% |
|
|
120 |
% |
|
|
83 |
% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Salaried Plans |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Projected Benefit Obligation |
|
|
30.2 |
|
|
|
27.4 |
|
|
|
26.0 |
|
|
|
30.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Plan Assets |
|
|
30.7 |
|
|
|
32.9 |
|
|
|
34.2 |
|
|
|
28.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Surplus / (Deficit) |
|
|
0.5 |
|
|
|
5.6 |
|
|
|
8.2 |
|
|
|
(1.7 |
) |
|
|
|
1.2 |
|
Funded Status (%) |
|
|
102 |
% |
|
|
120 |
% |
|
|
132 |
% |
|
|
95 |
% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total U.S. Qualified Plans |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Projected Benefit Obligation |
|
|
87.4 |
|
|
|
84.2 |
|
|
|
84.1 |
|
|
|
96.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Plan Assets |
|
|
95.0 |
|
|
|
101.4 |
|
|
|
104.1 |
|
|
|
84.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Surplus / (Deficit) |
|
|
7.5 |
|
|
|
17.1 |
|
|
|
20.0 |
|
|
|
(12.7 |
) |
|
|
|
(1.8 |
) |
Funded Status (%) |
|
|
109 |
% |
|
|
120 |
% |
|
|
124 |
% |
|
|
87 |
% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
* |
|
Preliminary estimate subject to finalization of valuations
|
|
** |
|
Non-GAAP estimates provided in December 2 submission |
As indicated, GMs pension funds have been consistently over-funded in 2005 2007 timeframe. The
most recent internal estimate available prior to the December 2 submission (an estimate as of
October 31, 2008) indicated the combined funds were under-funded, but not to the extent that the
Company expected any significant near-term contributions. As of December 31, 2008, the recent
declines in market values indicate on a preliminary basis (subject to final valuation) an
under-funded status of approximately $12-13 billion. The funded status of the pension plan under
GAAP is subject to many variables, including asset returns and discount rates. For example, a 25
basis point discount rate increase at the end of 2008 would have reduced the Hourly Plan Projected
Benefit Obligation (PBO) by approximately $1.4 billion and the Salaried Plan PBO by approximately
$0.7 billion.
Pension funding requirements are dictated by a set of rules different than those imposed by GAAP
accounting. Nevertheless, assuming the interest rates remain at December 31, 2008 levels and
pension fund assets earn 8.5% annually going forward, the Company may need to make significant
contributions to the U.S. Hourly Pension Plan in the 2013-2014 timeframe. At this point, it is
premature to conclude that the Company will need to make additional pension contributions in 2013
and 2014. General Motors is currently analyzing its pension funding strategies. In view of
significant negative asset returns in 2008 for most U.S. corporate pension plans, it is likely that
the majority of U.S. corporations will re-evaluate funding strategies for their defined benefit
plans.
31
Loan SensitivitiesAppendix I presents the Companys financial projections in detail. No
assumption has been made in the financial projections to take advantage of the inevitable recovery
in capital markets, especially as the flow of credit is stabilized and economic conditions recover.
As the Companys Restructuring Plan takes root, and earnings and cash flow improve, General Motors
should be able to access the capital markets, thereby reducing the level of Federal funding support
currently projected.
The industrys sensitivity to economic conditions also bears repeating. Table 14 contains U.S.
TARP loan balances associated with the Baseline, Upside and Downside sensitivity that are set out
in Table 1 and Appendix B. Under the Companys Upside sensitivity scenario, which just a year ago
was in line with external forecasts, Federal TARP support of $13 billion would be needed in 2011,
with full repayment occurring in 2014.
Table 14: U.S. TARP Loan Balance Under Various Volume Scenarios
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
U.S. TARP Loan Balance ($ Billions) |
|
|
2009 |
|
2010 |
|
2011 |
|
2012 |
|
2013 |
|
2014 |
|
Upside Sensitivity |
|
|
12.0 |
|
|
|
10.5 |
|
|
|
13.0 |
|
|
|
3.5 |
|
|
|
1.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
Baseline Scenario |
|
|
16.0 |
|
|
|
18.0 |
|
|
|
22.5 |
|
|
|
19.5 |
|
|
|
16.6 |
|
|
|
13.7 |
|
Downside Sensitivity |
|
|
18.0 |
|
|
|
22.0 |
|
|
|
29.0 |
|
|
|
28.5 |
|
|
|
30.1 |
|
|
|
29.7 |
|
|
The Company has also done a Downside sensitivity scenario with lower U.S. and global volumes.
Under this scenario, Federal TARP funding support could grow to about $30 billion by 2011.
5.5
Key RisksAs with any plan, there are certain key risks that threaten full
implementation and require close attention. For General Motors Restructuring Plan, these risks
are summarized as follows:
|
* |
|
Supply ChainLarge production cuts, especially in Q1 2009, have severely
affected cash flow and liquidity for the automotive supply chain. Suppliers are
working diligently to reduce costs and breakeven points and conserve cash, but there
is a limit to what can be done in the short term. Suppliers face the additional
challenge of many of their lenders being reluctant to include domestic OEM receivables
in their borrowing base calculations because of concerns about OEM viability,
impairing supplier liquidity when it is most needed. Finally, some suppliers face the
possibility of a going concern qualification from their auditors based in part on
their receivable exposures. Going concern qualifications can trigger loan and bond
defaults and make raising new capital nearly impossible, placing the survival of the
affected supplier in jeopardy. |
|
|
|
|
To address these issues, the Company proposes that the Government create a credit
insurance program, or a government sponsored factoring program, for OEM receivables.
The program would work as follows: the Government would agree to guarantee OEM
receivables up to a certain limit, the OEMs would select participating credit insurance
providers, or supply chain financing |
32
|
|
|
providers, based on a competitive process, and
suppliers would enroll in the program as they deem necessary, and pay insurance and
processing fees. The Company estimates its requirements for such a program at
approximately $4.5 billion through 2011 for direct material and logistics suppliers,
with eligible GM receivables limited to those associated with the suppliers U.S.-based
manufacturing operations. GM believes the program needs to be in place by March 2009 as
there will be significant working capital requirements to support the planned increase
in the GM production schedule, following very low production levels in January and
February. This proposal guarantees eventual payment of the affected receivables,
allowing suppliers access to financing. |
|
|
|
|
The proposed program is simple to set up and inexpensive to administer, and quickly and
effectively addresses supplier liquidity issues. It would significantly improve the
availability of private capital to the supply base without direct Government outlay,
most likely avoiding a wave of supplier bankruptcies and disruptions in the shared
automotive supply chain. As GM demonstrates its viability, as suppliers restructure and consolidate in an orderly
fashion, and as GM migrates its supply base to suppliers with the highest long-term
viability, the need for the program would be reduced and eventually eliminated, without
expense to the Government. More on GMs efforts related to supply chain development is
contained in Appendix K. |
|
|
* |
|
DelphiThe Companys revised Plan includes near-term liquidity support and
other commitments to Delphi based on current agreements between the Company and
Delphi. In addition, the revised Plan contemplates the purchase of certain sites from
Delphi that represent an important source of supply for the Company and potential
incremental liquidity support as part of reaching an agreement with Delphi on this
purchase. |
|
|
|
|
Delphi is also seeking to address its underfunded pension plans and to secure exit
financing to successfully emerge from bankruptcy. Based on current agreements with
Delphi, the Company is required to absorb the remaining hourly pension plan only under
certain conditions, which are not currently expected to be met. Also, the Company has
no obligation to absorb Delphis salaried pension plan. As such, the Federal loan
support outlined in the Companys revised Plan does not contemplate the transfer of
either the hourly or salaried pension plans to the Company. Delphi is unlikely to be
able to support these underfunded pension plans going forward and may need to terminate
these plans, which would impact the PBGC. |
|
|
|
|
A portion of Delphis exit funding needs would be satisfied through the proceeds
stemming from the sale of sites to the Company. However, given current capital market
environments, it is uncertain whether Delphi will be able to raise the balance of the
funding necessary to exit bankruptcy. If Delphi is unsuccessful in addressing its
underfunded pension plans and raising exit |
33
|
|
|
financing, it would represent a significant
risk to the Companys revised Plan. In this event, the Company would consider
alternative strategies, including utilizing other sources of supply, albeit requiring
some lead time to accomplish. |
|
|
* |
|
Bond ExchangeApproximately $1 billion of annual interest expense savings is
assumed in the Plan, based on conversion of two-thirds of the Companys outstanding
unsecured public debt to equity. As noted previously in this report, the timetable to
execute this complex transaction is compressed in light of the required timing
objectives. A successful bond exchange will require several key elements and events
to fall into place in order to avoid a bankruptcy filing. The Company remains
convinced bankruptcy would be protracted with a significant possibility that exit
would not be achieved. |
|
|
* |
|
VEBA RestructuringAs noted, a successful conversion of 50% of current
obligations under the VEBA settlement agreement is assumed in the Plan, yielding $1.4
billion in cash savings in 2009. The Company is in discussions
with the UAW and counsel representing the class of GM-UAW retirees on modifications to
the VEBA settlement agreement that satisfy the loan agreement and meet the requirements
of the Plan. Any such agreement will require court approval and, in all likelihood,
will be tied to a successful bond exchange. |
|
|
* |
|
Section 136 LoansThe Companys Plan assumes $7.7 billion in Section 136
funding. The Department of Energy has indicated any such loans will also be
conditioned on the finding of the U.S. Department of the Treasury around the long-term
viability of General Motors. However, the total amount of proceeds may be lower than
assumed in the Companys Plan, as these proceeds are subject to the total size of the
program and to the approval of the specific projects included in the applications. |
|
|
* |
|
Asset SalesThe Plan assumes planned sale of AC Delcos Independent
Aftermarkets business and the Strasbourg Transmission Plant in France for total
estimated proceeds of $1.5 billion in 2009. Negotiations are well under way with
potential purchasers. In the event of any delays in the sale process, or lower than
estimated proceeds, the Company will need additional liquidity in 2009. |
|
|
* |
|
GMACIn December 2008, the Federal Reserve approved GMACs application
to become a Bank Holding Company and the U.S. Department of the Treasury made a $5
billion TARP investment in GMAC. This was an important and positive development not
just for GMAC, but as well for General Motors given the role GMAC plays in the
everyday conduct of the Companys business. This action, as well as GMACs successful
bond exchange, leaves GMAC significantly better positioned to be competitive over the
long-term. As a result of these developments, at year end 2008 GM and |
34
|
|
|
GMAC were able to launch special financing programs for select 2008 and 2009 models. |
|
|
|
Nevertheless, the ongoing lack of liquidity in credit markets continues to create
difficulties for GMAC in securing funding for its automotive assets. Even programs such
as TALF have not provided a funding benefit to GMAC since participation requires that
securities be rated AAA, and rating agencies are not willing to provide the required
rating level while GMs situation remains unresolved. Should the rating agencies
continue to take this view, even after GM submits its Viability Plan, and potentially
receives Federal Government support, the continued lack of funding will have a
substantial negative impact on GMACs ability to provide both retail and wholesale
funding in the U.S. and Canada, and consequently on GMs ability to sell cars and trucks
in these markets. |
|
|
* |
|
Foreign Government SupportTerms and conditions of the U.S. Federal loans
essentially limit the Companys ability to manage cash on a global basis,
which has been its historic operating model. As a result, any foreign operations of the
Company that are significant net users of cash during the Plan timeframe need to
restructure and/or obtain support from their host governments. Many such initiatives
are under way, assumed to yield $6 billion by 2010. However, there can be no assurances
that this funding will be provided by these foreign governments. |
These are in addition to the risks related to industry volumes (related to economic recovery,
credit availability, and consumer confidence), GM share and pricing (related to the success of GMs
product plan and brand and channel restructuring), and GMs various cost reduction initiatives.
These issues and the associated risks have already been extensively discussed.
5.6
Form of Government FundingIn view of the uncertain economic environment and the risk
factors outlined above, the Company requests the U.S. Government consider funding GM with a
combination of secured term debt, a revolving line of credit and preferred equity. Specifically,
the difference in the Federal funding requirement between the Baseline scenario and Downside
sensitivity scenario (i.e., the difference between the $30 billion downside and the $22.5 billion
baseline funding requirements) could be met with a secured revolver facility ($7.5 billion). The
collateral used to support the current $13.4 billion U.S. Department of the Treasury term loan
could be used to support this proposed $7.5 billion secured revolver facility and a $6 billion term
loan. The remaining $16.5 billion of funding requirements could be met with a preferred share
investment by the U.S. Government into the Company. Chart 5 illustrates this potential funding
mix.
35
Chart 5: Potential Funding Mix
The proposed $16.5 billion preferred equity investment would provide medium term funding and would
also provide the U.S. taxpayer with a higher rate of return commensurate with the higher returns
TARP receives on preferred equity investments in financial institutions. Under Baseline industry
volumes, the proposed Federal loans would be substantially repaid by 2013, and the proposed
preferred equity investment would be repaid by 2017 assuming no U.S. pension contributions are
required.
The Company believes that it is important to review the Plan with the U.S. Department of the
Treasury and engage in a dialog regarding the amount, form and term of the Federal funding, taking
into account the risks, opportunities and taxpayer protection. The above mix of funding represents
one concept that can be the basis for dialog.
5.7
Bankruptcy ConsiderationsAs noted in the General Motors December 2 submission, some
industry observers have suggested bankruptcy is a reasonable, if not preferred, restructuring
optionallowing for a more all-encompassing resolution of the Companys liabilities than otherwise
possible. It has also been suggested that a bankruptcy proceeding can be quick, allowing the new
company to be up and running in a matter of weeks.
Quick has seldom been the pace of bankruptcy proceedings in this country. Based on data supplied
by Lakeview Capital, of 159 cases completed since 1995 involving companies with assets of $1
billion or greater, only 4 cases (3%) exited bankruptcy in 90 days or less. The vast majority of
these cases took one year or more, with one-third taking two years or more. The size and scope of
General Motors makes it unique relative to this sample, suggesting a longer versus a shorter
duration.
The more important consideration is revenue loss. All research indicates bankruptcy would have a
dramatic impact on GM sales and revenue. According to CNW Market Research, more than 80% of
consumers intending to purchase a new vehicle (during the following 6 months) would not do so from
a company that filed for bankruptcy. In the case of Daewoo Motor, this company experienced a
permanent 40% reduction in business in South Korea following a two-year restructuring. If the
South Korean market was as competitive as the U.S., Daewoos revenue loss would likely have been
far greater.
36
GM has attempted to model the potential cost and benefits of various bankruptcy scenarios.
Although any model requires simplifying assumptions, which inherently cause them to understate
various risks, the analysis confirms that a restructuring process outside of bankruptcy is highly
preferable for all constituencies. The Companys detailed analysis of bankruptcy scenarios,
compared to the proposed Restructuring Plan, is contained in Appendix L.
5.8
Other ConsiderationsWhile this Plan is confined to the significant value created
through restructuring of General Motors business, there is unquestionably additional value that
could be obtained through consolidation of the domestic industry. The Company has been involved in
very detailed evaluations of consolidation potentials over the past few years, and its
capabilitiesfor example, purchasingmost often are the lever pulled to create joint value. The
recent, rapid deterioration in economic conditions have made investment in the up-front costs
associated with such consolidations an obviously lesser priority than addressing the immediate
restructuring needs of General Motors. If the U.S. Department of the Treasury desires to explore
the topic of industry consolidation, the Company would certainly be prepared to share its thoughts.
