Dun & Bradstreet Global Supply Chain Continuity Index Dips in Wake of Geopolitical Conflicts and Climate-Induced Disruptions in Key Shipping Routes

Global Business Optimism Insights report finds higher optimism for Q1 2024 amid push for growth

Dun & Bradstreet (NYSE:DNB), a leading global provider of business decisioning data and analytics, today released its Q1 2024 Global Business Optimism Insights report. The quarterly report shows a downturn in global supply chain continuity due to geopolitical tensions, trade disputes, and climate-related disruptions in maritime trade causing both higher delivery costs and delayed delivery times. The report also indicates that businesses—having endured multiple challenges such as the pandemic, conflicts, and monetary tightening—are now adopting a growth mindset, as reflected in the overall optimism index.

“Global businesses are now maintaining a balance between optimism and realism and are adopting a more pragmatic stance towards their future. Leaders have endured frequent economic disruptions over the past few years and have become more adept at dealing with them; however, they remain cautious of geopolitical conflicts and supply chain disruptions,” said Neeraj Sahai, President, Dun & Bradstreet International. “This shift in mindset suggests anticipation of additional growth in the forthcoming quarters, albeit with an underlying sense of continued caution."

Business leaders are looking at growth opportunities and risks through multiple lenses, as substantiated by Dun & Bradstreet’s report. While concern remains over the global supply chain, businesses appear to have a higher tolerance for potential risk and greater adaptability, as a result of their experience managing disruption over the past few years. Key findings from the report’s five indices reveal:

  • The Global Business Optimism Index increased by 6.6% in Q1 2024 compared with Q4 2023, indicating that businesses in advanced economies now feel more confident about their ability to absorb geopolitical and policy shocks, and are focusing more on growth opportunities.

  • The Global Supply Chain Continuity Index fell sharply by 6.3% for Q1 2024 compared with Q4 2023, with suppliers’ delivery time and delivery cost indices both deteriorating. Executives also report that climate-induced disruptions and trade disputes are contributing to decreased optimism. This index declined equally for both advanced and emerging economies, with each receding 6% from the last quarter.

  • The Global Business Financial Confidence Index increased by 10.1% in Q1 2024 compared with Q4 2023; in addition, liquidity is expected to increase across firms of all sizes and businesses are more optimistic about their competitive positioning, particularly large firms with greater resources employed in liquidity risk management.

  • The Global Business Investment Confidence Index rose 10.7% in Q1 2024 compared with Q4 2023. This reading reflects a high absolute level of optimism and a growing consensus that major central banks in advanced economies have reached a peak in the current interest rate hike cycle.

  • The Global Business Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) Index increased 7% in Q4 2023 to 61.9, in contrast to a 4.7% decline in Q3 2023, reflecting a positive shift in the commitment of firms worldwide towards sustainability practices. The favorable sentiment towards ESG practices reflects an elevated awareness of sustainability, underscored by the recent agreement among nations at the COP28 conference.

*Descriptions and information about the indices can be found on page 25 of the report.

"Despite the acknowledgement of economic and political headwinds across the globe, it’s important to note that business leaders are expected to begin 2024 with a relatively positive economic outlook,” said Arun Singh, Global Chief Economist, Dun & Bradstreet. “However, confidence in the resilience of supply chains is facing pressure due to continued geopolitical tensions and climate events. These factors have compelled companies to reroute supply chains, which has led to congestion along transit routes. Business leaders are experiencing both higher delivery costs and delayed delivery times—a reminder of pandemic-related challenges.”

About the Global Business Optimism Insights Report

The Global Business Insights Optimism report is an amalgamation of five indices computed for 32 economies including the Global Business Optimism Index, Global Business Supply Chain Continuity Index, Global Business Financial Confidence Index, Global Business Investment Confidence Index and Global Business ESG Index. These five indices were created by synthesizing findings from a survey of approximately 10,000 businesses in the last quarter alongside insights from Dun & Bradstreet, leveraging the firm’s proprietary data and economic expertise. These indices reflect overall business optimism and expectations about supply chain continuity, financial and investment conditions and ESG initiatives. The indices range from 0 to 100, with a reading above 50 indicating an improvement and a reading below 50 indicating a deterioration in optimism.

View the full report and corresponding records here.

About Dun & Bradstreet

Dun & Bradstreet, a leading global provider of business decisioning data and analytics, enables companies around the world to improve their business performance. Dun & Bradstreet’s Data Cloud fuels solutions and delivers insights that empower customers to accelerate revenue, lower cost, mitigate risk, and transform their businesses. Since 1841, companies of every size have relied on Dun & Bradstreet to help them manage risk and reveal opportunity. For more information on Dun & Bradstreet, please visit www.dnb.com.


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