Don't Count on a Comeback for Snap Stock

Camera company Snap Inc. (SNAP) has been struggling this year. The stock has declined 78.2% in price year-to-date to close the last trading session at $10.25. It is trading 82% below its 52-week high of $57.14, which it hit on November 15, 2021.

Although the company beat the consensus EPS estimate in the third quarter, its revenue for the quarter came 0.9% below analyst estimates. It was also the first time since its listing in 2017 that the company has reported a single-digit rise in revenues.

Its daily active users rose 19% year-over-year, and its global daily active users (DAUs) came in at 363 million compared to the expected 358.20 million. However, its average revenue per user (ARPU) declined 11% to $3.11.

Although SNAP reported a much better-than-expected adjusted EPS, its net loss rose 400% year-over-year to $360 million, partly due to a $155 million restricting charge, including severance and related costs. SNAP announced in August that it would lay off 20% of its workforce and scrap several projects, such as its Pixy photo-taking drone, Snap Minis third-party apps, and Snap Games.

The company also said that it was in the “process of winding down” its Zenly map product and Voisey music feature. In its letter to investors, SNAP said, “Our revenue growth continued to decelerate in Q3 and continues to be impacted by a number of factors we have noted throughout the past year, including platform policy changes, macroeconomic headwinds, and increased competition.”

“We are finding that our advertisement partners across many industries are decreasing their marketing budgets, especially in the face of operating environment headwinds, inflation-driven cost pressures, and rising costs of capital,” the company added.

For the second consecutive period, SNAP did not provide any specific guidance. The company said, “Forward-looking revenue visibility remains incredibly challenging, and this is compounded by the fact that revenue in Q4 is typically disproportionately generated in the back half of the quarter, which further reduces our visibility.”

It expects its revenue growth to keep decelerating in the fourth quarter as it “has historically been relatively more dependent on brand-oriented advertising revenue.”

Here’s what could influence SNAP’s performance in the upcoming months:

Weak Financials

SNAP’s operating loss widened 140.7% year-over-year to $435.24 million for the third quarter ended September 30, 2022. The company’s adjusted EBITDA declined 58.3% year-over-year to $72.64 million. Its non-GAAP net income decreased 50.8% year-over-year to $132.06 million. In addition, its non-GAAP EPS declined 52.9% year-over-year to $0.08.

Mixed Analyst Estimates

SNAP’s EPS for fiscal 2022 is expected to decline 72.1% year-over-year to $0.14, while its EPS for fiscal 2023 is expected to increase 158.5% year-over-year to $0.36. Its revenue for fiscal 2022 and 2023 is expected to increase 12% and 10.2% year-over-year to $4.61 billion and $5.09 billion, respectively. Its EPS is expected to decline 15.6% per annum over the next five years.

Weak Profitability

SNAP’s trailing-12-month net income margin is negative compared to the 4.79% industry average. Likewise, its trailing-12-month EBIT margin is negative compared to the 9.13% industry average. Furthermore, the stock’s 2.32% trailing-12-month Capex/S is 39.4% lower than the industry average of 3.84%.

Stretched Valuation

In terms of forward non-GAAP P/E, SNAP’s 73.55x is 407.2% higher than the 14.50x industry average. Likewise, its 3.41x forward EV/S is 79.5% higher than the 1.90x industry average. And the stock’s 6.2x forward P/B is 224.7% higher than the 1.91x industry average.

POWR Ratings Reflect Bleak Prospects

SNAP has an overall D rating, equating to a Sell in our POWR Ratings system. The POWR Ratings are calculated by considering 118 distinct factors, with each factor weighted to an optimal degree.

Our proprietary rating system also evaluates each stock based on eight distinct categories. SNAP has a D grade for Quality, consistent with its lower-than-industry profitability.

SNAP is trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages of $10.65 and $21.03, indicating a downtrend, justifying its D grade for Momentum.

SNAP is ranked #56 out of 63 stocks in the F-rated Internet industry. Click here to access SNAP’s Growth, Value, Stability, and Sentiment ratings.

Bottom Line

SNAP did not provide guidance for the current quarter as it fears its revenue may take a hit as the economic slowdown and recession have led to many advertisers pausing or reducing spending on ad campaigns. In addition, platform policy changes, macroeconomic pressures, and rising competition are expected to keep the stock under pressure in the upcoming months.

Given its weak financials, stretched valuation, and weak profitability, it could be wise to avoid the stock now.

How Does Snap Inc. (SNAP) Stack Up Against Its Peers?

SNAP has an overall POWR Rating of D, equating to a Sell rating. Therefore, one might want to consider investing in other Internet stocks with an A (Strong Buy) or B (Buy) rating, such as trivago N.V. (TRVG), Travelzoo (TZOO), and Yelp Inc. (YELP).

SNAP shares were trading at $10.13 per share on Wednesday morning, down $0.12 (-1.17%). Year-to-date, SNAP has declined -78.46%, versus a -18.57% rise in the benchmark S&P 500 index during the same period.

Since he was in grade school, Dipanjan was interested in the stock market. This led to him obtaining a master’s degree in Finance and Accounting. Currently, as an investment analyst and financial journalist, Dipanjan has a strong interest in reading and analyzing emerging trends in financial markets.

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