6. Summary
General Motors submits a Plan that is aggressive, comprehensive and doable, and also one that is
responsive to changing economic and industry conditions, since December 2. The Plan achieves a
positive NPV under the Baseline volume assumptions demonstrating support that GM will be viable for
the long-term. Funding requirements are addressed in this Plan, with ongoing negotiations of the
conversion of GMs VEBA debt obligations to equity and working to a timeline that has the bond
exchange offer commencing before the end of March.
The Company believes this Plan puts its business, both in the United States and around the world,
on sound, sustainable and competitive footings. It builds on demonstrated, world class
capabilities in design, engineering, fuel efficiency, purchasing and manufacturing, importantly
closing competitive cost gaps and resolving long-standing legacy cost issues that have contributed
to unsupportable debt levels.
The Plan is based on conservative assumptions, more so than many well-regarded outside forecasts.
Importantly, the Plan requires considerable sacrifices from all stakeholdersunions, bondholders,
dealers, suppliers, retirees, active employees and executives. Regarding executives, significant
compensation reductions were contained in the December 2 submission, including a $1 per year salary
and retainer for the Companys CEO and Board Members, respectively, for 2009. This Plan further
reduces salaries by 20-30% for the next four most senior officers, 10% for all other U.S.
executives, and reduces retirement benefits for retired executives by a comparable amount, for the
May-December 2009 period. Reductions in certain other benefit programs will also take effect on
May 1, 2009.
37
There is considerable detail and support behind GMs Plan, and the Company expects to discuss the
Plan at length with the U.S. Department of the Treasury. These discussions will be important not
only to building confidence in the Plan, and enlisting Federal support with various stakeholders,
but as well to the U.S. Department of the Treasurys view of deliverables for the progress report
on the Plan required by March 31. This progress report is a significant event, as it is the basis
for the issuance of the Plan Completion Certificate to Congress, which signifies long-term
viability.
The Company extends an open invitation to the U.S. Department of the Treasury to visit General
Motors to view first-hand the many product programs, advanced propulsion technologies, lean
manufacturing facilities, and its capable and energized workforce.
Respectfully submitted,
General Motors Corporation
38
EXCHANGE OFFER INFORMATION
In connection with the proposed public exchange offers General Motors plans to file documents with
the Securities and Exchange Commission, including filing a Registration Statement on Form S-4 and a
Schedule TO containing a prospectus, consent solicitation and tender offer statement regarding the
proposed transaction. Investors and security holders of GM are urged to carefully read the
documents when they are available, because they will contain important information about the
proposed transaction. Investors and security holders may obtain free copies of these documents
(when available) and other documents filed with the SEC at the SECs web site at www.sec.gov or by
contacting Nick S. Cyprus at (313)556-5000.
GM and its directors and executive officers may be deemed participants in the solicitation of
proxies with respect to the proposed transaction. Information regarding the interests of these
directors and executive officers in the proposed transaction will be included in the documents
described above. Additional information regarding the directors and executive officers is also
included in GMs proxy statement for its 2008 Annual Meeting of Stockholders, which was filed with
the SEC on April 25, 2008, and additional information is available in the Annual Report on Form
10-K, which was filed with the SEC on February 28, 2008, respectively.
SAFE HARBOR PROVISION
In this Plan, General Motors uses words like may, will, would, could, should, believe,
estimate, project, potential, expect, plan, seek, intend, evaluate, pursue,
anticipate, continue, design, impact, forecast, target, outlook, initiative,
objective, design, goal or similar expressions to identify forward-looking statements that
represent the Companys current judgment about possible future events. Aside from statements of
historical fact, all statements in this Plan and in related comments by GMs management are
forward-looking statements that necessarily involve risks and uncertainties. In making these
statements GM relies on assumptions and analyses based on the Companys experience and perception
of historical trends, current conditions and expected future developments as well as other factors
the Company considers appropriate under the circumstances. Whether actual future results and
developments will be consistent with the Companys expectations and predictions depends on a number
of factors in addition to the Key Risks described on pages 32-35 in the Plan, including but not
limited to:
|
|
|
GMs ability to obtain adequate liquidity and financing sources and establish an
appropriate level of debt, including the Companys ability to negotiate the required debt
conversions with GMs bondholders, commercial lenders and other creditors and change in
contributions to the VEBA trust with representatives of the VEBA; |
|
|
|
|
GMs ability to realize production efficiencies and to achieve reductions in costs as a
result of the turnaround restructuring and the modifications in compensation |
39
|
|
|
and work rules negotiated with the UAW and other unions that represent the Companys hourly
employees; |
|
|
|
|
Consumers confidence in the Companys viability as a continuing entity and GMs
ability to continue to attract customers, particularly for the Companys new products
including cars and crossover vehicles; |
|
|
|
|
Availability of adequate financing on acceptable terms to GMs customers, dealers,
distributors and suppliers to enable them to continue their business relationships with
the Company; |
|
|
|
|
Financial viability and ability to borrow of the Companys key suppliers, including
Delphis ability to address its underfunded pension plans and to emerge from bankruptcy
proceedings; |
|
|
|
|
GMs ability to sell, spin off or phase out some of the Companys brands as planned, to
manage the distribution channels for the Companys products and to complete other planned
asset sales; |
|
|
|
|
GMs ability to qualify for federal funding of the Companys advanced technology
vehicle programs under Section 136; |
|
|
|
|
Ability of GMs foreign operations to restructure or to qualify for support from host
governments; |
|
|
|
|
GMACs ability to obtain funding to provide both wholesale and retail financing in the
United States and Canada, to support GMs ability to sell vehicles in those markets; and |
|
|
|
|
Overall strength and stability of general economic conditions and of the automotive
industry, both in the United States and in global markets. |
These cautions apply to all GM forward-looking statements. GM cannot provide assurance that the
results or developments that the Company anticipates will happen or, even if they do happen, that
they will have the anticipated effects on GM and the Companys subsidiaries or the Companys
businesses or operations. In particular, financial projections are necessarily speculative, and it
is likely that one or more of the assumptions and estimates that are the basis of GMs financial
projections will not be accurate. Accordingly, GM expects that the Companys actual financial
condition and results of operations will differ, perhaps materially, from what the Company
describes in the Plan.
40
2009-2014 Restructuring Plan
Appendix
February 17th, 2009
|
Table of Contents
ROLE OF GM AND THE DOMESTIC AUTO INDUSTRY IN THE U.S. ECONOMY
ECONOMIC AND INDUSTRY ASSUMPTIONS
GM MARKET SHARE AND UNIT VOLUME PROJECTIONS
FUTURE PRODUCT LAUNCHES
GM U.S. BRAND AND NETWORK PLANS
SALARIED COMPETITIVENESS
VEBA / UNSECURED PUBLIC DEBT
RESTRUCTURING PLAN MILESTONES
2009-2014 FINANCIAL PROJECTIONS
ENTERPRISE VALUE AND NPV
SUPPLY BASE DEVELOPMENT
BANKRUPTCY ANALYSIS
|
41
Appendix A
ROLE OF GM AND THE DOMESTIC AUTO
INDUSTRY IN THE U.S. ECONOMY
|
Importance of GM and the Domestic Auto Industry Summary
The auto industry is critical to the national economy, directly providing and
supporting more than 4.7 million jobs (A2)
Domestic auto manufacturers are full-line producers and are significantly more
committed to a U.S. supply base and to investing in America (A3)
Domestic manufacturers have higher US/Canadian parts content than other
manufacturers, with GM highest of all at 77% (A4)
GM additionally contributes to the economy by: (A5)
Providing good jobs at good wages
Supporting more than one million employees, retirees, and dependents with
pensions, health care, or both
Being a national innovator in manufacturing
Working to commercialize a wide range of research and development (R&D)
activities, including those critically important to national goals
Failure of part or all of the domestic industry poses severe risks for the U.S.
economy, including an estimated 0.9 - 3.0 million job losses which would be
concentrated in Michigan and other vulnerable Upper Midwest states (A6-A9)
1
2
3
4
5
A1
|
42
Importance of the Auto Industry to the U.S. Economy
A2
Manufacturers directly provide approximately 334,000 U.S. jobs, nearly
two-thirds of which are with GM, Ford, and Chrysler1
Manufacturers indirectly support another 4.4 million jobs, one of the
highest multipliers in the economy
Nearly 0.7 million in parts manufacturing2
3.7 million3 in related fields such as auto dealers and auto repair and
maintenance
For every manufacturer job there are nearly two jobs upstream in
supplier industries and more than 10 jobs downstream
The heart and soul of U.S. manufacturing, where many of the nation's most
advanced manufacturing concepts have been developed and perfected
1Center for Automotive Research study
2Congressional Research Service, U.S. Motor Vehicle Industry: Federal Financial Assistance and Restructuring, January 30, 2009
3Department of Labor, Bureau of Economic Statistics, Current Employment Survey, November 22, 2008
|
Importance of the Domestic Auto Industry
Full-line manufacturers-not only assembly but research and development
(R&D), design, engineering, testing and validation, and administration
Significantly more focus on a U.S. supply base
Very strong track record of U.S. investment
1GM, Ford, and Chrysler, American Automobile Labeling Act, DesRosiers Automotive Consultants Inc. (2007)
2Data from GM, Ford, Chrysler, JAMA, BMW, Daimler, and Hyundai
Series 1
General Motors, Ford, and Chrysler 225
All Others 40
Auto Industry Investments in the U.S.2
(1980-2007, in Billions of Dollars)
Series 1
General Motors, Ford, and Chrysler 156
All Others 58
U.S. Auto Parts and Materials Purchases1
(2007, in Billions of Dollars)
A3
|
43
GM Has Highest US/Canadian Content for Vehicles
Manufactured in North America
12008 US/Canadian content from American Automobile Labeling Act except where only 2009 data is available, volume weighted by
Automotive News 2008 North American vehicle production
2US/Canadian content percentage reflects only vehicles produced in North America--for example, Mazda 6 for Mazda and GL, M, and R
Class for Mercedes
Series 1
General Motors 0.77
Ford 0.71
Chrysler 0.67
Toyota 0.66
Mazda 0.63
Mercedes-Benz 0.62
Mitsubishi 0.61
Honda 0.61
Nissan 0.58
Suzuki 0.55
Subaru 0.54
Hyundai 0.38
BMW 0.29
Volkswagen 0.13
US/Canadian Content for Vehicles Manufactured in North America1
Detroit 3
Average
73%
All Other
Average
55%
A4
|
Specific Additional GM Contributions to the National Economy
GM provides good jobs at good wages
One million U.S. employees, dependents, retirees and their spouses, and
surviving spouses depend on GM health care benefits, and GM is the largest
private provider of health care in the U.S.
More than 650,000 U.S. retirees and their dependents benefited from GM
pension payments last year
GM is a national innovator in manufacturing, and fully competitive on
productivity with industry leaders such as Toyota
GM is one of the nation's largest and most successful investors in R&D,
with a strong history of success and a wide variety of innovations in the
process of commercialization that are directly relevant to national goals of
energy efficiency, energy independence, and safety
A5
|
44
Risk of Huge Job Losses and Severe Damage to the
Economy if Part or All of the Domestic Industry Fails
External Forecasts of U.S. Economic Impact of
Partial or Full Failure of Detroit 3
Source: Congressional Research Service; U.S. Motor Vehicle Industry: Federal Financial
Assistance and Restructuring; December 3, 2008 and January 30, 2008 reports
A6
|
GM Estimates In Line With External Estimates
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Haver Analytics, GM analysis
GM Estimates of U.S. Economic Impact of
Partial or Full Failure of Detroit 3
A7
|
45
Any Such Impact Concentrated in Michigan and Other
Economically-Stressed Upper Midwest States
Series 1
Michigan 28.4
Ohio 11.6
Indiana 8.1
All Other 51.9
Michigan
28%
Ohio
12%
Indiana 8%
All Other
52%
Michigan
17%
Ohio
12%
Indiana
8%
All Other
63%
Motor Vehicle Manufacturing Employment
Vehicle Parts Manufacturing Employment
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics / Haver Analytics
A8
|
Rebound of Automotive Output Expected to Lead GDP
Recovery; Overall Recovery at Risk With Auto Failure
A9
|
46
Appendix B
ECONOMIC AND INDUSTRY
ASSUMPTIONS
|
Economic and Industry Assumptions Summary
B1
Since peak, global industry has dropped 24% and U.S. industry 40% (B2-B3)
GM has forecasted GDP and automotive volumes by market; automotive forecasts
include upside and downside sensitivities (B4-B7)
Both forecasts are generally more conservative than external forecasts (B8-B11)
GM's oil price forecast predicts an increase to $130 per barrel by 2014, a more
rapid rise in prices than the outside consensus (B12-B13)
Rising oil prices are expected to drive a segment shift away from trucks towards
cars and crossovers over the 2009-2014 period (B14)
1
2
3
4
5
|
47
2009 Global Industry Outlook about 57.5M - back to 2001 level
US 2009 sales of 10.5M would be worst since 1970
Japan at 4.6M worst since 1977
W Europe at 13.5M worst since 1994
Emerging Markets giving back large gains made in last two years
Global Industry Has Dropped 23.5% Since Jan 2008 Peak
B2
|
U.S. Industry Has Dropped Nearly 40% Since 2007
B3
Source: GMIA, Mfr Estimate File
* Includes Light & Heavy Industry
SAAR ( in Millions)
Lowest Per Capita
Sales Rate in 50 Years
|
48
GM Real GDP Growth Outlook by Region
B4
|
Regional Total Industry Baseline Outlook (Volume in
Millions)
B5
NA
GME
AP
LAAM
13.0
19.8
18.4
24.1
20.4
30.8
5.7
7.8
|
49
Regional Industry Baseline Outlook and Sensitivities
B6
|
U.S. Total Industry Volume Forecast Detail
GM's forecast remains conservative; the consensus forecast for 2010 is 13.4m versus our 12.5m, and GM's 2010 Q4 of 13.5m is close
to the Consensus annual average for all of 2010.
Replacement demand is about 12.5m -- which is equal to our 2010 forecast - and close to vehicle ownership stagnation; in addition,
there are about 2 M new drivers every year, for which we are not assuming added sales.
Many potential buyers are not able to buy due to credit conditions, so once credit market returns to normal, the release of pent up
demand will actually increase sales
B7
|
50
GM Economic Forecasts More Conservative Than External
Forecasts - U.S. Example
B8
GM's GDP forecast is similar to Consensus Blue Chip Forecast
GM's forecast is more optimistic than CBO forecast in 2010 as it expects a larger
positive effect from the stimulus package, but substantially more conservative in
2011-2014
|
Global Total Industry Forecast Comparison
GM's global industry forecast is conservative compared with external
forecasts, especially in the 2009 - 2011 period
B9
Note: the differences partly reflect a wider coverage of Global Insight's data,
in markets where GM has no operations, such as Iran.
