Dating app company Match (NASDAQ: MTCH) reported Q4 CY2025 results beating Wall Street’s revenue expectations, with sales up 2.1% year on year to $878 million. The company expects next quarter’s revenue to be around $855 million, close to analysts’ estimates. Its GAAP profit of $0.83 per share was 17.3% above analysts’ consensus estimates.
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Match Group (MTCH) Q4 CY2025 Highlights:
- Revenue: $878 million vs analyst estimates of $871.6 million (2.1% year-on-year growth, 0.7% beat)
- EPS (GAAP): $0.83 vs analyst estimates of $0.71 (17.3% beat)
- Adjusted EBITDA: $370 million vs analyst estimates of $352.1 million (42.1% margin, 5.1% beat)
- Revenue Guidance for Q1 CY2026 is $855 million at the midpoint, roughly in line with what analysts were expecting
- EBITDA guidance for Q1 CY2026 is $317.5 million at the midpoint, above analyst estimates of $299.4 million
- Operating Margin: 32.4%, up from 26% in the same quarter last year
- Free Cash Flow Margin: 35.1%, up from 33.6% in the previous quarter
- Payers: 13.84 million, down 768,000 year on year
- Market Capitalization: $7.45 billion
"We are one year into our three-phase transformation, and our focus on user outcomes is driving meaningful progress across the portfolio," said CEO Spencer Rascoff.
Company Overview
Originally started as a dial-up service before widespread internet adoption, Match (NASDAQ: MTCH) was an early innovator in online dating and today has a portfolio of apps including Tinder, Hinge, Archer, and OkCupid.
Revenue Growth
A company’s long-term sales performance can indicate its overall quality. Any business can put up a good quarter or two, but many enduring ones grow for years. Unfortunately, Match Group’s 3% annualized revenue growth over the last three years was sluggish. This wasn’t a great result compared to the rest of the consumer internet sector, but there are still things to like about Match Group.
This quarter, Match Group reported modest year-on-year revenue growth of 2.1% but beat Wall Street’s estimates by 0.7%. Company management is currently guiding for a 2.9% year-on-year increase in sales next quarter.
Looking further ahead, sell-side analysts expect revenue to grow 2.9% over the next 12 months, similar to its three-year rate. This projection doesn't excite us and indicates its newer products and services will not lead to better top-line performance yet. At least the company is tracking well in other measures of financial health.
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Payers
User Growth
As a subscription-based app, Match Group generates revenue growth by expanding both its subscriber base and the amount each subscriber spends over time.
Match Group struggled with new customer acquisition over the last two years as its payers have declined by 4.7% annually to 13.84 million in the latest quarter. This performance isn't ideal because internet usage is secular, meaning there are typically unaddressed market opportunities. If Match Group wants to accelerate growth, it likely needs to enhance the appeal of its current offerings or innovate with new products. 
In Q4, Match Group’s payers once again decreased by 768,000, a 5.3% drop since last year. The quarterly print isn’t too different from its two-year result, suggesting its new initiatives aren’t accelerating user growth just yet.
Revenue Per User
Average revenue per user (ARPU) is a critical metric to track because it measures how much the average user spends. ARPU is also a key indicator of how valuable its users are (and can be over time).
Match Group’s ARPU growth has been strong over the last two years, averaging 6.7%. Although its payers shrank during this time, the company’s ability to successfully increase monetization demonstrates its platform’s value for existing users. 
This quarter, Match Group’s ARPU clocked in at $20.72. It grew by 7.4% year on year, faster than its payers.
Key Takeaways from Match Group’s Q4 Results
It was great to see Match Group’s EBITDA guidance for next quarter top analysts’ expectations. We were also glad its EBITDA outperformed Wall Street’s estimates. On the other hand, its full-year revenue guidance missed and its number of users declined. Overall, this was a weaker quarter. The stock traded up 6.7% to $30.92 immediately after reporting.
So do we think Match Group is an attractive buy at the current price? When making that decision, it’s important to consider its valuation, business qualities, as well as what has happened in the latest quarter. We cover that in our actionable full research report which you can read here (it’s free).