(Mil. Units)
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
GM (Baseline)
67.6
70.7
67.2
57.5
62.3
68.3
74.3
78.6
82.5
Global Insight
68.8
72.2
68.9
61.7
66.1
72.5
77.3
80.8
83.7
Difference
1.12
1.45
1.85
4.14
3.79
4.22
2.97
2.32
1.18
|
51
U.S. Total Industry Forecast Comparison
B10
Wall Street analyst consensus forecast* (Feb 16, 2009):
2009: 11.5 m (range 11.1 to 12.3)
2010: 13.2 m (range 11.8 to 14.3)
Consensus Blue Chip forecast* (February 2009):
2009: 11.2 m (range 8.9 to 13.3)
2010: 13.0 m (range 9.6 to 16.7)
GM downside scenario for 2010: 11.5m
*Note: 300k units are added to the light vehicle forecast figures to reflect total industry
US Industry Forecast
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
GM Estimate (Baseline)
13.5
10.5
12.5
14.3
16.0
16.4
16.8
Global Insight
13.5
10.7
12.9
14.9
15.9
16.7
17.5
JD Power & Assoc.
13.5
11.7
13.7
15.0
15.8
16.6
17.0
|
Once Adjusted for Population, GM's U.S. Industry Forecast is Very Conservative
Versus the Last Major Economic Downturn and Recovery (1978-85)
B11
Source: GMIA, Census Bureau
|
52
09/2008 Forecast
12/2008 Forecast
GM Crude Oil Price Baseline Forecast
B12
Low Oil Price Risk:
Prolonged global
recession stifles
demand for energy in
OECD and emerging
markets
High Oil Price Risk:
Due to insufficient
investment in
production capacity
during global recession,
supply is not able to
meet future oil demand
|
US Oil/Gas Price Assumptions
B13
Prior GM oil price outlooks were very conservative: assuming tight supply
conditions would quickly drive oil prices up from current levels. However, most
external forecasters assume a more gradual increase in oil prices
While oil prices are likely to remain volatile, GM's baseline assumes prices rise
more slowly as global energy demand gradually recovers with the economy
GM's Plan therefore adopts a more gradual increase in oil prices, closer to the
consensus view
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Oil Prices ($/bbl)
Dec 2 Viability Plan
100
53
75
100
120
130
130
Current Viability Plan
100
53
68
87
98
113
130
Gas Prices ($/gal)
Dec 2 Viability Plan
3.28
2.05
2.70
3.35
3.85
4.00
4.00
Current Viability Plan
3.28
2.05
2.50
2.90
3.20
3.50
4.00
Consensus* ($/bbl)
100
54
70
78
80
n/a
n/a
*Median value of Bloomberg survey of 12 analysts (Jan/Feb 09)
|
53
Mix
Vol
(000's)
Mix
Vol
(000's)
Mix
Vol
(000's)
Mix
Vol
(000's)
Mix
Vol
(000's)
Mix
Vol
(000's)
Mix
Vol
(000's)
Total Industry
13,503
10,500
12,500
14,300
16,000
16,400
16,800
Car
50.0%
6,757
46.0%
4,830
47.2%
5,906
48.4%
6,921
49.0%
7,840
49.5%
8,118
50.0%
8,400
Crossover
18.2%
2,457
20.2%
2,119
21.0%
2,619
21.5%
3,079
22.3%
3,568
22.5%
3,695
23.0%
3,871
Truck
31.8%
4,288
33.8%
3,551
31.8%
3,975
30.1%
4,300
28.7%
4,592
28.0%
4,587
27.0%
4,529
Small Car
3.6%
491
3.1%
326
3.2%
405
3.6%
515
3.7%
597
3.9%
631
4.1%
680
Compact Car-Reg.
12.2%
1,649
10.2%
1,071
11.0%
1,375
11.5%
1,645
12.3%
1,968
12.6%
2,066
12.9%
2,159
Mid Car
15.6%
2,110
14.0%
1,470
14.2%
1,775
14.2%
2,035
14.4%
2,296
14.4%
2,362
14.4%
2,419
Large Car
6.0%
810
5.6%
588
5.4%
675
5.1%
729
4.5%
720
4.2%
689
4.0%
664
Compact Lux Car
3.2%
433
3.3%
347
3.2%
400
3.5%
501
3.6%
581
3.7%
607
3.9%
647
Mid Lux Car
2.9%
389
3.3%
341
3.2%
394
3.1%
439
3.1%
488
3.1%
503
3.0%
507
Compact SUV-Cross.
8.1%
1,090
8.5%
893
8.7%
1,088
8.8%
1,258
8.9%
1,416
8.7%
1,427
8.6%
1,448
Mid SUV-Crossover
5.4%
733
6.5%
683
6.8%
850
7.0%
1,001
7.1%
1,128
7.1%
1,156
7.2%
1,203
Mid Lux SUV-Cross.
2.3%
309
2.5%
263
2.5%
306
2.5%
358
2.5%
395
2.5%
402
2.6%
442
Large Pickup
11.9%
1,601
13.9%
1,460
13.3%
1,656
12.8%
1,830
12.1%
1,936
12.0%
1,968
11.8%
1,982
Large SUV
2.3%
316
2.6%
273
2.3%
281
2.0%
286
1.8%
291
1.7%
279
1.6%
260
Large Lux SUV
0.8%
112
1.0%
105
0.9%
113
0.9%
122
0.8%
125
0.6%
102
0.4%
62
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Memo:
- Large/Large Lux SUV
3.2%
429
3.6%
378
3.2%
394
2.9%
408
2.6%
416
2.3%
380
1.9%
323
Gas Price Assumptions:
- Nominal Gas Price
$3.28
$2.05
$2.50
$2.90
$3.20
$3.50
$4.00
- Real Gas Price (2008 $)
$3.28
$2.07
$2.45
$2.80
$3.00
$3.20
$3.55
2008 Actuals
NEW: 2009
NEW: 2010
NEW: 2011
NEW: 2012
NEW: 2013
NEW: 2014
Rising Expected Oil Prices Drive U.S. Segment Shift Away
From Truck and Toward Car and Crossover
B14
US Industry Segment mix reflects:
Near-term depth of recession and gas prices at $2/gal ($US) with out-year economic recovery
and gas price increase to $4/gal
Structural shift in US/Canada rental industry which tempers Compact/Mid Car volume
US Segment Mix
|
54
Appendix C
GM MARKET SHARE AND UNIT VOLUME
PROJECTIONS
|
GM Market Share and Unit Volume Projections Summary
C1
GM retail share shows stabilization since 2005 (C2)
U.S. market share is expected to drop from 22.0% in 2009 to 19.7% in 2014, based
on detailed projections by segment including analysis of GM vehicles versus
expected competitive vehicles; similar projections have been made for other
markets (C3-C13)
GM volume projections have been created from these market share projections
applied to expected industry volumes by market and segment (C3-C13)
GM shares are increasingly driven by positive product attributes and volume per
nameplate is expected to rise with the shift to 'fewer, better' entries (C14-C15)
1
2
3
4
|
55
Aug. '05
GM Retail Share Shows Stabilization Since 2005
Market share stability achieved after historical decline of 0.62 point in total market
share per year since 1962
C2
|
GM Global Market Share Forecast
C3
GM Market Share GM Market Share 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
U.S. December 2 Baseline 21.5% 21.5% 21.3% 20.3% 20.5% n/a n/a
Viability Plan 2 22.1% 22.0% 21.1% 20.2% 20.0% 19.8% 19.7%
Change from 12/2 0.6 pts. 0.5 pts. (0.2) pts. (0.1) pts. (0.5) pts. n/a n/a
GMNA December 2 Baseline 21.2% 20.8% 20.4% 19.5% 19.8% n/a n/a
Viability Plan 2 21.5% 21.1% 20.4% 19.5% 19.4% 19.3% 19.1%
Change from 12/2 0.3 pts. 0.3 pts. (0.4) pts. n/a n/a
GME December 2 Baseline 9.2% 9.8% 10.0% 10.2% 10.7% n/a n/a
Viability Plan 2 9.3% 9.1% 9.9% 9.8% 10.6% 10.7% 10.4%
Change from 12/2 0.1 pts. (0.7) pts. (0.1) pts. (0.4) pts. (0.1) pts. n/a n/a
GMLAAM December 2 Baseline 17.3% 17.7% 18.1% 17.4% 18.5% n/a n/a
Viability Plan 2 17.1% 17.5% 18.0% 17.8% 18.4% 19.3% 18.8%
Change from 12/2 (0.2) pts. (0.2) pts. (0.1) pts. 0.4 pts. (0.1) pts. n/a n/a
GMAP December 2 Baseline 7.0% 7.3% 8.1% 8.5% 9.0% n/a n/a
Viability Plan 2 7.0% 7.3% 8.4% 8.8% 9.0% 9.0% 8.6%
Change from 12/2 0.0 pts. 0.0 pts. 0.3 pts. 0.3 pts. 0.0 pts. n/a n/a
|
56
GM Unit Volume Forecast
C4
GM Volume (M) GM Volume (M) 2006act 2007act 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Global Viability Plan 2 9.1 9.4 8.4 6.9 7.9 8.6 9.7 10.2 10.4
Change from 12/2 (0.1) (1.0) (0.7) (0.5) (0.3) (0.2) n/a
GMNA Viability Plan 2 4.8 4.5 3.6 2.8 3.1 3.3 3.7 3.7 3.8
Change from 12/2 0.0 (0.3) (0.3) (0.1) 0.1 0.1 n/a
GME Viability Plan 2 2.0 2.2 2.0 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.3 2.5 2.5
Change from 12/2 0.0 (0.3) (0.1) (0.2) (0.1) 0.0 n/a
GMLAAM Viability Plan 2 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5
Change from 12/2 0.0 (0.2) (0.2) (0.1) (0.2) (0.1) na
GMAP Viability Plan 2 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.6 2.6
Change from 12/2 0.0 (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) n/a
|
C5
GM Market Share & Unit Volume - North America Detail
GMNA VP2 Comparison to December 2 Submission
|
57
GM US Sales Mix and Share by Type of Sale
C6
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
GM Sales
3,866,620
2,980,688
2,305,434
2,642,270
2,886,925
3,195,329
3,245,517
3,307,751
Industry
16,472,742
13,502,519
10,500,000
12,500,000
14,300,000
16,000,000
16,400,000
16,800,000
GM Market Share
23.5%
22.1%
22.0%
21.1%
20.2%
20.0%
19.8%
19.7%
GM Retail Sales
2,858,606
2,158,134
1,673,707
1,958,509
2,151,286
2,380,325
2,499,145
2,542,905
Retail Industry
13,171,014
10,757,519
8,450,000
10,150,000
11,700,000
13,200,000
13,500,000
13,800,000
Retail Market Share
21.7%
20.1%
19.8%
19.3%
18.4%
18.0%
18.5%
18.4%
GM Retail % of GM Ttl Sales
74%
72%
73%
74%
75%
74%
77%
77%
GM Rental Sales
596,104
479,682
330,087
344,607
359,484
402,685
352,439
352,019
Rental Industry
2,019,247
1,605,000
1,100,000
1,300,000
1,450,000
1,550,000
1,600,000
1,650,000
Rental Market Share
29.5%
29.9%
30.0%
26.5%
24.8%
26.0%
22.0%
21.3%
GM Rental % of GM Ttl Sales
15%
16%
14%
13%
12%
13%
11%
11%
GM Comm'l/Gov't Sales
411,910
342,872
301,640
339,154
376,155
412,319
393,933
412,827
Comm'l/Gov't Industry
1,282,481
1,140,000
950,000
1,050,000
1,150,000
1,250,000
1,300,000
1,350,000
Comm'l/Gov't Market Share
32.1%
30.1%
31.8%
32.3%
32.7%
33.0%
30.3%
30.6%
GM Comm'l/Gov't % of GM Ttl Sales
11%
12%
13%
13%
13%
13%
12%
12%
GM Fleet Sales (Rental+Com/Gov)
1,008,014
822,554
631,727
683,761
735,639
815,004
746,372
764,846
Fleet Industry
3,301,728
2,745,000
2,050,000
2,350,000
2,600,000
2,800,000
2,900,000
3,000,000
GM Fleet Market Share
30.5%
30.0%
30.8%
29.1%
28.3%
29.1%
25.7%
25.5%
GM Fleet % of GM Ttl Sales
26%
28%
27%
26%
25%
26%
23%
23%
US VP2
Actual
|
U.S. Market Share Assumptions
Key Plan Assumptions
Fuel prices gradually increase to $4.00/gallon by 2014 driving continued growth in cars and
crossovers
Marketing spend per brand and nameplate improves to a level competitive to Toyota,
Honda and Ford due to Core Brand Strategy
Continued trend of segment share gains with new vehicle launches
Chevy, Cadillac and Buick gain share due to future product plan as well as reduced
competition from HUMMER, Saab, Saturn and Pontiac
Dealer rationalization contributes to increased profit and customer satisfaction for
remaining dealers, resulting in volume and price gains
GM planned price increases for content required to achieve regulatory compliance,
especially in the area of fuel economy, is matched by the competition
Continued improvement in key purchase funnel measures, such as awareness, opinion
and consideration for Chevy, Cadillac, GMC and Buick throughout plan window
GM will leverage scale to purchase media more efficiently than competition and continue
to lead the industry in digital and search marketing capability
C7
|
58
C8
22.1
22.0
0.5
0.7
0.1
(0.3)
(0.4)
(0.7)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2008 CY Share
Pricing/
Credit
Competitive
Market
Activity
Product
Adds/Deletes
Other
2009 CY Share
Industry Mix
Brand
Consolidation
Impact
48 nameplates
2,981k = 62k /nmplt
45 nameplates
2,305k = 51k /nmplt
Share Walk from 2008 to 2009
Gas price
moderation
drives mix shift
from Cars to
Trucks/Crossov
ers (+4 p.p.
mix)
Pricing impact
based on
elasticity
analysis.
Slightly
improved
credit
conditions
expected.
Planned
reductions
relative to
marketing
factory and
competitive
spend
|
22.0
21.1
1.6
(0.5)
(0.4)
(0.7)
(0.9)
2009 CY Share
Industry Mix
Carryover
Models /
Competitive
Impact
Gains from
Product Majors
Loss from
Product Drops
2010 CY Share
47 nameplates
2,642k = 56k /nmplt
45 nameplates
2,305k = 51k /nmplt
C9
Brand
Consolidation
Impact
Share Walk from 2009 to 2010
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
|
59
21.1
20.2
1.2
(0.4)
(0.5)
(0.1)
(1.1)
2010 CY Share
Industry Mix
Carryover
Models /
Competitive
Impact
Gains from
Product Majors
Loss from
Product Drops
2011 CY Share
39 nameplates
2,887k = 74k/nmplt
47 nameplates
2,642k = 56k /nmplt
C10
Share Walk from 2010 to 2011
Brand
Consolidation
Impact
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
|
C11
20.2
20.0
1.4
(0.6)
(0.2)
(0.3)
(0.6)
2011 CY Share
Industry Mix
Brand
Consolidation
Impact
Carryover
Models /
Competitive
Impact
Gains from
Product Majors
Loss from
Product Drops
2012 CY Share
39 nameplates
2,887k = 74k/nmplt
36 nameplates
3,195 = 89k/nmplt
Share Walk from 2011 to 2012
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
|
60
C12
20.0
19.8
1.2
(0.2)
(0.5)
(0.0)
(0.6)
2012 CY Share
Industry Mix
Brand
Consolidation
Impact
Carryover
Models /
Competitive
Impact
Gains from
Product Majors
Loss from
Product Drops
2013 CY Share
37 nameplates
3,246= 88k/nmplt
36 nameplates
3,195 = 89k/nmplt
Share Walk from 2012 to 2013
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
|
C13
19.8
19.7
1.3
(0.1)
(0.2)
(0.5)
(0.6)
2013 CY Share
Industry Mix
Brand
Consolidation
Impact
Carryover
Models /
Competitive
Impact
Gains from
Product Majors
Loss from
Product Drops
2014 CY Share
36
nameplates
3,308= 92k/nmplt
37 nameplates
3,246= 88k/nmplt
Share Walk from 2013 to 2014
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
|
61
Share Increasingly Driven By Positive Product Attributes
C14
Top Reasons For Purchase - GM Top Reasons For Purchase - GM Top Reasons For Purchase - GM Top Reasons For Purchase - GM Top Reasons For Purchase - GM Top Reasons For Purchase - GM Top Reasons For Purchase - GM
2003 MY 2004 MY 2005 MY 2006 MY 2007 MY 2008 MY
#1 Rebate / Incentive Rebate / Incentive Value for the Money Exterior Styling Exterior Styling Exterior Styling
#2 Value for the Money Value for the Money Rebate / Incentive Value for the Money Value for the Money Fuel Economy
#3 Exterior Styling Price / Monthly Payments Employee Discount Fuel Economy Fuel Economy Value for the Money
#4 Price / Monthly Payments Exterior Styling Exterior Styling Price / Monthly Payments Price / Monthly Payments Price / Monthly Payments
#5 Past Model Experience Fuel Economy Price / Monthly Payments Rebate / Incentive Dependable/ Reliable Dependable/ Reliable
|
GM US VP2 Volume/Share per Nameplate
C15
GM Market Share & Unit Volume per Nameplate
|
62
Appendix D
FUTURE PRODUCT LAUNCHES
|
63
Chevrolet VOLT
Start of production: 2010
Location of production facility: Detroit, Michigan
Powertrain with best fuel economy: 1.4L E-Flex
17-Feb-09
D2
|
64
Cadillac CTS Coupe
Start of production: 2010
Location of production facility: Lansing, Michigan
Powertrain with best fuel economy: 3.6L V6, 6-speed auto
17-Feb-09
D4
|
65
Cadillac CTS Sport Wagon
D5
|
Cadillac CTS Sport Wagon
Start of production: 2009
Location of production facility: Lansing, Michigan
Powertrain with best fuel economy: 3.6L V6, 6-speed auto
17-Feb-09
D6
|
66
Chevrolet Cruze
Start of production: 2010
Location of production facility: Lordstown, Ohio
Powertrain with best fuel economy: 1.4L Turbo, manual
17-Feb-09
D8
|
67
Chevrolet Camaro
Start of production: 2009
Location of production facility: Oshawa, Canada
Powertrain with best fuel economy: 3.6L V6, 6-speed auto
17-Feb-09
D10
|
68
Chevrolet Equinox
Start of production: 2009
Location of production facility: Ingersoll, Canada
Powertrain with best fuel economy: 2.4L L4, 6-speed auto
17-Feb-09
D12
|
69
Buick Lacrosse
Start of production: 2009
Location of production facility: Fairfax, Kansas
Powertrain with best fuel economy: 2.4L L4, 6-speed auto
17-Feb-09
D14
|
70
Cadillac SRX
Start of production: 2009
Location of production facility: Ramos Arizpe, Mexico
Powertrain with best fuel economy: 3.0L V6, 6-speed auto
17-Feb-09
D16
|
71
Appendix E
GM US BRAND AND NETWORK PLANS
|
GM U.S. Brand and Network Plans Summary
E1
Saturn, HUMMER and Saab have generated an average annual EBIT loss of $1.1 billion (E2)
GM will refocus on four core brands (Chevrolet, Cadillac, Buick and GMC) and three
corresponding channels (E3-E4)
Significant rationalization of dealer network has been accomplished to date, especially
since 2000 (E5)
Dealer network will be consolidated and strengthened to improve dealer economics and
compete more effectively for volume and share (E6-E7)
Preserving historic strength in small town and rural markets
Throughput increase for remaining dealers, contributing to higher dealer profitability and more
effective marketing of GM products
1
2
3
4
|
72
U.S. Channel Profit Overview
$ Billions
Cumulative %
of Total
Over 90% of U.S. Aggregate Contribution
Margin generated from four core brands
to be maintained
U.S. Aggregate Contribution Margin
CY2003-2007
$1.1B average annual EBIT loss for Saturn, HUMMER and Saab
E2
|
Refocused U.S. Brand Strategy around Core Brands and
Channels
E3
Focus on four core brands and three corresponding channels
Chevrolet, Buick, GMC & Cadillac core brands / Chevrolet, BPG &
Cadillac channels
Pontiac to serve as niche product
Part of "Fewer, Better" entries strategy
Concentrate advertising, capital and engineering resources
Strategic review of HUMMER and Saab globally, and Saturn
brand in concert with Saturn's Franchise Operations Team
(FOT)
|
73
Brand Positioning and Dealer Throughput
E4
Chevrolet:
Brand Positioning:
Expressive Value
High Value Appeal with High Retail Volume
Dealer Throughput:
Growing to match Toyota in large markets
Buick-Pontiac-GMC:
Brand Positioning
Buick: Sophisticated Quality, Luxury and Craftsmanship
Pontiac: Youthful & Sporty - with niche focus
GMC: Engineering Excellence with Capability and Functionally
Dealer Throughput:
Growing to match Nissan in large markets
Cadillac:
Brand Positioning:
Performance Luxury with Aspirational Appeal
Global Luxury Brand
Dealer Throughput:
Growing to match Mercedes in large markets
|
Historical Dealerships Counts (1970 - Current)
History of successful rationalization of the U.S. dealer network
Utilized private capital to consolidate dealerships, in addition to natural attritions
Phased out Oldsmobile franchises
Aligned Buick, Pontiac and GMC dealers into a single retail channel, which lowers
costs and allows for nameplate rationalization
E5
|
74
Dealer Network Rationalization Overview
Network
Auto dealerships are independently owned and capitalized
Each dealer's Sales and Service Agreement with GM is typically for a franchise of a specific brand or channel, not
the dealership (6,246 dealerships hold 13,360 individual Dealership Sales and Service Agreements)
In most states, it is illegal for a manufacturer to own a dealership for extended periods
Dealerships require significant private capital and access to borrowed funds
Auto dealers have unique franchise laws which protect individual dealers more than typical retail franchisees
Manufacturers must understand and comply with the varied motor vehicle franchise laws in all 50 states
State-by-state variations in auto franchise laws drive complexity and limit OEMs' degrees of freedom to operate
Negotiating Voluntary Dealership Terminations
Terminating Agreements require negotiated settlements, involving lawyers, accountants and other professionals
Every negotiation is unique, complex, and requires GM people with unique skills to optimize results.
Each termination involves a number of factors - the individual state laws, the dealer, the business entity, equipment,
real estate, possible union contracts, the entrepreneurs' financial state, associated finance & warranty business, etc.
No two deals are alike, large metro deals can be little cost to GM when third parties are utilized or cost GM millions
GM typically manages the process of terminations, consolidations, relocations, brand realignments and
replacements of underperforming dealers - historically 200-400 deals are completed each year
Revised Network Right Sizing
Capitalization, lines of credit for operations and inventories must be secured for targeted sites
Facility construction/renovation, permits, image and other infrastructure takes time and careful planning
Relocating or replacement dealers expect an opportunity for significant return on their investment
Obligations under state franchise laws and the Agreements drive significant costs, even in non-renewals
Other dealers in surrounding market areas must be capable and prepared to capture the sales of an exiting dealer
E6
|
Dealer Network Rationalization Plan
Consolidate and strengthen dealer network to compete more effectively
for GM volume and market share
Right-size network from 6,246 in 2008 to 4,700 by 2012 as in Dec. 2nd
submission (inclusive of reduction from Saturn, Saab and HUMMER)
Further reduction of 600 to 4,100 by 2014
Plan benchmarks key locations, facilities and throughput vs. target
competitors in major markets
Preserve historic and strategic competitive strength in small town markets
Reductions include normal attritions (minimal cost to GM)
Dealer-initiated reductions and relocations leveraging private capital
Corresponding throughput increase for remaining dealers, particularly in
major metro markets, expected to result in more profitable and stronger dealer
network
E7
|
75
Appendix F
SALARIED COMPETITIVENESS
|
Salaried Competitiveness Summary
F1
GM has made significant reductions to its U.S. salaried employee costs through
2008 (F2)
Watson Wyatt analysis shows GM salaried total cash compensation trails
transplants by approximately 6% (F3)
Watson Wyatt was not given permission by all three transplants to compare benefit
plans, but GM internal analysis shows GM to be below average in benefits and last
in active post-retirement health care and life insurance (F3)
GM severance programs are consistent with customary severance practices
employed by other major companies (F4)
The majority of GM salaried employees have no negotiated work rules (F5)
1
2
3
4
5
|
76
GM Has Made Significant Reductions to its U.S. Salaried
Employee Costs through 2008
U.S. Salaried Employment is Down 40% from
the 2000 Level
Other Actions*
No merit increases 2005, 2007, 2009
Delayed increase in 2006 (27 months)
No variable pay in 2005, 2008
Below target in 2004, 2006, 2007
Pension reductions (from 24-52%)
Elimination of Post-65 retiree health
insurance
Pre-65 Retiree Health Care capped at
2006 levels
Reduction in Post-retirement life
insurance
Significant increase in employee
contributions to healthcare - 31%
Suspension of 401k Match, Tuition
Assistance
F2
|
Salaried Compensation Competitiveness
Watson Wyatt analysis of salaried compensation competitiveness compared with
Nissan, Toyota, and Honda (Transplant Companies) for U.S. operations confirms GM
salaried employees are paid competitively
Base salary position within 0.2% of transplant average
Total cash compensation trailing transplants by approximately 6%
Watson Wyatt not given permission by all three transplants to compare benefits
plans
GM's internal analysis of Watson Wyatt benefit survey conducted to determine competitiveness
GM's internal analysis shows, on a new-hire to new-hire basis, GM to be below average in
total benefits
GM ranks last in active post-retirement healthcare and active life insurance
Transplants do not participate in major U.S. executive compensation surveys conducted
by Towers Perrin, Hewitt, and Pearl Meyer
Transplant U.S. operations largely limited to manufacturing and sales operations without
global executive functional or headquarters leadership positions in the U.S.
GM participates in these major executive compensation surveys and engages Mercer to
consolidate results to determine the competitive position of GM executive compensation relative
to other large multinational companies
Results of the most recent Mercer (2007) analyses show that GM executive total cash is at
median of the market in 2007 after bonuses were paid and in 2008 no bonuses were paid
Total compensation is well below median because long-term incentives have not paid out
over the past several years
F3
|
77
Severance Rationalization
GM has two types of severance programs/policies for U.S. salaried employees
Plans are consistent with severance practices employed by other major companies
Amount and duration of severance payments and benefits benchmarked using 2008 Right Management Global Severance Practices
Survey (456 U.S. companies) and 2008/2009 Lee Hecht Harrison Severance Practices Benchmark study (958 U.S. companies)
F4
Non-Executive Salaried Employees Executive Employees
GM Severance Program (GMSP)
Involuntary Program
Provides employees 1/2 month severance pay for each full year of service up to 6 months maximum
Requires full Release of Claims
Employees with minimum 3 years service who do not execute release agreement receive 1 month severance
Benefits continuation provided for duration of severance payments
Outplacement service provided GM Executive Severance Program (GMSP)
Involuntary Program
Provides employees 1/2 month severance pay for each full year of service up to 12 months maximum
Requires full Release of Claims
Employees with minimum 3 years service who do not execute release agreement receive 1 month severance
Benefits continuation provided for duration of monthly severance payments up to 6 months maximum
Outplacement service provided
Mutual Separation Policy (MSP)
Voluntary Policy
Provides employees 1/2 month severance pay for each full year of service up to 4 months maximum
Requires full Release of Claims
Benefits continuation provided for duration of severance payments
Outplacement service provided Executive Mutual Separation Policy (MSP)
Voluntary Policy
Provides employees 1/2 month severance pay for each full year of service up to 10 months maximum
Requires full Release of Claims
Benefits continuation provided for duration of monthly severance payments up to 6 months maximum
Outplacement service provided
|
Work Rule Modifications for Salaried Employees
Loan Agreement requires work rules for U.S. employees of GM and its Subsidiaries to be competitive with the
work rules for employees of Nissan, Toyota, or American Honda (Transplants) in the U.S.
Will be seeking guidance from the U.S. Department of the Treasury regarding how this requirement applies
in the context of salaried employees
The majority of GM salaried employees are not represented by a collective bargaining agent and there are
no negotiated work rules
Instead, GM retains the right, among others to:
Assign job responsibilities and work locations
Use contract vs. regular active employees to perform work
Establish a competitive compensation structure and pay ranges
Evaluate performance to management identified objectives
Compensate employees based on performance
Address inappropriate employee behavior via management actions up to and including termination
Promote and laterally move employees into positions based on performance, skill competencies and leadership behaviors
General Motors has a code of conduct for employees, called "Winning with Integrity: Our Values and Guidelines for
Employee Conduct" (copy will be made available upon request)
GM also has a Human Resources Policy Manual (copy will be made available upon request)
Addresses such subjects as Workplace Environment, Staffing, Selection, etc.
Each functional area has guidelines for employees to follow in performing their jobs and includes:
Steps to follow in orienting new employees
How to file expense reports, etc.
GM will seek guidance from the U.S. Department of the Treasury if these policies and procedures are considered work rules within
the intended scope of the Loan Agreement
GM has not participated in annual benchmarking surveys with the transplant companies focusing on general
salaried policies; however, we periodically inquire of other companies, including the transplants, about specific
programs, such as telecommuting
F5
|
75
Appendix G
VEBA / UNSECURED PUBLIC DEBT
|
VEBA / Unsecured Public Debt Summary
GM engaged with the UAW and the unofficial committee of the bondholders to
pursue the restructuring of GM's balance sheet in accordance with the Federal
Loan
Intensive due diligence in parallel with discussions on proposed term sheets
ongoing
Signed letters from the UAW and the committee of the bondholders providing
status included in the following pages
1
2
3
G1
|
79
Appendix G
VEBA Settlement Modification and Bond Exchange
I. VEBA Settlement Modification: GM initiated discussions with the UAW in the fall of 2008
regarding restructuring GMs payment obligations under the VEBA Settlement Agreement. These
discussions focused mainly on re-timing approximately $10 billion in payments otherwise due in 2009
and 2010, including accelerating the date upon which responsibility for retiree medical coverage is
transferred from GM to the VEBA, and the possibility of contributing GM equity in place of a
portion of the VEBA payment obligations.
Since these discussions pre-dated the December 31, 2008 federal loan agreement, negotiations were
not directed at a conversion of 50% or more of the VEBA payment obligations to GM equity. The
federal loan agreement, however, requires that at least one-half of the value of GMs future
payments to the VEBA be in the form of GM stock and that the total value of GMs payments cannot
exceed the amount otherwise required under the VEBA Settlement Agreement. Consequently, after
obtaining the federal loan, GM engaged the UAW and counsel for the class of GM retirees who are
parties to the VEBA Settlement Agreement to pursue modification to the Settlement Agreement in
accordance with the federal loan requirements.
The parties have engaged in extensive due diligence. GM has granted the union, class counsel and
their respective attorneys and advisors access to highly confidential GM business and financial
information, including the various elements of the Restructuring Plan for Long-Term Viability. The
parties have also engaged in regular discussions, either directly or through their advisors, aimed
at restructuring GMs future obligations to the VEBA on terms that meet GMs need to repair its
capital structure, satisfy the federal loan requirements and are in the best interest of the
retirees in light of GMs current financial distress. This due diligence and the discussions were
undertaken contemporaneous with discussions for a debt-equity conversion between GM and advisors to
the unofficial committee of holders of unsecured GM bonds. The UAW, class counsel and the bond
holders understand that their respective agreements would be conditioned upon executing binding
agreements with the other parties and securing all required legal and regulatory approvals.
The UAW and class counsel have concluded that a restructuring of GMs operations, balance sheet and
the Settlement Agreement are necessary components of GMs restructuring. The UAW, Class and GM
also agreed to work towards a March 31, 2009 execution of an agreement to modify VEBA Settlement
Agreement. An agreement to restructure the VEBA payments has not yet been achieved but the parties
are working toward a final agreement that meets the needs of GM, the federal government, the UAW
and the retiree class members.
As evidence of their good faith and commitment, the parties have executed the attached Term Sheet
that commits them to addressing the issues that must be resolved to reach an agreement to modify
the VEBA Settlement Agreement and to reaching a final VEBA Modifications agreement in the time
frame required by the loan agreement.
80
II. Bond Conversion
As a result of the public disclosures and commentary regarding a potential debt-for-equity
conversion that were made in connection with the December 2, 2008 Congressional Submission and the
US Treasury Loan Agreement dated December 31, 2008, an unofficial committee of GM bondholders
formed in anticipation of engaging with GM with respect to any potential restructuring of the
Companys public unsecured debt. As is customary in such situations, the committee has retained
its own financial and legal advisors to represent it in such discussions. GM and its advisors
commenced discussions with the committees advisors in January and since that time, have efforts
have been focused on advancing discussions on two primary fronts. The first has been to provide
due diligence access to assist the advisors to the committee in analyzing the Restructuring Plan
for Long-Term Viability. The second has been to advance discussions with the committees advisors
regarding the specific terms of a bond exchange. GM and its advisors have held regular discussions
and exchanged term sheets with the committees advisors as to terms and structure of a bond
exchange that both meets GMs requirements for the Restructuring Plan for Long-Term Viability while
at the same time gaining the support of the committee and GM bondholders more broadly. The status
of these discussions is described in the attached letter from the committees advisors. More
generally, GM and its advisors are working aggressively on several fronts to ensure that the
objective of launching a bond exchange offer by March 31, 2009 can be met.
81
VEBA Modifications Term Sheet
The
UAW, GM and Class Counsel for the certified class in the case of
UAW, et. al. v. General
Motors Corp., Civ. Act No. 2:07-cv-14074 (E.D. Mich.) (the Parties) have discussed GMs current
financial situation and GMs need to repair its capital structure, including restructuring its
obligations under the VEBA Settlement Agreement entered in the captioned case. In this regard, the
Parties have discussed the fact that since execution of the Settlement Agreement on February 21,
2008 and approval of the Settlement Agreement by the Court on
July 31, 2008, GMs financial
situation has significantly deteriorated and to avoid bankruptcy GM petitioned the U.S. government
for emergency financial assistance which resulted in the entry of the Loan and Security Agreement
dated December 31, 2008 (the Loan Agreement) between GM and the United States Department of
Treasury.
The Parties acknowledge that the Loan Agreement affords GM a limited and conditional
opportunity to implement a restructuring plan to restore its long-term viability, which would
substantially improve GMs ability to make future payments to the New VEBA. The Parties understand
that among the many conditions contained in the Loan Agreement is the requirement to modify the
Settlement Agreement such that not less than one-half the value of each future payment made by GM
to the New VEBA shall be made in the form of GM stock and the total value of such payments shall
not exceed the amount of any such payments that were required for such period. Any such
modification of the VEBA payments also must be part of a larger plan of reorganization that, when
taken together, manifests a clear and realistic opportunity for GMs long-term viability.
This Term Sheet is entered into
between the Parties and is submitted pursuant to the terms of
the Loan Agreement. Given GMs financial situation, the prospect of bankruptcy and the need to meet
the requirements of the Loan Agreement, the Parties agree as follows.
|
1. |
|
GM has provided the UAW, Class Counsel and their legal and financial advisors access to GM
financial information so they can complete a comprehensive review of GMs financial situation.
However, given the timeframe, complexities associated with the proposed restructuring of GMs
payment obligations, and the necessary interplay with the bond exchange additional due
diligence is required before a full legal agreement that modifies the VEBA Settlement Agreement
(the Settlement Modification Agreement) can be finalized. |
|
|
2. |
|
Based on the due diligence, the UAW and Class Counsel have concluded, each in their own
capacity, that a restructuring of GMs operations and balance sheet is required to avoid
the more adverse consequences in the event of a GM bankruptcy. The UAW and Class Counsel
recognize that a restructuring of the Settlement Agreement is required under the current
Loan Agreement. |
|
|
3. |
|
The Parties are committed to reaching an agreement in accordance with the requirements
of the Loan Agreement, and have been working diligently toward that end. Nonetheless, the
need for significant due diligence and further discussions among the Parties regarding the
financing of the VEBA is made manifest not only by the complexities described in Paragraph
1 above but also by the fact that the VEBA is the source for providing the |
82
|
|
|
retiree health
care benefits for over one-half million retirees, their spouses, and covered family
members. In conducting these discussions, Class Counsel and the UAW must proceed in a
manner that fully considers how changes in the financing of the VEBA may affect the level
and availability of retiree health care benefits to the participants in the new plan. To
that end, Class Counsel and the UAW stand ready to work with GM
in developing proposals that will deal with the concern about GMs debt structure in a way
that minimizes the long-term risk to the new plan. |
|
|
4. |
|
The Parties understand that time is of the essence given GMs financial requirements and
requirements of the Loan Agreement. The Parties agree to fully cooperate in drafting and
executing the Settlement Modification Agreement by March 31, 2009, and working together in
good faith to secure all necessary legal and regulatory approvals. |
|
|
5. |
|
Any final Settlement Modification Agreement will be subject to the approval of the
Presidents Designee; court approval of the Settlement Modification Agreement in form and
substance acceptable to each of the Parties; consummation of the bond exchange offer on
terms satisfactory to the Parties; and GMs reasonable satisfaction that it will obtain
equivalent accounting treatment to that applicable to the Settlement Agreement. |
|
|
|
|
|
Dated: 2/17/09
|
|
Dated: 2/17/09
|
|
Dated: 2/17/09 |
83
STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL
February 15, 2009
General Motors Corporation
300 Renaissance Center
Detroit, Michigan 48265-3000
Attention: G. Richard Wagoner, Jr., Chairman and CEO
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Re:
|
|
Bond Exchange required by Loan Agreement between GM and the U.S.
Department of the Treasury |
Mr. Wagoner,
As advisors to the unofficial committee of unsecured bondholders of General Motors Corporation
(GM), we write to respond to the most recent term sheet, dated February 12, 2009, we received
from GM for the proposed exchange of unsecured bonds of GM (the Bond Exchange).
We recognize the substantial efforts made by GM thus far to develop a restructuring plan. It
is evident to us that GM and its advisors have dedicated considerable resources and creativity to
this process and have endeavored to engage with all interested stakeholders.
We are also aware of the grave importance of this restructuring for the future of GM and its
employees, as well as for the American auto industry and its network of related businesses.
Accordingly, we have undertaken to advise the committee with due consideration for the substantial
sacrifices that are being asked of all parties.
As advisors to the committee, we would be prepared to recommend that the committee approve and
support the Bond Exchange contemplated by the term sheet, subject to an appropriate conclusion of
the due diligence process (particularly with respect to a final GM restructuring plan) and to
revisions to the term sheet, including those described or otherwise referenced in Exhibit A.
However, in light of our confidentiality obligations to GM, we have been unable to share details of
the proposed term sheet or of GMs proposed restructuring plan with the members of the committee
(although we are working with GM to permit disclosure in the next few days). Accordingly, we do not
have authority to bind any member of the committee or any other bondholder to support the exchange
contemplated by the term sheet.
Our desire is to finalize a revised term sheet that includes the revisions described in
Exhibit A as quickly as possible as the support of the committee will be critical to the success of
any Bond Exchange. We look forward to continuing our dialogue with you about these matters.
84
Sincerely,
|
|
|
Houlihan Lokey Howard & Zukin Capital,
|
|
Paul, Weiss, Rifkind, Wharton & Garrison |
Inc., as financial advisor to the unofficial
|
|
LLP, as counsel to the unofficial |
committee |
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85
VEBA / Unsecured Public Debt
In light of the ongoing confidential negotiations regarding the terms of a
potential bond exchange and VEBA modification, and consistent with GM's
obligations under U.S. federal securities laws, Exhibit A to the foregoing
letter and the term sheet referenced therein are not being furnished in
writing as part of this submission. GM believes that a premature public
disclosure could have the effect of prejudicing negotiations and/or
confusing or potentially misleading public investors about the terms of a
potential bond exchange. GM will continue, on a confidential basis, to keep
the U.S. Treasury and its financial advisors informed regarding the status
and content of these negotiations, including the substance of Exhibit A and
the term sheet referred to in the foregoing letter.
G2
|
86
Appendix H
RESTRUCTURING PLAN MILESTONES
|
GM's Restructuring Plan Operating Milestones (as of 2/17/09)
CY 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2010 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
US Brands 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 5 5 5 5
US Name-plates 48 43 44 43 44 46 44 43 39 39 36 37 36
US Dealers* 6246 NA NA NA 5750 NA NA NA 5300 5000 4700 4400 4100
US Models > 30 MPG 20 NA NA NA 23 NA NA NA 20 18 23 31 33
Flex-Fuel Models (%) 17% NA NA NA 27% NA NA NA 47% 54% 61% 65% 65%
Hybrid Models 6 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 15 14 18 26
MPG Cars**
31.2 NA NA NA 31.0 NA NA NA 32.5 33.7 36.8 38.6 38.6
MPG Trucks**
23.2 NA NA NA 24.0 NA NA NA 23.6 23.8 25.4 26.8 27.6
* Approximate, due to negotiations expected with independent dealer entrepreneurs
** Car values include both domestic and import car fleets. Car and truck MPG values for subsequent model year. All values include full usage of all credit
flexibilities under the CAFE program
H1
|
87
GM's Restructuring Plan Operating Milestones (as of
2/17/09)
CY 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2010 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Global Salaried
Employees 72,875 72,450 67,250 64,850 63,300 63,300 63,300 63,300 63,300 63,300 63,300 63,300 63,300
US Salaried Employees 29,650 29,350 26,250 26,250 26,250
26,250
26,250 26,250 26,250 26,250 26,250 26,250 26,250
US Hourly Employees 62,403 60,900 54,550 54,650 44,500 45,500 46,950 46,900 46,800 45,150 46,300 45,700 46,400
US Mfg Facilities 47 47 46 45 44 44 43 42 37 35 33 32 32
US Ass'y Capacity 2.8M 2.8M 2.7M 2.7M 2.5M 2.5M 2.5M 2.4M 2.4M 2.4M 2.3M 2.0M 2.0M
US Flex Plants 60%
(9 of 15) 60%
(9 of 15) 60%
(9 of 15) 60%
(9 of 15) 57%
(8 of 14) 57%
(8 of 14) 64%
(9 of 14) 69%
(9 of 13) 77%
(10 of 13) 77%
(10 of 13) 83%
(10 of 12) 82%
(9 of 11) 82%
(9 of 11)
H2
|
88
Appendix I
2009-2014 FINANCIAL PROJECTIONS
|
2009-2014 Financial Projections Summary
I1
Tough industry conditions contribute to significant negative OCF of $(14.0)B in
2009 before improving to near breakeven by 2011 and to over $6.0B in 2012-14 (I2)
In the Baseline scenario, projecting U.S. TARP peak requirements of $22.5B in 2011
with pay-down by 2017 absent U.S. pension funding requirements (I3-I6)
Total funding requirements of $28.5B in 2011 including incremental funding for
foreign operations (I5)
Foreign operations are working to obtain funding locally
Downside and Upside sensitivities to GM liquidity and funding also included (I7-I8)
1
2
3
4
|
89
Baseline Global Cash Flow
2009 - 2014, Annual
I2
|
Baseline Global Cash Flow
2009, Monthly
I3
|
90
Baseline Global Cash Flow
2010, Monthly
I4
|
Baseline Global Cash Flow
2011-2012, Quarterly
I5
|
91
Baseline Global Cash Flow
2013-2014, Quarterly
I6
|
Long-Term Cash Flow
2009 - 2014, Downside Sensitivity
I7
|
92
Long-Term Cash Flow
2009 - 2014, Upside Sensitivity
I8
|
93
Appendix J
ENTERPRISE VALUE AND NPV
|
Enterprise Value and NPV Summary
J1
Estimated Enterprise Value for GM between $59 - $70 Billion
Net Obligations of Between $54 - $57 Billion
Resulting NPV of $5-$14 Billion with Midpoint of $9 Billion
Opportunities for Improvement of NPV Through Balance Sheet Restructuring
Actions in Canada and Germany as well as Alternatives to Address US Pension
Liability
Upside Sensitivity Scenario Shows Potential NPV Value of $30-$41 Billion
Downside Sensitivity Scenario would result in negative NPV
1
2
3
4
5
6
|
94
Appendix J
VALUATION OF THE ENTERPRISE AND NET PRESENT VALUE
Executive Summary
Based on the Baseline Scenario financial projections, and solely for purposes of the GM
Restructuring Plan, Evercore Group LLC (Evercore) estimated that the Enterprise Value falls
within a range of approximately $59 billion to $70 billion, with a midpoint of $65 billion.
Evercore estimated that the Net Obligations fall within a range of approximately $54 billion to $57
billion, with a midpoint of $55 billion, implying an estimated NPV range of approximately $5
billion to $14 billion, with a midpoint of $9 billion. This NPV range does not reflect the
incremental value that may be generated through balance sheet restructuring actions in Canada and
Germany, which are anticipated to have incremental positive effects on the NPV analysis. In
addition, the U.S. Hourly and Salaried Pension plans are reflected as a $8-9 billion liability in
the NPV analysis, and GM is currently reviewing various options to mitigate this impact.
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NPV Analysis |
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(Amounts in US$ billions) |
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Core Enterprise Value |
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57 |
|
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68 |
|
Value of Unconsolidated Subsidiaries & Other Assets |
|
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12 |
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12 |
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PV of Restructuring Costs (including Delphi) |
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(8 |
) |
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(8 |
) |
Minority Interest |
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(2 |
) |
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(2 |
) |
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|
Enterprise Value Range |
|
|
59 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
70 |
|
Net Debt |
|
|
(25 |
) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
(25 |
) |
PV of Pension Contributions |
|
|
(18 |
) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
(21 |
) |
PV of VEBA Obligations |
|
|
(11 |
) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
(11 |
) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Net Obligations |
|
|
(54 |
) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
(57 |
) |
NPV |
|
|
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
14 |
|
In the Upside Sensitivity Scenario, in which global industry volumes return to historical trendline
levels (U.S. industry growing to 18 million units by 2014 and the Global Industry volumes growing
to 90 million units by 2014), the NPV analysis yields a range of $30 billion to $41 billion. In the
Downside Sensitivity Scenario, where the U.S. industry grows from 9.5 million units in 2009 to 15.3
million by 2014 and the Global Industry volumes grow from 52.3 million units in 2009 to 74.8
million units in 2014, the NPV analysis yields a negative value.
The following assumptions and valuation methodology are an integral part of the references to the
NPV analysis incorporated in the Restructuring Plan Submission (Submission). The summary set
forth below does not purport to be a complete
description of the analyses performed by Evercore, nor does the NPV analysis included herein
purport to reflect the full range of valuation methodologies available.
95
Considerations
The estimated NPV range as of the Valuation Date reflects the analysis performed by Evercore on the
basis of information available to Evercore as of February 16, 2009. Although subsequent
developments may affect Evercores conclusions, Evercore has no obligation to update, revise or
reaffirm these estimates.
Although Evercore conducted a review and analysis of GMs business, operating assets and
liabilities, and business plan, Evercore assumed and relied on the accuracy and completeness,
without any independent verification, of the projections and other information prepared by GM
management and provided to Evercore for the purposes of its analysis, as well as publicly available
information. Evercore assumed that any such projections were reasonably prepared in good faith and
on a basis reflecting GMs most accurate currently available estimates and judgments as to the
future operating and financial performance of GM. Evercores estimated NPV range assumes GM will
achieve the projections in all material respects. Evercore assumes no responsibility for and
expresses no view as to any such projections, estimates or judgments, or the assumptions on which
they were based, including but not limited to the projections with regard to (i) revenue growth and
improvements in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) margins,
(ii) growth in earnings and cash flow, (iii) the amounts of future pension contributions, (iv) the
value of unconsolidated subsidiaries, (v) the value of expected asset sales and (vi) the amounts of
other restructuring costs, including those related to Delphi. If GMs business performs at levels
below those set forth in the projections, such performance may have a materially negative impact on
NPV.
In estimating the NPV of GM, Evercore (i) reviewed certain historical financial information of GM
for recent years and interim periods, (ii) reviewed certain internal financial and operating data
of GM, including the projections as described in this Submission, which data were prepared and
provided to Evercore by GM management, (iii) discussed GMs operations and future prospects with
the GM senior management team, (iv) reviewed publicly available financial data for, and considered
the market value of, public companies that Evercore deemed generally comparable to GM, as described
below, (v) considered certain economic and industry information relevant to GM, and (vi) conducted
such other studies, analyses, inquiries and investigations as it deemed appropriate.
The estimates of NPV prepared by Evercore were developed solely for purposes of the formulation of
the GM Restructuring Plan. Such estimates do not constitute (i) a recommendation to any investor,
current or future, as to what the trading value of GM securities would be at any time, or (ii) an
opinion as to fairness from a financial perspective to any person of any consideration pursuant to
any transaction.
Furthermore, Evercores estimates of NPV reflect the application of standard valuation
techniques and do not purport to reflect or constitute appraisals, liquidation values or estimates
of the actual market value that may be realized through the sale of any securities or through any
subsequent contemplated transaction, which may be
96
significantly different from the amounts set
forth herein. The value of an operating business is subject to numerous uncertainties and
contingencies which are difficult to predict and which fluctuate with changes in factors affecting
the financial condition and prospects of such a business. As a result, the estimated NPV range for
GM set forth herein is not necessarily indicative of actual outcomes, which may be significantly
more or less favorable. Neither GM, Evercore, nor any other person assumes responsibility for any
differences between the NPV range and any such actual outcomes. Actual market prices of GM
securities will depend upon, among other things, the operating performance of GM, prevailing
interest rates, conditions in the financial markets, developments in GMs industry and economic
conditions generally, and other factors which generally influence the prices of securities.
Valuation Methodology
The discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis is a forward-looking enterprise valuation
methodology that estimates the value of an asset or business by calculating the present value of
expected future cash flows to be generated by that asset or business. Under this methodology,
projected unlevered after-tax future cash flows of the business for a certain projection period are
discounted by the businesss weighted average cost of capital, or discount rate. The applicable
discount rate reflects the weighted average rate of return that would be required by debt and
equity investors to invest in the business based on its long-term capital structure. The
enterprise value of the business is determined by adding to such discounted cash flows an estimate
for the value of the firm beyond the projection period, known as the terminal value. The terminal
value is derived by applying a multiple to projected EBITDA in the final year of the projection
period, discounted back to the applicable valuation date by the applicable discount rate. Although
formulaic methods are used to derive the key estimates for the DCF methodology, their application
and interpretation involve complex considerations and judgments concerning potential variances in
the projected financial and operating characteristics of a company, which in turn affect its cost
of capital and terminal multiple.
To estimate the discount rate applicable to GM, Evercore used the weighted average cost of equity
and the after-tax cost of debt for GM, weighted by a targeted long-term
debt-to-total-capitalization ratio, based on the average ratio of the Peer Group described in the
following paragraph. Evercore calculated the cost of equity based on the Capital Asset Pricing
Model, which assumes that the required equity return is a function of the risk-free cost of capital
and the correlation of a publicly traded stocks performance to the return on the broader market.
To estimate the cost of debt, Evercore estimated what would be GMs blended cost of debt based on
normalized capital markets conditions and the financing costs for comparable companies with
leverage similar to GMs long-term target capital structure.
Evercore selected the following publicly traded companies (Peer Group) on the basis of general
comparability to GM based on the general similarity in their lines of businesses,
business risks, growth prospects, maturity of businesses, location, market presence and size and
scale of operations: Daimler AG, Bayerische Motoren Werke AG, Volkswagen AG, PSA Peugeot Citroen,
Fiat S.p.A., Toyota Motor Corporation, Honda Motor Co., Ltd., Nissan Motor Co.,
97
Ltd., Hyundai Motor
Company, and Renault S.A. The selection of appropriate comparable companies is often difficult, a
matter of judgment, and subject to limitations due to sample size and the availability of
meaningful market-based information.
In determining the terminal multiple, Evercore used the EBITDA multiple range consistent with a
normalized EBITDA multiple range for the Peer Group. Evercore calculated GMs NPV using a range of
discount rates (from 9.5% to 11.5%) and a range of terminal value EBITDA multiples (from 4.25x to
4.75x).
In applying the above methodology, Evercore used the projections prepared by GM management for the
period beginning January 1, 2009 and ending December 31, 2014 to derive unlevered after-tax free
cash flows. Free cash flow includes sources and uses of cash not reflected in the income
statement, such as changes in working capital and capital expenditures. In tax-affecting the
unlevered future cash flows, Evercore used a regional-weighted corporate income tax rate of 35
percent based on an estimate by GM management and separately adjusted for the value of present and
future deferred tax assets. To arrive at a range of Core Enterprise Values for GM, Evercore
discounted these cash flows, along with a range of terminal values derived by applying the terminal
value EBITDA multiples described above, back to December 31, 2008 using the range of discount rates
described above and adjusting for the estimated present value of deferred tax assets. To arrive at
a range of Enterprise Values for GM, Evercore adjusted Core Enterprise Value for (i) the estimated
value of GMs investments in unconsolidated subsidiaries (including the value of GMAC as estimated
by GM management as of December 31, 2008) and, the present value of expected asset sales by GM and
the asset carve-out from GMAC calculated by Evercore based on GM management projections and using
the range of discount rates described above, (ii) the present value of estimated cash outflows from
GM to Delphi and other estimated cash restructuring costs calculated by Evercore based on GM
management projections and using the range of discount rates described above, and (iii) the
estimated value of GMs minority interests (as estimated by GM management as of December 31, 2008).
Evercore assumed that GMs existing deferred tax assets would be used to offset income
resulting from the cancellation of debt in the GM Restructuring Plan and that GM would receive
Congressional legislation releasing it from the limitation set forth in §382 of the Internal
Revenue Code of 1986, as amended, which otherwise would effectively eliminate the ability of GM
to utilize the deferred tax assets to offset future tax liabilities. We understand that
assuming the signing of the Economic Stimulus Package on February 17, 2009 by the President, GM
would be able to utilize the deferred tax assets to offset these tax liabilities. In
addition, GM management expects GM to generate additional deferred tax assets in 2009, which
Evercore assumed would be used to reduce cash taxes payable in the subsequent years. To value
this benefit, Evercore discounted the annual tax benefit at the midpoint cost of equity that
was applied in the discount rate range used in the DCF analysis of the
overall company. Evercore has not conducted, and does not assume responsibility for
conducting, the tax diligence required to confirm the underlying tax assumptions used in the
valuation.
98
The estimates of Core Enterprise Value not include (i) GMs total debt less cash in excess of
the amount required for working capital, (ii) the present value of GMs estimated payments
related to the UAW VEBA obligation discounted at a 9 percent rate, or (iii) the present value
of expected cash contributions by GM to U.S. and international pension funds calculated using
the range of discount rates described above. Each of the above was calculated separately by
Evercore, based on projections and estimates provided by GM management and included in GMs Net
Obligations.
99
Appendix K
SUPPLY BASE DEVELOPMENT
|
GM's Current Supplier Management Approach Summary
GM has been moving new and current programs to healthier suppliers and will
accelerate this process significantly in 2009-2011
GM projects a 30 percent reduction in the number of suppliers to GMNA (K2)
GM's strategy is to continue improving supply base health by partnering with
suppliers who are cost-effective and have invested in innovative products and
technologies (K3)
This strategy allows suppliers to achieve economies of scale and to restore their own
health
GM is in the best position as the supply base's customer to determine who the right
partners are to build a healthy future with
GM expects the North American supply base to continue to deliver annual
material performance over the viability plan period
This performance will continue to be driven by annual performance in long term
contracts, increased supplier capacity utilization and productivity, and continued
technical cost reduction opportunities
In earlier years of the viability plan, GM expects some of this performance to be
offset by the cost to GM of addressing the impact of the industry downturn
K1
|
100
Compression Enables GM to Build and Manage a Competitive
Supply Base
Annual Buy vs. Supplier Count
(North America)
Annual Buy
($ Billions)
Supplier
Count
(line)
K2
|
GM Commodity Team Case Study: Economy of Scale Improves
Supply Base Health
K3
|
101
Appendix L
BANKRUPTCY ANALYSIS
|
Bankruptcy Analysis Summary
L1
The company plans to significantly improve its operations and reduce its liabilities via
an out-of-court process
The incremental portion of the company's liabilities that can be practically addressed
in a bankruptcy versus an out-of-court process is limited relative to the likely negative
impact on the revenue of the enterprise and the additional funding required in conjunction
with such a bankruptcy filing
To the extent the company enters bankruptcy, there can be no assurances that the
company will be able to exit quickly, if at all
Unprecedented amounts of debtor-in-possession (DIP) financing would be needed and
would not be available through traditional funding sources today; would require U.S.
Government sponsored / funded DIP
Many of the liabilities that could be impaired in a protracted bankruptcy could either
shift to the U.S. government or critically impact the broader economy, thereby
mitigating the benefit in today's environment
The out-of-court process offers the best balance of rightsizing the company's
liabilities while preserving the value of the enterprise
1
2
3
4
5
|
102
Appendix L
BANKRUPTCY ANALYSIS
Structural Alternatives to Proposed Restructuring Plan
The Plan presented in this report is predicated upon restructuring the operations and
liability/capital structure of the Company without submitting to a U.S. bankruptcy process (out of
court process).
An out of court process will achieve the key financial objectives of the plan without the trauma
and systemic risk inherent in a bankruptcy case. An out of court process demonstrates the
Companys ability to re-pay the U.S. Department of Treasury loans and to structure a viable
business with a positive net present value, credibility with consumers and a competitive operating
and capital structure, while minimizing the risk that further financial reorganization will be
required.
A fundamental element of the Companys restructuring plan is to avoid further revenue losses that
arise from bankruptcy. The out of court process is critical to that objective. Although the
Company recognizes that the out of court process does not afford the Company the option to use
bankruptcy powers to unilaterally impair claims, reject executory contracts and the like, the
Company believes that those potential benefits are more than offset by the actual and potential
negative consequences of bankruptcy. Specifically, the incremental portion of the Companys
liabilities that can be practically addressed in a bankruptcy is quite limited, compared to the
level of support and additional funding that would be necessary to mitigate revenue losses and
other consequences.
Consumer confidence is essential to the Companys future success. For most consumers, the purchase
of a vehicle represents their second largest expenditure (after housing). Consumers view resale
value and the assured availability of warranty coverage and long-term parts and service as critical
inputs to their purchase decision. It is the judgment of the Company that a bankruptcy filing
would substantially, if not completely, erode consumers confidence in GMs ability to deliver on
those requirements. The consumer, with a choice of a comparable product backed by a manufacturer
operating outside bankruptcy, is substantially less likely to opt for the bankruptcy tainted
product. The resulting deep and precipitous slide in the Companys revenue would endanger not only
the Companys viability, but that of countless of its dealers and suppliers, which are in turn
relied upon by other manufacturers and the public. In addition, a GM bankruptcy would threaten
GMACs ability to fund itself in the capital markets, impairing GMACs capacity to provide
wholesale and retail financing essential to support the viability of GM.
The systemic risk to the automotive industry and the overall U.S. economy are considerable, just as
the bankruptcy of Lehman had a ripple effect throughout the financial industry. Indeed, the risks
relating to a bankruptcy in the automotive sector may be more extensive than Lehman presented in
light of the wider range of constituencies, profound employment effects and the potential impact on
consumer sentiment. Based upon exhaustive analysis, these risks outweigh the benefits of a
bankruptcy based approach to the Companys restructuring.
103
It should also be noted, as will be shown below, that the financing requirements of the Company
significantly exceed those in an out of court process, irrespective of the bankruptcy route chosen.
Additionally, many of the liabilities that could be impaired in a traditional bankruptcy process
could have the effect of shifting those liabilities to the U.S. Government.
To assess the relative merits of an out of court process, the Company has compared the projected
results of its viability plan against projected outcomes in three different bankruptcy scenarios.
The analysis included in this Appendix addressing each scenario necessarily makes a number of
simplifying assumptions, including that any bankruptcy proceeds in an orderly fashion along a
prescribed timeline. In truth and in practice, the process involves many risks, virtually all of
which involve delays in timing. To the extent that the Company enters bankruptcy, even via one of
the two accelerated strategies, there is an exceptionally high risk that the timeframes extend
beyond those presently assumed, rendering the projected DIP funding requirements understated and
optimistic. In a traditional Chapter 11 process designed to address all of the Companys liability
structure, given the complexity and scope of General Motors global business operations, there is a
substantial risk that emergence from bankruptcy will prove impossible and a liquidation pursuant to
Chapter 7 of the Bankruptcy Code will result. Finally, given the Companys financial position and
the state of the credit markets, any DIP financing would need to be provided by the U.S.
Government. Otherwise, General Motors would not be able to operate in Chapter 11 and would very
likely be compelled to liquidate.
The three scenarios considered were as follows:
1. Pre-solicited or Pre-packaged Chapter 11 Under this scenario, and as
contemplated in the Companys planned Bond/VEBA exchange offer, tendering bondholders would
be required to vote affirmatively to accept a Chapter 11 Plan of Reorganization. If
possible (because the Plan of Reorganization received the requisite votes) and necessary
(because the out of court process failed), the exchange plan would be implemented in
bankruptcy, binding 100% of the bondholders to accept consideration equivalent to that
contemplated in the out of court exchange. However, this scenario requires an agreement in
advance regarding the treatment of VEBA liabilities acceptable to bondholders, as well as a
commitment for government financing. No other creditor would be impaired. Existing
shareholders would be almost entirely diluted.
This scenario is assumed to require approximately 60-65 days to achieve confirmation of the
plan and exit from Chapter 11. It will cause a quite severe near-term negative revenue
impact during the bankruptcy proceeding, and a less severe but still serious long-term
negative revenue impact after exiting from Chapter 11.
2. Pre-negotiated Cram-Down Plan Under this option, which is more aggressive than
a consensual pre-packaged Chapter 11 approach discussed in Scenario 1 above, the Company
would seek a larger conversion of debt to equity. This strategy could take many forms,
including: (A) complete conversion of the bonds to equity; (B) reduction in obligations
from impairing additional classes of claims (including potentially litigation liabilities,
dealer claims and contract rejection damages); and (C) greater to perhaps complete
equitization of the VEBA obligations. This scenario is assumed to require a minimum of 90
days for its least aggressive variant, up to as long as six months or more for more
aggressive variants, such as converting a portion of other liabilities to equity. If the
Company were to pursue a larger or complete conversion of the VEBA to
104
equity, the assumption is that this would be a vigorously contested, endangering resolution
with the UAW and potentially forcing the Company into an extended traditional Chapter 11
case or free-fall bankruptcy as described in Scenario 3.
For analytical purposes, GM has assumed only the benefits in (A) above, or conversion of the
bonds to equity, completed in the shortest (90 day) timeframe possible. The negative revenue
impact during this option is expected to be even more severe, with greater permanent
effects, compared to the pre-solicited process described in Scenario 1. In addition, the
cram down process results in an incremental $4 billion debt reduction, or complete
conversion of all U.S. unsecured debt to equity, but also involves significantly higher
levels of DIP financing required which, in turn, produces a significantly negative NPV.
There would be significantly less negative impact than in a traditional Chapter 11, which
has broader implications for the industry as a whole. However, this scenario includes
elements likely to elicit opposition, which increases the timing risks and the risk that
Scenario 2 might evolve into the substantially less favorable Scenario 3.
3. Traditional Chapter 11 Case Under this scenario, the objective would be to
accomplish a more comprehensive restructuring of the liability portion of the balance sheet,
along with substantial asset dispositions, using all of the tools traditionally available to
debtors to restructure through a court supervised process.
This process could be expected to require 18-24 months, with an estimated 24 months used for
analytical purposes in this appendix. Financially, while the traditional bankruptcy process
allows for greater liability reduction potential, incremental funding requirements surge
close to a $100 billion or more, reflecting catastrophic revenue reduction impact as well as
wholesale (i.e., dealer) financing requirements and supplier support. The revenue impact
during this type of bankruptcy would be very severe, with a substantially delayed recovery
time and significant potential for permanent, significant damage. Indeed, there is
considerable doubt whether the Company would survive this process.
To assess the risks and benefits of each strategy, the Company must weigh the potential additional
cleansing or liability reducing benefits of each strategy against the revenue erosion impact.
Key simplifying assumptions in the analysis are as follows: (1) that global revenue impact would be
proportional to that experienced in the U.S.; (2) that DIP financing, which the Company believes
would not be available today in sufficient size through traditional means, would be
provided by the U.S. Treasury; and (3) that the Company under a bankruptcy scenario would request
substantial and longer term U.S. Government backstop of warranty coverage, and other customer
protections, to address consumer concerns, particularly during the bankruptcy court administration
period (which would be helpful, but would not address resale value, competitive threats and other
lingering customer concerns).
The remainder of this Appendix discusses the analysis in detail. Table A below summarizes the
Companys conclusions as to the potential results of each process. Exhibit 3 to this appendix
includes a detailed discussion of the operating scenarios utilized for the analysis presented in
Table A.
105
Table A: Total Financing Requirement
($ in billions)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Out of |
|
|
Pre-Solicited |
|
|
Cram Down |
|
|
Traditional |
|
|
|
Court Process |
|
|
Process |
|
|
Process |
|
|
Process |
|
Liability Reduction Potential |
|
|
47 |
|
|
|
47 |
|
|
|
47 |
|
|
|
>100 |
|
Liabilities Reduced |
|
|
28 |
|
|
|
33 |
|
|
|
37 |
|
|
|
41-78 |
|
NPV Equity Value (Midpoint) |
|
|
9 |
|
|
|
6 |
|
|
|
0-(16) |
|
|
|
(25)-(28) |
|
Government Support* |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
U.S. Financing Requirement |
|
|
23 |
|
|
|
25 |
|
|
|
29-37 |
|
|
|
42-53 |
|
Wholesale Support |
|
|
0 |
|
|
|
2 |
|
|
|
7 |
|
|
|
14 |
|
Supplier Support |
|
|
4 |
|
|
|
8 |
|
|
|
9-10 |
|
|
|
13-17 |
|
Delphi |
|
|
0 |
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total U.S. Government |
|
|
27 |
|
|
|
36 |
|
|
|
46-55 |
|
|
|
71-86 |
|
Non-U.S.
Financing Requirement |
|
|
6 |
|
|
|
9 |
|
|
|
11-15 |
|
|
|
15-17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total Financing Requirement |
|
|
33 |
|
|
|
45 |
|
|
|
57-70 |
|
|
|
86-103 |
|
|
|
|
* |
|
Government support defined as peak borrowing requirements from 2009-2011 |
Qualitative FactorsThe key assumption in each of the first three columns of Table A is
that the objective for the shortest possible time spent in Chapter 11 limits debt reduction
strategies to the $47 billion in U.S. unsecured debt and VEBA. While the 60-day (pre-solicited)
process does generate a positive NPV, it is below that achieved through the out-of-court process.
The incremental debt reduction involves a 100% participation in the proposed bond exchange, rather
than the minimum of 80% proposed in the out-of-court process, reducing debt by an additional $5
billion, in effect eliminating the hold out risks in the out-of-court process. Government
financing requirements could increase (on both temporary and, to a lesser degree, long-term bases)
by $12 billion.
The Companys view of likely unit volume, revenue and contribution margin losseswhile in
bankruptcy, and after exiting the processare embedded in the NPVs presented in Table A above. As
noted, such revenue lossesin every caseoffset the incremental liabilities extinguished by any
form of bankruptcy. The Company analyzed the amount of sales volume loss required to offset the
positive impact on NPV of reducing incremental liabilities. As noted in Table B below, NPV
neutral (or breakeven) unit volume lossesespecially for 60-day (pre-solicited) and 90-day (cram
down) strategiesdo not have to be significant for the NPVs produced by these strategies to be
less than the out-of-court result. The percentages in the table reflect the near-term impact on
volumes of a bankruptcy followed by a second percentage that reflects the long-term volume
impairment in the scenario. The proportion of the near-term loss percentage to the long-term
percentage mirrors the scenarios modeled in Table A.
106
Table B: Breakeven NPV Unit Volume Loss
(% US Volume Loss during Bankruptcy - % Long Term Volume Loss)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Out of |
|
|
Pre-Solicited |
|
|
Cram Down |
|
|
Process |
|
|
|
Court Process |
|
|
Process |
|
|
Process(B) |
|
|
Traditional(A) |
|
Breakeven NPV U.S.
Unit Volume Loss * |
|
|
N/A |
|
|
|
4% - 3% |
|
|
|
9% - 5% |
|
|
|
13% - 10% |
|
|
|
* |
|
While the percentages in Table B reflect only the U.S. volume declines, the NPV breakeven
scenarios include volume loss outside the U.S. at some fraction of the loss of U.S. volumes |
The rationale for projected revenue losses associated with bankruptcy proceedings is presented in
Exhibit 3. Cram Down Process (B) refers to the stronger consumer reaction assumptions examined
under Scenario 2. Traditional Process (A) refers to the Daewoo Experience assumptions examined
under Scenario 3. A breakeven volume estimate is not presented for the most complex and lengthy
bankruptcy scenario because the large number and significant variability of the necessary
assumptions, as well as the impractically large amount of external financing required, renders the
result of such a calculation essentially meaningless.
GM Balance Sheet and Capital Structure
Any analysis of the potential impact of a bankruptcy process must necessarily begin with an
understanding of GMs balance sheet (see Exhibit 1 for the condensed, unaudited balance sheet of
General Motors Corporation as of September 30, 2008). As of September 30, total liabilities
amounted to approximately $170 billion, assets totaled $110 billion, and stockholders deficit
amounted to ($60) billion.
The $170 billion liability structure in the balance sheet reflects four significant forms of
obligations, as summarized in Exhibit 2. First, liabilities to trade creditors critical to remain
in business, reserves for warranty coverage (a liability that benefits consumers over time and that
directly impacts the companys brand and consumer reputation), accrued allowances for future
expected sales incentives for products that have been sold by GM to dealers and are held in dealer
inventories, and deposits from rental car companies relating to contracts with GM to repurchase the
vehicles (this liability has a matching asset of roughly equal value). The total amount of such
liabilities at September 30, 2008 amounted to $51.8 billion.
The second category involves liabilities related to post-retirement healthcare benefits and pension
liabilities or obligations that accrue for the benefit of current or future retirees. The total of
such liabilities at September 30, 2008 amounted to $46.4 billion.
The third category includes debt obligations of the Company, the total of which amounted to $45.2
billion (including secured and all overseas obligations). Fourth, and finally, are all other
liabilities, including taxes, derivative obligations, plant closing reserves, deferred income,
payrolls and many other smaller liabilities. Such liabilities generally are tied to the Companys
production or sales cycles, as well as allowances for contingent liabilities. The total of such
liabilities amounted to $26.0 billion.
In evaluating the effectiveness of a bankruptcy process in cleansing GMs balance sheet, an
assessment must be made relative to the impact of bankruptcy on each of these four categories, as
well as the degree of complexity. In the first category, any impairment would directly impact
suppliers, customers and dealers, fundamentally impacting the future franchise value of the
107
company. The final category contains both obligations that are tied to the business cycle as well
as contingent liabilities that might be discharged in a bankruptcy. Given the nature of all such
liabilities, it must be assumed that they could only be addressed in a traditional bankruptcy
process, as there would be substantial procedural and claims administration requirements. Further,
many of these liabilities could only be discharged at substantial risk to the future franchise
value of the Company.
As such, any rapid or accelerated process would naturally be targeted at U.S. unsecured bond debt
(excluding secured debt and international debt of foreign subsidiaries) as well as post-retirement
obligations related to the VEBA. Any action to reject labor contracts, reject retiree benefits, or
to modify and/or terminate pension plans would also very likely necessitate a traditional and
protracted bankruptcy process.
Debt Reduction AlternativesUsing the Companys September 30, 2008 liability structure as
the starting point, Table C rolls forward and aggregates total expected liabilities and future cash
claims that would be considered in a bankruptcy filing:
Table C: Total Liability Summary
($ in billions)
|
|
|
|
|
September 30, 2008 Total Liabilities |
|
|
169 |
|
New Liabilities Incurred in Q4 2008
(includes $4 billion U.S. Treasury Secured debt) |
|
|
7 |
|
|
|
|
|
December 31, 2008 Total Liabilities* |
|
|
176 |
|
Roll-Forward of 12/31/08 Liabilities
(Including Incremental U.S. Treasury Debt and Other Adjustments) |
|
|
12 |
|
|
|
|
|
Current Liabilities* |
|
|
188 |
|
With $188 billion of liabilities as the starting point for potential debt reduction through
bankruptcy, Table D below summarizes such liabilities within categories that can be addressed under
the three different forms of bankruptcy noted earlier:
108
Table D: Liability Categories
($ in billions)
|
|
|
|
|
Operating/Trade Related Liabilities |
|
|
72 |
|
Non-UAW VEBA-Related OPEB and Pensions (Global) |
|
|
39 |
|
|
|
|
|
Subtotal Operating & Retiree Related |
|
|
111 |
|
U.S. Secured Debt |
|
|
21 |
(1) |
Other Debt Including Foreign Subsidiary Debt |
|
|
9 |
|
NPV of UAW VEBA Obligation |
|
|
20 |
(2) |
Unsecured U.S. Debt |
|
|
27 |
|
|
|
|
|
Subtotal Debt Obligations |
|
|
77 |
|
|
|
|
|
Total |
|
|
188 |
|
|
|
|
(1) |
|
Includes U.S. Government secured ($15B) and secured revolver and term loan ($6B) |
|
(2) |
|
NPV of future obligations, exclusive of transferred VEBA assets; discounted at 9% |
Reflecting the above, both out-of-court restructuring and the two accelerated bankruptcy strategies
necessarily limit their impact to $47 billion of the liabilities, including $20 billion in
VEBA-related obligations and $27 billion in unsecured U.S. debt. In order to address other major
elements of the capital structure, a traditional Chapter 11 process would be required.
Revenue and Operating ImpactsThere are three critical factors to consider relative to
revenue and other operating risks associated with Chapter 11. The first and most important
involves revenue and contribution margin risk, including the potential for lost sales and increased
discounts to sell vehicles. This impact has three principal elements: (1) lost sales and
contribution margin during the bankruptcy period; (2) the length of the time, post-exit, until
sales return to steady-state levels; and (3) long-term reputational damage and resultant permanent
loss of market share, revenue and contribution margin. Considerable research has been done on this
subject and there are several smaller examples from the global automobile industry to consider (see
Exhibit 3). Any adverse revenue and contribution margin impacts from bankruptcy drive greater DIP
as well as permanent funding requirements.
The second key impact in a GM bankruptcy relates to GMAC and its wholesale credit lines to the
Companys dealers. A GM bankruptcy may constitute an Event of Default in one or more of GMACs
independent credit facilities. GMAC might also experience indirect effects of a GM bankruptcy
which triggered provisions in existing facilities or resulting in the inability to renew existing
facilities. Therefore, absent some form of additional support for GMAC, General Motors believes
that GMAC would cease wholesale dealer financing for all but the most creditworthy retailers. This
would necessarily shift substantially the entire burden of wholesale financing to the Company, in
turn increasing the size of any DIP funding facility.
The third key impact would involve suppliers. In an out-of-court process, and in the two
accelerated bankruptcy strategies, claims of trade creditors are not impaired and no further
provision has been made for incremental DIP capacity. In a traditional bankruptcy, with the
significant expected volume declines increasing the likelihood of supplier economic distress, the
Company believes that incremental DIP, and potentially permanent additional funding, would be
required.
109
Exhibit 1
GENERAL MOTORS CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES
Condensed Consolidated Balance Sheet
September 30, 2008
($ In Millions)
(Unaudited)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
September 30, |
|
Description |
|
2008 |
|
Current Assets |
|
|
|
|
Cash and cash equivalents |
|
|
15,831 |
|
Marketable securities |
|
|
67 |
|
|
|
|
|
Total Cash and marketable securities |
|
|
15,898 |
|
Accounts and notes receivable, net |
|
|
9,461 |
|
Inventories |
|
|
16,914 |
|
Equipment on operating leases, net |
|
|
4,312 |
|
Other current assets and deferred income taxes |
|
|
3,511 |
|
|
|
|
|
Total current assets |
|
|
50,096 |
|
FINANCING
AND INSURANCE OPERATIONS ASSETS |
|
|
|
|
Cash and cash equivalents |
|
|
176 |
|
Investment in securities |
|
|
273 |
|
Equipment on operating leases, net |
|
|
2,892 |
|
Equity in net assets of GMAC LLC |
|
|
1,949 |
|
Other assets |
|
|
2,034 |
|
|
|
|
|
Total Financing and Insurance Operations assets |
|
|
7,324 |
|
Non-Current Assets |
|
|
|
|
Equity in and advances to nonconsolidated affiliates |
|
|
2,351 |
|
Property, net |
|
|
42,156 |
|
Goodwill and intangible assets, net |
|
|
949 |
|
Deferred income taxes |
|
|
907 |
|
Prepaid pension |
|
|
3,602 |
|
Other assets |
|
|
3,040 |
|
|
|
|
|
Total non-current assets |
|
|
53,005 |
|
TOTAL ASSETS |
|
|
110,425 |
|
|
|
|
|
Current Liabilities |
|
|
|
|
Accounts payable (principally trade) |
|
|
27,839 |
|
Short term borrowings and current portion of long-term debt |
|
|
7,208 |
|
Accrued expenses |
|
|
33,959 |
|
|
|
|
|
Total current liabilities |
|
|
69,006 |
|
FINANCING AND INSURANCE OPERATIONS LIABILITIES |
|
|
|
|
Debt |
|
|
1,890 |
|
Other liabilities and deferred income taxes |
|
|
768 |
|
|
|
|
|
Total Financing and Insurance Operations liabilities |
|
|
2,658 |
|
Non-Current Liabilities |
|
|
|
|
Long-term debt |
|
|
36,057 |
|
Postretirement benefits other than pensions |
|
|
33,714 |
|
Pensions |
|
|
11,500 |
|
Other liabilities and deferred income taxes |
|
|
16,484 |
|
|
|
|
|
Total non-current liabilities |
|
|
97,755 |
|
TOTAL LIABILITIES |
|
|
169,419 |
|
Minority Interests |
|
|
945 |
|
Preferred stock, no par value, 6,000,000 shares authorized, no shares issued and outstanding |
|
|
0 |
|
Common stock, $1 2/3 par value (2,000,000,000 shares authorized, 800,937,541 and
610,462,606 shares issued and outstanding, respectively) |
|
|
1,017 |
|
Capital surplus (principally additional paid-in capital) |
|
|
15,732 |
|
Accumulated deficit |
|
|
(61,014 |
) |
Accumulated other comprehensive loss |
|
|
(15,674 |
) |
|
|
|
|
TOTAL STOCKHOLDERS DEFICIT |
|
|
(59,939 |
) |
|
|
|
|
TOTAL LIABILITIES, MINORITY INTERESTS AND STOCKHOLDERS DEFICIT |
|
|
110,425 |
|
|
|
|
|
110
Exhibit 2
Summarized Balance Sheet Elements
($ in billions)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sept 30, 2008 |
|
Accounts Payable Auto |
|
|
27.8 |
|
Warranty and Policy Obligations |
|
|
9.0 |
|
Sales Allowance Accruals |
|
|
8.5 |
|
Customer Deposits |
|
|
6.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
Sub-Total Category 1 |
|
|
51.8 |
|
Post-Retirement Benefits, Other than Pensions* |
|
|
34.2 |
|
Pensions* |
|
|
12.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
Sub-Total Category 2 |
|
|
46.4 |
|
Short-Term Borrowings |
|
|
7.2 |
|
Finance and Insurance Debt Secured |
|
|
1.9 |
|
Long-Term Debt |
|
|
36.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
Sub-Total Category 3 |
|
|
45.2 |
|
Category 4: All Other Liabilities |
|
|
26.0 |
|
(Taxes, Payrolls, Derivative Obligations, Deferred Income, Plant Closing Reserves, etc.) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
TOTAL |
|
|
169.4 |
|
|
|
|
* |
|
Includes current portion of liability |
111
80% of people who intend to purchase a vehicle within six months said they would not
acquire from a company that filed for bankruptcy. (CNW Research 7/08)
32% of new vehicle intenders who decided not to buy GM cited possible bankruptcy
discussions. Bankruptcy is #1 Reason for Avoidance for GM. (CNW Purchase Path
11/08)
21% of respondents indicated they were "very likely" to acquire from the Big 3; figure
drops to 10% if the Big 3 company was to go bankrupt, an overall reduction in purchase
intent of 50%. (MORPace Research 11/21/08)
33% would not consider a Detroit-brand vehicle if the company were in bankruptcy
court. (USA Today/Gallup Poll 12/16/08)
39% of GM considerers in a national panel (representative of the general U.S.
population) said they would drop their consideration of GM if GM files for bankruptcy.
(TNS Online Express Omnibus Survey 02/10/09)
Recent Research is Consistent: Bankruptcy Considerably
Reduces Consumer Consideration
L2
|
112
Over One-Third of GM New Vehicle Sales Come from Consumers Trading Competitive Makes or
Buying New for the First Time... Such Sales are at Risk in a Bankruptcy
Important Points:
In short bankruptcy, the 36% of GM new vehicle sales coming from
conquest or "new" vehicle buyers is at risk
In long bankruptcy, some portion of GM owners returning to market
are also at risk (1/3 of GM owners during this 2 year window)
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
Jan
-
08
Feb
-
08
Mar
-
08
Apr
-
08
May
-
08
Jun
-
08
Jul
-
08
Aug
-
08
Sep
-
08
Oct
-
08
Nov
-
08
Dec
-
08
GM Source of Sales
GM
Non
-
GM
1st Time Buyer or No Trade
-
In
Source: GMIA/PIN through Dec. 2008
Important Points:
In short bankruptcy, the 36% of GM new vehicle
sales coming from conquest or "new" vehicle
buyers is at risk
In long bankruptcy, some portion of GM owners
returning to market are also at risk (1/3 of GM
owners during this 2 year window)
L3
|
In Germany, more than two-thirds of consumers considering buying Opel
before would no longer do so if GM declares Chapter 11 insolvency in the
U.S.; more than half of potential Chevy buyers would withdraw with bankruptcy
(Source: GM Online Attitudes Survey, November 2008)
In China, 51% of consumers would no longer consider purchasing American
cars if American Detroit 3 announces bankruptcy, while 37% would still do, and
12% are not sure (Source: Sina and SinoTrust survey of 2020 individuals, Nov 27 - December
5, 2008)
MG Rover's market share, UK, dropped from 2.8% in March 2005 to 0.4% in
April and then fell further to 0.2% in both May and June following its
bankruptcy
Recent Research Indicates GM New Vehicle Sales Outside
the United States are also at Risk in any Bankruptcy
L4
|
113
Daewoo Motor Sales in Korea Permanently Dropped over
40% Following its Restructuring
....and Daewoo had an all-
new product line- up
which competed in more
segments than ever
before
L5
|
GM Bankruptcy: Estimated Sales Impact
60-Day Bankruptcy
35 % loss; initial sales decline
10% loss; sales loss rate goes from 35% to 10% after 60 days
5% loss; sales are 5% below pre-bankruptcy levels 4 months after exiting bankruptcy and do not recover
90-Day Bankruptcy
A: "Daewoo experience" consumer reaction ("Daewoo experience" = consumer reaction at a level similar to what Daewoo
realized)
50 % loss; initial sales decline
20% loss; sales loss rate goes from 50% to 20% 90 days after exiting bankruptcy
10% loss; sales are 10% below pre-bankruptcy levels 1 year after exiting bankruptcy and do not recover
B: "Stronger" consumer reaction
50 % loss; initial sales decline
Increased incentives required
40% loss; sales loss rate goes from 50% to 40% 90 days after exiting bankruptcy
20% loss; sales are 20% below pre-bankruptcy levels 2 years after exiting bankruptcy and do not recover
2-Year Bankruptcy
A: "Daewoo experience" consumer reaction
50 % loss; initial sales decline that is maintained throughout bankruptcy
40% loss; sales are 40% below pre-bankruptcy levels 6 months after exiting bankruptcy and do not recover
B: "Stronger" consumer reaction
80 % loss; initial sales decline that is maintained throughout bankruptcy
70% loss; sales are 70% below pre-bankruptcy levels 6 months after exiting bankruptcy and do not recover
L6
|
114
US and Canada
Month 1: assume 35% sales loss / 65% retention to base case forecast due to loss of consumer and dealer
confidence and negative media blitz. Positive message of a "60 day bankruptcy" mitigates potential 50% loss.
Month 2: assumes 20% sales loss / 80% retention to base forecast as the media, GM and the government work in
concert to dispel concerns and demonstrate that GM is going to exit bankruptcy at 60 days
Month 3 - 6: assumes 10% sales loss / 90% retention as the promised actions are delivered, but some concerns
persist among the "GM fence sitters"
Ongoing after 6 months: assumes 5% sales loss / 95% retention as GM rebuilds brand damage
Rest of World (RoW)
Assumes that the US and Canada problems become global "brand" concerns
RoW impact is significant but milder as their markets are not impacted directly and a quick resolution provides
confidence that their markets "survived" the bad news in the US and Canada
After year 1 the RoW markets move on as the crisis proved itself to be contained to the US and Canada but some
residual negative brand image persists
July
August
September
Oct-Dec
2010
2011
2012 - 2014
US and Canada
35%
20%
10%
10%
5%
5%
5%
NA Other
30%
10%
5%
5%
2%
2%
2%
Europe
30%
10%
5%
5%
2%
2%
2%
LAAM
30%
10%
5%
5%
2%
2%
2%
AP Outside of China
30%
10%
5%
5%
2%
2%
1%
China
25%
10%
5%
5%
2%
2%
1%
Loss Rates
Last 6 months of 2009
Annual
60-Day Bankruptcy
L7
|
US and Canada
This scenario represents GM's sales impact estimate given "Daewoo experience" level of consumer reaction in a 90-
day bankruptcy
Months 1 to 3: assume 50% sales loss/50% retention to base case forecast due to loss of consumer and dealer
confidence and negative media blitz
End of 90 Days: assume bankruptcy resolved and resuming normal operations
After 12 months: sales loss goes from 50% to 10% as GM rebuilds brand damage while still combating general
lingering bankruptcy concerns
RoW
Assumes that the US and Canada problems become global "brand" concerns
RoW impact is significant but milder as their markets are not impacted directly and a quick resolution provides
confidence that their markets "survived" the bad news in the US and Canada
90-Day Bankruptcy: "Daewoo Experience" Consumer Reaction
(A)
July
August
September
Oct-Dec
2010
2011
2012 - 2014
US and Canada
50%
50%
50%
40%
20%
10%
10%
NA Other
30%
30%
30%
20%
10%
5%
5%
Europe
30%
30%
30%
20%
10%
5%
5%
LAAM
30%
30%
30%
20%
10%
5%
5%
AP outside of China
30%
30%
30%
20%
10%
2%
2%
China
25%
25%
25%
15%
5%
2%
2%
Last 6 months of 2009
Annual
Loss Rates
L8
|
115
US and Canada
This scenario represents GM's sales impact estimate given "stronger" consumer reaction and a 90-day
bankruptcy
Month 1 to 3: assume 50% sales loss/50% retention to base case forecast due to loss of consumer and dealer
confidence and negative media blitz
Additional incentives required
End of 90 Days: assume bankruptcy resolved, resuming normal operations
2010 to 2013: sales loss goes from 50% to 20% as GM rebuilds brand damage while still combating general
lingering bankruptcy concerns
RoW
Assumes that the US and Canada problems become global "brand" concerns
RoW impact is significant but milder as their markets are not impacted directly and a quick resolution provides
confidence that their markets "survived" the bad news in the US and Canada
90-Day Bankruptcy: "Stronger" Consumer Reaction (B)
July
August
September
Oct-Dec
2010
2011
2012 - 2014
US and Canada
50%
50%
50%
45%
40%
30%
20%
NA Other
30%
30%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
Europe
30%
30%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
LAAM
30%
30%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
AP outside of China
30%
30%
30%
25%
20%
15%
5%
China
25%
25%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
Loss Rates
Last 6 months of 2009
Annual
L9
|
US and Canada
This scenario represents GM's sales impact estimate given "Daewoo experience" level of consumer reaction and a
2-year bankruptcy
First 12 months: assume 50% sales loss/50% retention to base case forecast due to loss of consumer and
dealer confidence and continual negative media
After emerging from bankruptcy : sales loss assumes a slight improvement from 50% to 40% loss reflecting
non-recoverable brand damage and the lingering impacts of bankruptcy
RoW
Assumes that the US and Canada problems become global "brand" concerns
RoW impact is significant but milder as their markets are not impacted directly; a protracted resolution provides
long term impacts of 20% sales loss (less expected in AP), reflecting consumer concerns of buying from a
troubled global manufacturer
2-Year Bankruptcy: "Daewoo Experience" Consumer Reaction
(A)
July
August
September
Oct-Dec
2010
2011
2012 - 2014
US and Canada
50%
50%
50%
50%
50%
50%
40%
NA Other
30%
30%
30%
30%
20%
20%
10%
Europe
30%
30%
30%
30%
20%
20%
10%
LAAM
30%
30%
30%
30%
20%
20%
10%
AP outside of China
30%
30%
30%
30%
20%
20%
5%
China
25%
25%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
Loss Rates
Last 6 months of 2009
Annual
L10
|
116
US and Canada
This scenario represents GM's sales impact estimate given "stronger" consumer reaction and a 2-year bankruptcy
First 12 months: assume 80% sales loss/80% retention to base case forecast due to loss of consumer and dealer
confidence and continual negative media
After emerging from bankruptcy: sales loss assumes a slight improvement from 80% to 70% loss reflecting non-
recoverable brand damage and the lingering impacts of bankruptcy
RoW
Assumes that the US and Canada problems become global "brand" concerns
RoW impact is significant but milder as their markets are not impacted directly; a protracted resolution provides long
term impacts of 20% sales loss (less expected in AP), reflecting consumer concerns of buying from a troubled global
manufacturer
2-Year Bankruptcy: "Stronger" Consumer Reaction (B)
July
August
September
Oct-Dec
2010
2011
2012 - 2014
US and Canada
80%
80%
80%
80%
80%
80%
70%
NA Other
30%
30%
30%
30%
25%
25%
20%
Europe
30%
30%
30%
30%
25%
25%
20%
LAAM
30%
30%
30%
30%
25%
25%
20%
AP outside of China
30%
30%
30%
30%
25%
25%
10%
China
25%
25%
25%
20%
20%
15%
10%
Loss Rates
Last 6 months of 2009
Annual
L11
|
117